I gave a talk on the case for epistemic discipline at EAGx Nordics. When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...

“We’re good at solving problems, but not as good at seeing how other people solve theirs” @stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap. It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation: buff.ly/7qE6E7i

We're often much more rational as actors than as outside observers of other people's actions. It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes. www.update.news/p/the-ration...

Shootings have fallen more than 2/3 in Sweden the last three years

You can’t dismiss AI revenue growth as hype the way you might dismiss investments or high valuations. www.update.news/p/the-tables...

AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data. But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break. www.update.news/p/the-tables...

AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data. But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break. www.update.news/p/the-tables...

People love sharing the OkCupid chart where women find most men unattractive, and the rumour that one in ten children has a different father than they think. But some stories are too juicy to be true. www.update.news/p/women-dont...

Enjoyed the linked post by Alex Imas: "If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself." aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...

AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

There's been another good debate among economists about the impact of AI on the labour market, this time centred on a nice essay by Alex Imas. But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be. www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

Why clinical trials are broken & how to fix them: a reading list forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsMxed...

Sweden and German intelligence agencies report that Russian official economic data is fake www.ft.com/content/04a9...

Good news everyone, at least it's a draw!

When ChatGPT was launched, almost all users were men – but now, women are the majority www.update.news/p/will-ai-dr...

Anthropic just passed $1 trillion in valuation on Ventuals. OpenAI still has the most users but have fallen behind in terms of valuation. www.update.news/p/nature-stu...

The debate over AI and jobs is too nearsighted, and should consider where we're eventually heading. AI leaders talking about widespread automation isn't a mere marketing strategy. www.update.news/p/growth-won...

The list of Swiss constitutional amendments triggered by citizen-initiated referendums is strikingly populist. www.update.news/p/american-c...

Incredible turnout in Hungary, especially in Magyar-voting Budapest

Magyar now 80% likely to replace Orban as PM of Hungary according to Polymarket

Anthropic overtakes OpenAI on Ventuals, a (small) market for private company valuations

American students are moving toward higher-paying college majors www.update.news/p/american-s...

Clinical trials today are highly bureaucratic, expensive, and time-consuming. Most trials fail to recruit enough participants to answer their questions at all. This great post by Adam Kroetsch explains how things got this way. www.clinicaltrialsabundance.blog/p/clinical-t...

Might AI gradually become less politically salient, like the internet? I don’t think so, since unlike the internet, AI will change drastically with time. www.update.news/p/driverless...

I think revenue extrapolation may be a bit underrated as a method for predicting transformative impact from AI. While it certainly has its issues, I think it comes with fewer contentious assumptions than some rival methods. Recent revenue growth speaks against very long timelines.

Why is public discourse so much more AGI-pilled in the US than in Europe? I discuss five reasons: 1. Higher AI adoption rates 2. The leading labs are in the US 3. Cultural openness to speculation 4. A thinner safety net 5. A larger public discourse www.update.news/p/why-does-t...

Why is public discourse so much more AGI-pilled in the US than in Europe? I discuss five reasons: 1. Higher AI adoption rates 2. The leading labs are in the US 3. Cultural openness to speculation 4. A thinner safety net 5. A larger public discourse www.update.news/p/why-does-t...

The British government tries to get Anthropic to expand in the UK www.ft.com/content/6bfd...

Philosophers cite more empirical sources than they used to www.update.news/i/192954532/...

The reactions to this does not reflect well on this site. Some people need to update fast.

There's been a debate on how “intelligent” AIs could become, but however you define that concept, they could hugely outmatch us at manipulating the world. www.update.news/p/how-smart-...

There's been a debate on how “intelligent” AIs could become, but however you define that concept, they could hugely outmatch us at manipulating the world. www.update.news/p/how-smart-...

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre. www.ft.com/content/3880...

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

Some argue that Trump helps the European left – a "reverse Midas" effect – but this is overstated. His demands for Greenland didn't stop the Danish right from making gains in yesterday's election. www.update.news/p/right-wing...

Canadian growth has fallen behind the US and the rest of the OECD in the last decade. Part of the problem is brain drain to the US: a Bank of Canada working paper estimates that 40% of the most skilled workers may have emigrated. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

Chinese people used to be much shorter than Americans, but thanks to better nutrition, this has changed. Chinese girls are now taller than American girls, and Chinese boys are almost as tall as American boys. But the gap with young Dutch people remains large. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

There's a whole line of literature on the ratio between the lengths of your index finger and your ring finger, which supposedly is some biomarker that tells us all sorts of things about your personality and behavior. Great podcast episode, like a miniature diorama of science taking a wrong turn.

Agree, and past experience suggests most deskilling is like that - sensible and unproblematic

It's incredible that these mistakes slip through now that we have LLMs that can easily catch them

The new World Happiness Report is out. But is Finland really the happiest country on earth? According to Professor @erikangner.com, whose research is about happiness and decision-making, that’s not true. Hear him explain what’s going on. #InternationalHappinessDay #Research #StockholmUniversity

Psychology has a whole cottage industry in which people come up with some construct that is essentially "attitudes/beliefs/expectations/feelings about X", and then the central claim is that this construct is a super important determinant of future X outcomes.>

Anthropic could be on track to overtake OpenAI in revenue thanks to a rising market share among enterprise users www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

The US is much less dependent on foreign oil than it used to be. Some may have thought that would mean fewer foolish wars in the Middle East, but it could cut the other way. www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

Anthropic could be on track to overtake OpenAI in revenue thanks to a rising market share among enterprise users www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

Canada’s population is shrinking for the first time on record In today’s newsletter, I also cover: The Anglosphere is falling in life satisfaction rankings Anthropic could overtake OpenAI Southern Europeans live longer than richer northerners And more www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

As AI gradually improves, I think it'll give plenty of warning signs of the risks it poses. And I expect this will attract a lot of attention from governments and society at large, even in the absence of spectacular ‘warning shots’. www.update.news/p/society-wo...

The English-speaking world is falling in rankings of life satisfaction (The Economist)