The British government tries to get Anthropic to expand in the UK www.ft.com/content/6bfd...

Philosophers cite more empirical sources than they used to www.update.news/i/192954532/...

The reactions to this does not reflect well on this site. Some people need to update fast.

There's been a debate on how “intelligent” AIs could become, but however you define that concept, they could hugely outmatch us at manipulating the world. www.update.news/p/how-smart-...

There's been a debate on how “intelligent” AIs could become, but however you define that concept, they could hugely outmatch us at manipulating the world. www.update.news/p/how-smart-...

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre. www.ft.com/content/3880...

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

Some argue that Trump helps the European left – a "reverse Midas" effect – but this is overstated. His demands for Greenland didn't stop the Danish right from making gains in yesterday's election. www.update.news/p/right-wing...

Canadian growth has fallen behind the US and the rest of the OECD in the last decade. Part of the problem is brain drain to the US: a Bank of Canada working paper estimates that 40% of the most skilled workers may have emigrated. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

Chinese people used to be much shorter than Americans, but thanks to better nutrition, this has changed. Chinese girls are now taller than American girls, and Chinese boys are almost as tall as American boys. But the gap with young Dutch people remains large. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

There's a whole line of literature on the ratio between the lengths of your index finger and your ring finger, which supposedly is some biomarker that tells us all sorts of things about your personality and behavior. Great podcast episode, like a miniature diorama of science taking a wrong turn.

Agree, and past experience suggests most deskilling is like that - sensible and unproblematic

It's incredible that these mistakes slip through now that we have LLMs that can easily catch them

The new World Happiness Report is out. But is Finland really the happiest country on earth? According to Professor @erikangner.com, whose research is about happiness and decision-making, that’s not true. Hear him explain what’s going on. #InternationalHappinessDay #Research #StockholmUniversity

Psychology has a whole cottage industry in which people come up with some construct that is essentially "attitudes/beliefs/expectations/feelings about X", and then the central claim is that this construct is a super important determinant of future X outcomes.>

Anthropic could be on track to overtake OpenAI in revenue thanks to a rising market share among enterprise users www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

The US is much less dependent on foreign oil than it used to be. Some may have thought that would mean fewer foolish wars in the Middle East, but it could cut the other way. www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

Anthropic could be on track to overtake OpenAI in revenue thanks to a rising market share among enterprise users www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

Canada’s population is shrinking for the first time on record In today’s newsletter, I also cover: The Anglosphere is falling in life satisfaction rankings Anthropic could overtake OpenAI Southern Europeans live longer than richer northerners And more www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

As AI gradually improves, I think it'll give plenty of warning signs of the risks it poses. And I expect this will attract a lot of attention from governments and society at large, even in the absence of spectacular ‘warning shots’. www.update.news/p/society-wo...

The English-speaking world is falling in rankings of life satisfaction (The Economist)

As AI gradually improves, I think it'll give plenty of warning signs of the risks it poses. And I expect this will attract a lot of attention from governments and society at large, even in the absence of spectacular ‘warning shots’. www.update.news/p/society-wo...

In today's newsletter: • Democrats now favorites to win both the House and the Senate • Only half of Ukrainian refugees wish to return • Lower-ranked American colleges have lost nearly half their students • Markets expect a short war in Iran • And more www.update.news/p/democrats-...

In today's newsletter: • Democrats now favorites to win both the House and the Senate • Only half of Ukrainian refugees wish to return • Lower-ranked American colleges have lost nearly half their students • Markets expect a short war in Iran • And more www.update.news/p/democrats-...

After the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, a debate has broken out about the relationship between the US government and AI companies. Today, I give an overview of takes on government monopoly on violence, misuse of AI regulations, and more. www.update.news/p/who-should...

It was a pleasure to be interviewed on the Giving Intelligence Podcast! We talked about how to identify highly effective charities, bridging donors' heart & head motivations, and the psychological science behind Giving Multiplier (@givingmultiplier.bsky.social).

New short paper w @jkalla.bsky.social ! Candidates gain from moderation, but less than many theories expect. Many conclude voters must not care about issues. This is wrong. Small *average* effects mask large effects on specific issues & are consistent with widespread issue-based voting 🧵

After the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, a debate has broken out about the relationship between the US government and AI companies. Today, I give an overview of takes on government monopoly on violence, misuse of AI regulations, and more. www.update.news/p/who-should...

Rent in rent-regulated vs second-hand unregulated flats in Sweden's three largest cities. Rents are 2.5x higher on the second-hand market in Stockholm. An arbitrary and poor system. (Monthly rent in SEK/square meter.) fastighetstidningen.se/nyhet/gapet-...

"Many observers concluded that the multipolar world had arrived ... The reality is that the world is still unipolar." Many have definitely underestimated US power. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Polymarket's estimate that the Iranian regime will fall this year has declined from a peak of 56% down to 34% www.update.news/p/the-chance...

This actually understates the gap between England and the US. After grants and discounts, in-state students at US public colleges pay ~$2,500 per year. English bursaries are much smaller. www.update.news/p/why-all-th...

If per person spending on the elderly goes up and the elderly share of the population also goes up, everything else gets squeezed and everyone is mad. But it’s what the voters say they want. www.slowboring.com/p/the-demoni...

Though southern Europe has a lower GDP than northern Europe, it has a higher life expectancy ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

The Gulf defence spending boom that follows this war is going to be quite something.

The EU employment rate keeps breaking records on the back of rising employment in southern Europe ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web...

Is the US having a religious revival led by Generation Z, as some claim? No, it’s not: Gallup shows that secularisation continues and the youngest are the least religious of all. www.update.news/p/the-myth-o...

Half of the youngest British voters now say they intend to vote for the Greens yougov.com/en-gb/tracke...

Coefficient Giving directed over $1b in 2025, the most in our history. I wrote a more personal annual letter this year, focusing on what a decade of grantmaking has taught me, how I'm thinking about AI, and how we're grappling with giving at this scale. 🧵 Linking the PDF here: tinyurl.com/3sh3mwhp

Is the US having a religious revival led by Generation Z, as some claim? No, it’s not: Gallup shows that secularisation continues and the youngest are the least religious of all. www.update.news/p/the-myth-o...

On average, the richest one percent of American men have partners just two years younger than themselves. Striking contrast to some online discourse.

The debate about AI progress involves many complex considerations and can be hard to follow. Today's newsletter gives an overview of incisive takes on the automation of AI R&D, METR's time horizon metric, and more. www.update.news/p/how-fast-i...

Metaculus forecasters now expect "weak AGI" to arrive later than they did just before the launch of ChatGPT

The debate about AI progress involves many complex considerations and can be hard to follow. Today's newsletter gives an overview of incisive takes on the automation of AI R&D, METR's time horizon metric, and more. www.update.news/p/how-fast-i...

After Maduro and Khamenei, Cuba's leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is expected to be next. Polymarket estimates a 61% chance he is out by 30th June From today's newsletter, also with links on India's mismeasured GDP, Orbán expected to lose, and more. www.update.news/p/cubas-lead...

There are now more tech workers going from the US to Europe than the other way around

Teaching economics or social sciences? Concepts like the unemployment rate or labor force participation can be tricky to explain clearly. Our new Work & Employment page breaks these down with clear explanations and visualizations — all free to download and use in your classes and presentations.

The debate on population decline is often confusing. I distinguish between: * The transition problem: a falling population affecting the age structure * The size problem: fewer people being bad in itself * The balance problem: decline in well-functioning countries www.update.news/p/why-does-p...

Is it better to eat locally produced beef or imported fruit and vegetables? The difference is enormous: since transport only accounts for five percent of greenhouse gas emissions from food, what you eat completely dominates where it comes from. www.update.news/p/trump-prov...