Very cool competition that the Financial Times held in 1914 to forecast the border changes in WWI. ‘Precisely seven years after the competition closed to entries, the FT announced: “No map sent in is even approximately accurate as compared with the final lines.”’ www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

Why is AI not having more of an impact on jobs? Some say it's because of quirky preferences or human irrationality. But imo it's that we underestimate the messiness of the world, and overestimate effective AI capabilities. -> www.update.news/p/ai-just-is...

Global inequality between countries has fallen in recent years, as poorer countries have grown faster than richer countries. As a result, within-country inequality is now as large as between-country inequality. www.update.news/p/london-hou...

British and American housebuilding rates have been remarkably correlated over the years, but no longer. Housebuilding has fallen in Britain and especially in London, where it’s now the lowest in the rich world, due to the mounting costs of regulations. www.update.news/p/london-hou...

Why it’s good news that more people are dying of cancer: they live long enough not to die from other causes. www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...

It's harder to understand reality than we intuitively think

I found a lot of links this week for my newsletter, so here's a brief Friday bonus post featuring Anthropic's incredible revenue growth, new twice-yearly injectables against high blood pressure, and more. www.update.news/p/links-anth...

Is the slow automation of restaurant and supermarket jobs really just about a preference for the human touch? I’m not so sure. www.update.news/p/why-are-so...

Very interesting map in the latest @stefanschubert.bsky.social newsletter: www.update.news/p/why-are-so...

Jon Stewart’s ignorant dismissal of economics is telling – it has low status in many circles. It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency. I think the philosophy of economics is underrated. www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...

Why it’s good news that more people are dying of cancer: they live long enough not to die from other causes. www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...

China had almost 30 million births in the 1960s, but they have since fallen to less than 8 million. Since US and Indian births haven't fallen as much, this will have geopolitical consequences later this century. www.update.news/i/187511992/...

Jon Stewart’s ignorant dismissal of economics is telling – it has low status in many circles. It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency. I think the philosophy of economics is underrated. www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...

Europeans have soured on the US after the Greenland crisis, and while I expect favourability ratings to improve if a Democrat wins in 2028, long-term trust may be harder to rebuild. www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...

What do AI benchmarks actually tell us? Many of them give precise answers, but not to the most relevant questions. AI matches experts on OpenAI's GDPVal, but not on real jobs. We need studies that are more relevant to the real world. From today's newsletter: www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...

This idea is common but I don't think it's true. People can understand this type of growth (maybe not the mathematical formalisation, but the underlying concept). But they often have a prior that something will stop it. That may be right or wrong, but it's not inability to understand.

I reviewed an earlier version of this paper. I think it's interesting, because you can tell by reading it that evolutionary psychology still lacks a loyal opposition and a healthy error culture. It's a defensive paper, targeted at people who believe evolution stops at the neck, YouTubers, _others_

Even if individuals may need to accept death, we shouldn't accept it as a civilisation. www.update.news/p/american-e...

American EV sales almost halve after the scrapping of the tax credits. Meanwhile, Chinese sales continue to surge, opening up a huge gap between the US and China (and some European countries). Extrapolate this a few years and the car fleets will look very different www.update.news/p/american-e...

Today's newsletter has an adjusted format. Lower-paying and harder jobs have faced a greater risk of automation for centuries. Often with schadenfreude, some say AI is ending it. But if so, we don't see it yet. Also in today's newsletter: 1/5 www.update.news/p/the-centur...

The AI agents at Moltbook aren't really talking to each other that much - 93.5% of their comments get no replies www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lvqma...

The Doomsday Clock is broken www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...

In the latest data, 44% of Harvard professors who retired were 75 or older www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/01/jhj-...

The Doomsday Clock is broken www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...

Eurozone unemployment has never been lower

In today's newsletter: According to the Doomsday Clock, we've been dancing on the edge of doom since 1947. That doesn't make sense. If there isn't any disaster year after year, you have to infer the risk was lower than you thought. 1/5 www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...

There's a lot of gloom, but I’m encouraged by the fact that American voters reject Trump's most aggressive policies, like ICE's tactics and his efforts to acquire Greenland Trump is erratic, but over the long run, policy is hugely influenced by the median voter. -> www.update.news/p/american-v...

In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future. But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed. In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD. www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...

Enjoyed this. Good point that is always missing from debate

In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future. But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed. In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD. www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...

Over 10% of a game of Premier League football is waiting for someone to take a throw in theanalyst.com/articles/pre...

In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall. US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35. But... -> www.update.news/p/how-postpo...

In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall. US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35. But... -> www.update.news/p/how-postpo...

Apparently, this comparison is a reason for allowing China to build its new London embassy, not against it. 🙃 www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Everyday crime has seen an extremely steep decline in the US since the 1980s/1990s. US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks. From my latest newsletter: www.update.news/i/185179290/...

In my newsletter: Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy. I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia. Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more. www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...

Everyday crime has seen an extremely steep decline in the US since the 1980s/1990s. US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks. From my latest newsletter: www.update.news/i/185179290/...

Trump's net approval rating at -19%, a record low for the second term, according to @economist.com

If so, one could say this about many things. "Agricultural productivity is responsible for modernity." "Fossil fuels are responsible for modernity." That something is a necessary condition for something doesn't mean it's the one "true" cause.

I spend more and more time on Substack. I find it surprisingly good and stimulating. You can find me here: substack.com/@sachaaltay

In my newsletter: Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy. I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia. Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more. www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...

In my newsletter: why are many countries facing a pension crisis? Many commentators blame the old, but that's overly simplistic. Every generation contributes to high pension spending, in part because we'll benefit from it ourselves one day. www.update.news/p/every-gene... ->

In my newsletter: why are many countries facing a pension crisis? Many commentators blame the old, but that's overly simplistic. Every generation contributes to high pension spending, in part because we'll benefit from it ourselves one day. www.update.news/p/every-gene... ->

We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions. There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely! Like the difference between solar and biofuels. 🧵based on my latest newsletter: www.update.news/p/the-libera...

We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions. There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely! Like the difference between solar and biofuels. 🧵based on my latest newsletter: www.update.news/p/the-libera...

There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right? With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...

Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots. From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else. www.update.news/p/the-prefer...

Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots. From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else. www.update.news/p/the-prefer...

Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI. From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else. www.update.news/p/social-med...