site was down overnight, should be back up again

buckle up, ya'll @statsowar.bsky.social already causing Monday anxiety

stat previews are up for week 5 cfb-graphs.com

cfb-graphs dot com

New on Phantom Island: @statsowar.bsky.social joins me to talk about the 247 Team Talent Composite, the NFL Franchise Tag, and reimagining how we think about rosters and stars and all of that. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/r...

Quick programming note: I probably won't be posting previews over here. If there's enough demand, maybe? But in general, it is just a bunch of time to cross post without and effective tool. Will have announcement about where to find previews soon.

A special bonus Phantom Island went up today for paid subscribers; it's got @stevengodfrey.bsky.social talking to @statsowar.bsky.social about how teams are approaching roster building, the new role of the bag man, and what the player personnel community is (and isn't) willing to share.

🏈PRESEASON AVERAGE WIN TOTALS v1🏈 Here are the results of 10,000 sims of the college football regular season, based on my preseason priors. Everyone's got to start somewhere, here's where I have all 136 teams starting this fall.

🏈PRESEASON AVERAGE WIN TOTALS v1🏈 Here are the results of 10,000 sims of the college football regular season, based on my preseason priors. Everyone's got to start somewhere, here's where I have all 136 teams starting this fall.

one like and i'll post avg win totals from my preseason sim this afternoon

FBS TEAMS RETURNING 2024 HC, OC, DC, and QB in 2025 (v1.1) Feedback welcome; let me know and we'll update.

Talk to your kids about 9-win UTEP

“Understanding football by analysing aggregate statistics is similar to trying to understand music by analysing the number of times each note is played.” - "How to Win the Premier League", by Ian Graham

A most cursed QUAD BOX by YouTube TV via @statsowar.bsky.social.

think i'm going to just post weird workshop stuff over here purple: score a TD or attempt a FG green: score a TD navy: attempt a FG red: lose possession

The quality of a book about analytics in sports is a function of how often it makes you want to put the book down and go code something.

I, for one, would love another full calendar year of talking about hypothetical postseason scenarios instead of the on-field product.

Couldn't sleep last night, so coded something up. Here's a simple app where could can see every FBS team's offensive performance this season, graded by the "Kiffin Rubric" below. Will continue to make tweaks, add defense, etc. Feedback welcome. cfb-graphs.shinyapps.io/kiffin-report/

Sat down and cranked out some words about turning over a roster in college football. t.co/P3BGBinOym

shout out to the dads

SEC is 25% of the Omaha field, I see no reason they shouldn't have let all 16 teams in the tournament to make up 25% of the postseason

and then there were 8

updated college world series chaos table 7/8 spots filled

Sat down and cranked out some words about turning over a roster in college football. t.co/P3BGBinOym

My brain has become accustomed to the dopamine rush of postseason college baseball; nothing excites me today knowing I won't get any more until Friday.

on to super regionals

Was going to wait until the regionals ended, but go crazy, internet stranger

on to super regionals

Was going to wait until the regionals ended, but go crazy, internet stranger

college world series chaos table

Couldn't sleep last night, so coded something up. Here's a simple app where could can see every FBS team's offensive performance this season, graded by the "Kiffin Rubric" below. Will continue to make tweaks, add defense, etc. Feedback welcome. cfb-graphs.shinyapps.io/kiffin-report/

Interest look at how offensive lines have changed in college football due to the transfer portal with @stevengodfrey.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...

NEW EPISODE FOR SUBSCRIBERS (free trial/preview) We're founding a college football program, Split Zone Duo State. (not really but play along) @statsowar.bsky.social is here to help us set up our front office for the modern game. www.splitzoneduo.com/p/college-fo...

Enjoyed talking to Richard about building a college football front office on @splitzoneduo.com, subscribe to listen here: www.splitzoneduo.com?r=1k42f&utm_...

Bold idea for a college football postseason: Conference Championships are decided in a single game after a fiercely-contested regular season. Then after those we pair up teams with similar resumes to play a slate of destination games that are a celebration of college football for players and fans.

If you're interested, here are some slides I used to give a talk this weekend on AN ECONOMIC APPROACH TO ROSTER MANAGEMENT FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS, with an emphasis on where the economic and analytical approach could work together. t.co/ysej0KZmx8

Sat down with Steven Godfrey to talk about trends in NIL and team-building for offensive line. Enjoyed the opportunity to discuss roster-building strategy and a data-driven approach to constructing an essential part of a college football program, the offensive line.

has to do with this graphic @statsowar.bsky.social put on twitter — bringing back a lot of the people who were involved in this (drew + RBs + OL) and then putting them in the second year of kotelnicki's offense has the potential to be really, really fun

From the other site: Checking in on the 12% rule.

Just published on the newsletter - "Putting the E in Explosives: A Note on Accounting for Game State in Big Play Rate" where I demonstrate a simple two-stage model approach to understanding rate stats in college football a little more in-depth. cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/putting-th...

Just published on the newsletter - "Putting the E in Explosives: A Note on Accounting for Game State in Big Play Rate" where I demonstrate a simple two-stage model approach to understanding rate stats in college football a little more in-depth. cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/putting-th...

Ladies and gentlemen, Blake Horvath.

SERIOUS POST: I'm looking for a [paid] intern to help with some roster maintenance and basic data entry work, with an opportunity for growing and learning more about the modeling side of things. @sumersports.bsky.social

This week on FOOTBALLNOMICS: Coaches have to plan and build not just for this season, but for next season and the next. How do we know where a team sits in a competitive window? How can teams use that to strategize about personnel decisions? Up now on my newsletter t.co/Yikms9FGxG

This week on FOOTBALLNOMICS: Coaches have to plan and build not just for this season, but for next season and the next. How do we know where a team sits in a competitive window? How can teams use that to strategize about personnel decisions? Up now on my newsletter t.co/Yikms9FGxG