New on the substack: Where'd the explosives go? cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/footballno...

DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD is now live on cfb-graphs.com. You can net success rates for all games in a week, or for a specific team, see their net success rate in every game.

📊🏈COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S MOST EFFICIENT TEAMS 2025 FULL SEASON ↗️🟢: Good Offense, Good Defense ↖️🔵: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work ↘️🟡: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work ↙️🔴: We're Trying Our Best!

📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD? Season Net Success Rate FBS vs FBS 2025 ~DISASTER GRAPH~

Today, for paid subscribers of Phantom Island: @statsowar.bsky.social joins me to talk about what roster lessons other teams can take from Indiana and Miami (and what red herrings we should avoid) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...

For Phantom Island subscribers, I'm back on with Ryan Nanni talking about the roster-building lessons we can learn from Indiana and Miami this year. Enjoy.

📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD? Net Success Rate in the National Championship

Enjoyed this conversation with UM Professor Justin Angle and Montana's Chief Revenue Officer Marcus Welnel about the state of money in college athletics. Check out A New Angle wherever you listen to podcasts!

🏈📊CFP SEMI-FINAL 1 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW MIAMI VS OLE MISS

🏈📊New Year's Eve Bowls Advanced Stats Previews RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN cfb-graphs.com

a reminder that rushing overview cards are live on cfb-graphs.com

Tech’s defense against Oregon’s offense is gonna be some absolute heavyweight stuff. Can’t wait.

1000 yard rushers (regular season only) in FBS: 2025: 31 (4 QBs) 2024: 39 (5 QBs) 2023: 39 (2 QBs) 2022: 38 (1 QBs) 2021: 46 (2 QBs)

1000 yard receivers (regular season only) in FBS: 2025: 11 2024: 21 2023: 24 2022: 23 2021: 30

www.cfb-graphs.com/protected/ru... new feature

"Wins Above What An Avg Team Would Be Expected to Have Against Your Schedule" v1 1 IND +7.21 2 UGA +6.75 3 OHST +6.31 4 TAMU +6.12 5 BYU +5.64 6 OKLA +5.55 7 ORE +5.50 8 BAMA +5.37 9 TT +5.31 10 OM +5.29 11 ND +4.79 12 VAN +4.62 13 MIA +4.29 14 UTA +4.16 15 MICH +4.16 16 TUL +4.05 ... 19 JMU +3.34

📊🏈 College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best

🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!

2. @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social on strength of schedule podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...

Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:

Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations. Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s. ➡️Better "normal" efficiency ⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency

One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact): Further right => Better scheme/OL Further up => Better RB talent/ability

📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!

everything i post here is something i posted on X/twitter that i remembered to post over here too

EPA by Quarter Chaos Table

🏈📊WEEK 12 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA IOWA AT USC TEXAS AT GEORGIA NOTRE DAME AT PITT

🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11 🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!

🏈📊DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD? NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11

🏈📊WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS Kent State @ Ball State NIU @ Toledo

How are offenses doing in creating quality drives and finishing those quality drives? Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive FBS vs FBS through Week 10

How often do teams run passes with pre-snap motion? How often do they target the motioned player when they do?

📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 10 🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬅️⬆️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!

if you're not currently signed up for PI, you can do that over at phantomisland.show!

Godfrey-less Week continues on Phantom Island (for paid subscribers!): @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social join me to discuss Strength of Schedule as the ultimate GRR THIS TEAM IS COWARDS metric. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...

Big 12 situational offensive efficiency 2025

📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!

🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS CINCINNATI @ UTAH USC @ NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE MIAMI @ SMU see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!

🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS CINCINNATI @ UTAH USC @ NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE MIAMI @ SMU see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!

📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!

🏈📊FRIDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS WEEK 9 NORTH TEXAS @ CHARLOTTE CAL @ VIRGINIA TECH BOISE STATE @ NEVADA

weird chart alert: How much do I trust your results?