The peace process in the Bangsamoro, in the southern Philippines, is at a critical stage. Our report draws on field research in Maguindanao, Lanao, Sulu, Davao, Zamboanga and Manila, conducted between June 2023 and February 2026. It presents the current state of play in the southern Philippines.

More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.

The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...

opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea... "We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."

“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.” www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.” @philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩 By @fmalufti.bsky.social www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia

Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR

✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk

news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u... "While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."

Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.

🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia. Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president. Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.

US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’

Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election. The polls, however, have been postponed. I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist: open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...

Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...

www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/... ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC Registration: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort 25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social. Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation: www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines. But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans

As we mark our 30th anniversary, new challenges lie ahead and our work remains essential at a moment of danger for the world. As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.

NEW REPORT | The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

"With so much of Philippine power concentrated in the capital with varying degrees of devolution to local vassals, Malacañang’s hand is never truly hidden."

As 🇺🇸 Def Sec warns 🇨🇳 attack on Taiwan “could be imminent”, @CrisisGroup takes a look at Taiwanese Pres Lai Ching-te 1st yr. ➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught. ➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds.  ⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

Anwar asked about Chinese coercion of Philippines in SCS. Says ASEAN “working towards” code of conduct (🤔) but right now “no real clarity”. Says PRC-Phil tensions “exaggerated” & “no way out except engagement”.

US & PH militaries will train in maritime security, live-fire & amphibious operations. The GSDF (incl Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) & ROK marines will take part in disaster relief training. 1st time ARDB participates with ROK peer in multinat training exercise asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...

MANILA, Philippines — Tension erupted in a clash on Monday between residents of Barangay 262 and 264 in Tondo, Manila and members of a demolition team backed by the police. READ: tmt.news/2120940

"Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has called for a joint ASEAN action plan to address the growing tariff threat. Anwar said.. that, while bilateral talks between member states and the U.S. would continue, the bloc must present a united front." www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...

In case you missed it: Our report @crisisgroup.org. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

Everyday legacies of the Pacific War. Santa Mesa, Manila.

Tune in to our event! The report: www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

Featured on a TV segment in the Philippines yesterday talking about the Bangsamoro Peace Process and why it matters. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UBZ...

NEW VIDEO | U.S. - China | Asia's Military Modernisation As the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific transforms, we introduce our new series of reports that look into the intensifying great power competition between the U.S. and China. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

On the ground in the Bangsamoro region in the Philippines to see how the local and midterm elections in the region shape national politics and the peace process.

Today Sudan enters its third year of war. As the world’s largest humanitarian crisis deepens, there are growing risks of the conflict escalating. Let’s hope the UK’s one day conference today focuses on how to stem the country’s destruction & fragmentation. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...

🚨 We’ve launched our new online blog this week, “The Analyst’s Notebook”, where our @crisisgroup.org experts will share reporting and analysis on breaking news events in real time. @bcfinucane.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updat...

The events of 11 March still occupy the Philippines. After former president Duterte's arrest, some thoughts for G-Zero: www.gzeromedia.com/news/watchin... More recently, I talked on a podcast about this and other topics relating to the Philippines. Tune In! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...

ONLINE EVENT | What’s Driving the Red Sea Crisis and How to Stop It? 8 April 2025 | 4pm Sanaa | 3pm Brussels | 9am Washington Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Understaffed and underfunded, Haiti’s foreign mission is struggling to rein in surging gang violence. Instead of rushing toward elections, the transitional government should focus on the nuts and bolts of responsible governance. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

“What has been happening in the last week has been an incredible trauma for most of the European countries in a sense [that] their world is collapsing onto them and they feel betrayed.” Gérard Araud on Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

“fresh militant attacks are a reminder that a cessation of hostilities is more often an effect of peace talks than a precondition.” My thoughts on violence in southernmost Thailand.

There is no one remedy for Latin America’s sprawling criminal ecosystem, though experience offers evidence of what has not worked. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

NEW EPISODE | The Horn This week, we discuss the escalating tensions between #Ethiopia and #Eritrea, the political crisis in #Tigray and whether a renewed outbreak of war can still be averted. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...