2024 Hansen Ratings Analytical All Region Teams Region 1 Off MVP: Ryon Thomas, QB, FDU-Florham Def MVP: Jacquez Mabin, DL, Delaware Valley Sp Tms MVP: Shane Drake, K/P, Bridgewater State Coach of the Year: Mike Cerasuolo, Springfield hansenratings.github.io/2024%20Regio...

Advanced Stats Preview for the #D3FB #StaggBowl North Central (-17.0) vs. Mount Union

Merry Christmas! Website is updated, and ready for the #d3fb #StaggBowl. hansenratings.github.io

Advanced Stats Preview #D3FB Semifinals North Central (-18.5) vs. Susquehanna

It felt like last weekend was a little crazier than a normal #d3fb Round of 16, so I decided to check some historical comps using my ratings. First, the breakdown of teams who made the quarterfinals according to their ranking before the Round of 16 games:

Game spreads if I use the #d3fb composite ratings and a stock 2.25 HFA: Susquehanna (+0.75) vs. Bethel North Central (-19.15) vs. Springfield Johns Hopkins (+2.95) vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor Salisbury (+1.95) vs. Mount Union

The top 50 #d3fb teams of 2024, using a composite of 6 different predictive rating systems.

Advanced Stats Previews for the #d3fb quarterfinals. Susquehanna (+3.0) vs. Bethel

Which #d3fb teams have the best records in one-score games since 1997? The top team might surprise you (if you don't know anything about DIII football)!

#D3FB Playoff Round 3 Advanced Stats Previews Wartburg (+3.0) vs. Bethel

Website is updated after Round 2 action. #d3fb hansenratings.github.io

Go 'Cats!

Updated #d3fb title odds. NCC's odds go down with a win. UMU & Linfield cement themselves as a top contender.

With the Linfield game still pending (but with a commanding lead), my model's predictive ratings for the 16 remaining #d3fb teams: 1. NCC 54.2 2. SJU 44.7 3. Linfield 40.8 (will go up) 4. UMU 40.7 5. Bethel 40.2 7. DePauw 39.0 11. UMHB 37.2 12. Cortland 37.1

Early lines for the #d3fb round of 16 SJU (-12.9) vs. Susquehanna Wartburg (+3.3) vs. Bethel Cortland (-10.9) vs. Springfield North Central (-21.7) vs. Hope Linfield (-11ish) vs. UMHB DePauw (-13.8) vs. JHU Salisbury (+0.1) vs. RMC Mount Union (-9.1) vs. CMU

The #d3fb playoffs have just kicked off on ESPN+. If you want a primer on any of the games, here's my advanced stats previews for each of the 16 games today. @redditcfb.com @sickoscommittee.org @d3football.bsky.social

The fit for this San Jose State kicker is preposterous

We put out a podcast this morning, themed to the day. If you are driving or shopping or just avoiding your relatives, listen in. We predict the Round 2 scores, plus hear from coaches about what they're thankful for and how they are celebrating with their teams. www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2... #d3fb

Show me a picture on your phone that has your energy that isn’t a selfie.

Trying out this starter pack thing. Hit me up with anyone you think I should add. Not all these accounts are exclusively DIII sports folks, but I'm throwing in anyone who dabbles, as well. go.bsky.app/5RgquEK

An in-depth breakdown of my advanced stats preview for the Mount Union/John Carroll game this weekend. A perfect way to spend a 15 minutes (or less, if you listen at 1.25-1.5x speed) while you're pretending to work tomorrow. #d3fb youtu.be/FSBD6LnXNdQ

Frank Miriello's W&L coaching tree now includes two D-1 FBS coaches (Rice, Navy) #d3fb

dont want to blow up his spot on the other site, but for my Kansas fans, I got a lovely DM this morning from Lance Leipold, congratulating us on the EP Bowl and thanking us for the support of DIII football. He's, of course, a longtime DIII guy (UW-Whitewater) Was a very nice gesture IMO!

SMALLER-SCHOOL SP+ RANKINGS We've got 40 playoff games (plus the Bayou Classic), and a TON of close games in store. Grambling 24, Southern 23! Montana 27, Tenn St 20! Harding 30, GVSU 22! Montana W'ern 30, Dickinson St 28! Wartburg 25.8, UW-Platteville 25.7! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Bill('s model) is much more optimistic about my alma mater's prospects than I am (my model is). bsky.app/profile/espn...

Friends, the 2024 Extra Points Bowl is in the books. Here are a few things I learned from my foray into the bowl sponsorship business....from the good, to the stuff I'll want to try and improve for next year: www.extrapointsmb.com/p/four-thing...

Umm, y'all, Logan went off. All 16 games in thread.

#D3FB Playoff Round 2 Advanced Stats Previews Mount Union (-0.5) vs. John Carroll

Website is updated after Round 1. Not much change in teams' overall championship odds, but that will change after the second round. Some slight shuffling around the top of the predictive ratings thanks to Bethel's close call vs. Coe. hansenratings.github.io #d3fb

Get up, it’s game day! We have D3 bowl games (including the bowl we’re helping to sponsor, the Extra Points Bowl), D3 playoffs, D2 playoffs, FCS rivalry week, and the usual FBS action. Please make sure your chairs and tray tables are in the upright and locked position.

I don't feel like posting an 88 photo thread on here as well as on Twitter, so here's a link to all of my advanced stats previews for ever #d3fb post-seaosn game this weekend. x.com/LogHanRating...

Almost all of our preview coverage is on the site now. 40 team previews, surprises and disappointments, two feature stories, a podcast and to come tomorrow: our score predictions. Check it out! #d3fb

ARMY - NOTRE DAME ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW

Might pretend I’m doing work today before heading out THE EXTRA POINTS BOWL. NOW ON YOUR PLAYSTATIONS

Post a non-religious picture you think of as holy

INDIANA AT OHIO STATE ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW

It's a week of late nights working on content this year every year. Creating 40 playoff team capsules is a lot of work involving a lot of people. We may end up dropping them a few at a time rather than all 40 at once. #d3fb

Why is a college sports newsletter sponsoring a DIII bowl game? Caught up with @mattbrown.bsky.social this week to talk about his fun sponsorship, among other things, for this week's SBJ college newsletter: www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/SB-Blogs/New...

Hmm, why indeed? :)

HEY EVERYBODY, THE EXTRA POINTS BOWL IS OFFICIAL JOIN US THIS SATURDAY IN CANTON, OHIO WE'VE GOT THE MARIETTA PIONEERS BATTLING THE WESTMINSTER TITANS IT'S GONNA BE A BANGER www.extrapointsmb.com/p/the-2024-e...

Website is updated for the postseason. #d3fb hansenratings.github.io

SMALLER-SCHOOL SP+ RANKINGS * Brawl of the Wild and NDSU-South Dakota is a HELL of an FCS set closer * SWOSU check: THEY WON, 50-0!! * D2, D3 AND NAIA PLAYOFFS START THIS WEEK, BABY, sorry that's a lot of all caps for a Monday morning docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Cool thing for #d3fb! It will have the best chance of success if the Red Sox really use their marketing muscle and the academia leverage their alumni and communities. www.d3football.com/notables/202...

Our weekly podcast is out, where we discuss how the bracket ended up, we interrogate the algorithm and discuss how close other teams came to getting in, hand out game balls and more! Linfield coach Joe Smith is our guest. Check it out. #d3fb www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2...

I'll have more analysis later, but for now - here are the results of the model's simulations of the official #d3fb national tournament. North Central not the odds-on favorite, but they're the clear front-runner.

This year, the NCAA spots us the at-large teams thanks to the NPI -- we already know who the 12 at-large teams are. That makes creating a bracket slightly easier, but not incredibly easy. Here's the projected bracket Greg and Pat put together: www.d3football.com/playoffs/202... #d3fb

With just next week's games before the #d3fb bracket is set, here's my final mock bracket of the season.