Patrick O'Neil
@upspatrick.bsky.social
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📥 836
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Here for Ukraine. Here for democracy, anywhere.
reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Evergreen Intel
about 7 hours ago
Remember, Iran's whole strategy is to make this as long and costly for the U.S., Israel and their allies as possible such that Iran's enemies give up and that the regime survives.
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Who suffers from this war?
2 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
The Economist
2 days ago
Even if Iran unblocks the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, acceding to Donald Trump’s recent threat, global oil and gas markets would remain undersupplied for months, hurting the world economy
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Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous
Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war
https://econ.st/4bBbqEc
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Evergreen Intel
2 days ago
How does capturing Kharg Island (regardless of how intact it is taken) force the Iranians to open the SoH? How is the US forced to take Kharg Island at all?
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Iran's Tasnim News Agency: If Iran's their energy sector is attacked the only light Israel will have is the light from Iranian missiles
2 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Anyone with the most basic understanding of international relations and Iranian politics would not be surprised by the following analysis from the Israeli media
2 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Shipwreck
2 days ago
American officials tell allies that the US will probably be forced to launch a ground operation to capture Iran's Kharg Island, according to two sources familiar with the matter.-i24 News
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Duncan Weldon
2 days ago
Via a friend.
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
The Ukrainian Review
2 days ago
🇺🇦🇺🇸🇮🇷 Zaluzhnyi: A potential US ground invasion of Iran would result in a military disaster for American forces. Modern battlefield technologies and attrition strategies make the presence of ground troops in such zones nearly impossible. Read more 👀
theukrainianreview.info/zaluzhnyi-on...
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Zaluzhnyi on US ground operation in Iran: military catastrophe
A potential US ground invasion of Iran would result in a military disaster for American forces. Modern battlefield technologies and attrition strategies make th
https://theukrainianreview.info/zaluzhnyi-on-us-ground-operation-in-iran-military-catastrophe/
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Matt Steinglass
2 days ago
America’s splendid isolation is both a reason for its power and a reason its citizens tend not to understand how anything works in other parts of the world
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Jay Rosen
2 days ago
"Each pseudo-scoop is as ephemeral as a mayfly. But who can resist?" David Remnick comments on reporters calling Trump's cellphone for a handy exclusive late, late into the night.
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
Irresistible.
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Toilet paper redux
2 days ago
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www.gjopen.com/challenges/1...
2 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Mohamed A. El-Erian
2 days ago
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
open.substack.com/pub/mohamede...
#economy
#markets
#middleeastwar
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The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets
The Context: A Shift from Disruptions/Relative Market Complacency to Structural Damage/Deeper and Wider Concerns
https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Beggar thy neighbor time
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
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Six fuel ships bound for Australia cancelled as Bowen concedes ‘flow of oil to Asian refineries has slowed’
Energy minister says war on Iran creating ‘uncertain environment’ but insists government doing ‘all the preparatory work’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/22/six-fuel-ships-bound-for-australia-cancelled-as-bowen-concedes-flow-of-oil-to-asian-refineries-has-slowed
2 days ago
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3 days ago
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Iranian Press TV report on the fatalities from an air strike. All the civilian deaths we are ignoring
3 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
NY for Ukraine
3 days ago
Thank you so much!! All 50 states jump for joy when any state gets closer to sending its armored truck!!! 😊💙💛🛻
#50States4Ukraine
#RedeemUSA
Be awesome like Greg:
car4ukraine.com/campaigns/50...
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50 States for Ukraine
Car for Ukraine has joined efforts with representatives from all 50 states of the USA. During this campaign states will have a friendly competition helping various units at the hottest spots of the fr...
https://car4ukraine.com/campaigns/50forua
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
NY Times Pitchbot
3 days ago
Whether it’s Barack Obama wearing a tan suit to a press conference or Donald Trump saying that he’s glad that Robert Mueller is dead, both presidents shattered some of Washington’s most sacred norms.
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3 days ago
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Even in a best case scenario you'd still have a restricted flow of ships out of the Gulf.
add a skeleton here at some point
3 days ago
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Summer travel should be interesting
3 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Evergreen Intel
4 days ago
Iran launches 60 drones at Saudi Arabia today alone. Not bad numbers for a 100% destroyed military.
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Justin Wolfers
4 days ago
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years.
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Foreign Affairs
4 days ago
“Israel is Balkanized between a well-educated, high-earning population and an undereducated, low-earning one,” writes Eran Yashiv. Over time, this divide could make the country poorer, less democratic, and more militaristic.
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The Two Israels
A socioeconomic divide shapes the country’s politics—and its aggressive foreign Policy.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/two-israels?utm_campaign=bs&utm_content=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bluesky
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Boots on the ground mean "a couple more weeks" of higher oil prices? Do these people understand anything?
4 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Alan Elrod
4 days ago
Lenin was bad actually
add a skeleton here at some point
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Why did I become a professor when I could have become a highly paid bullshitter like this guy? Posted this on 3/12.
4 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦
4 days ago
🇫🇷 Macron: This morning in the Mediterranean, the French Navy intercepted and boarded another vessel from the shadow fleet, the Deyna. The war involving Iran will not deflect France from its support for Ukraine, where Russia’s war of aggression continues unabated.
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Just gotta repost this from 4 days ago. Idiots.
4 days ago
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This only makes sense if the Iranian regime were not facing extinction. In that case, extending the suffering as far and wide is completely rational. Welcome to asymmetry.
add a skeleton here at some point
4 days ago
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Attacking Pars seems unwise
add a skeleton here at some point
6 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
OSINTdefender [UNOFFICIAL]
6 days ago
Israeli officials have confirmed that Israel targeted Iran's largest natural gas processing facility this morning in the Bushehr Province of Southern Iran.
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦
8 days ago
😳 Members of the European Parliament do not know where Iran is on the map, - TMS. Most of them pointed to Bulgaria, Turkey, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia
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This makes an attack on Kharg even more likely.
add a skeleton here at some point
8 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Josh Marshall
8 days ago
Iranian Oil Is Going Through the Strait Just Fine
talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/irani...
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Iranian Oil Is Going Through the Strait Just Fine
Here’s a detail about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that...
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/iranian-oil-is-going-through-the-strait-just-fine
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What
8 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
News Eye
9 days ago
UPDATE ON THE HORMUZ COALITION (Mon, March 16): 🇫🇷 France: REJECTED 🇬🇧 UK: REJECTED 🇮🇹 Italy: REJECTED 🇪🇸 Spain: REJECTED 🇯🇵 Japan: REJECTED 🇳🇴 Norway: REJECTED 🇨🇦 Canada: REJECTED 🇦🇺 Australia: REJECTED 🇩🇪 Germany: REJECTED 🇨🇳 China: NO RESPONSE 🇳🇱 Netherlands: NO RESPONSE 🇰🇷 South Korea: NO CONFIRMATION
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول
10 days ago
BREAKING: A drone has crashed into the US Embassy in Dubai.
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Bahrain oil hit again it appears...
bsky.app/profile/fare...
16 days ago
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16 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Patrick De Haan
16 days ago
ALERT:
#GasPrices
appear to be rising to $3.29/gal in
#Houston
today. This is an extremely rare Sunday price cycle due to the Iran situation.
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
The Associated Press
17 days ago
BREAKING: An Iranian drone attack caused “material damage” to a desalination plant, Bahrain said. It is the first time an Arab country has reported Iran striking a desalination plant. Follow live updates.
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Live updates: Iran says oil storage facility in Tehran is hit in latest airstrikes
Another major explosion rocked Tehran late Saturday as pillars of flame rose above an oil storage facility in Tehran, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised “many surprises” for the next phase of the week-old conflict.
https://bit.ly/4lhkuSZ
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Shipwreck
17 days ago
The main building of Kuwait’s Public Institution for Social Security was struck by an Iranian drone, resulting in material damage
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Eugene the Stoner
17 days ago
This is a war crime punishable by The Hague.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Hegseth to the Hague.
17 days ago
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
Peter Gleick
17 days ago
Multiple news outlets are reporting a US attack on an Iranian
#desalination
plant. If verified, this violates international law protecting
#water
systems during wars, and it sets a dangerous precedent, given intense dependence of Gulf countries on desalination.
timesofoman.com/article/1691...
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Iran's FM condemns US attack on Qeshm's freshwater desalination plant, warns of grave consequences
US President Donald Trump announced that Iran promised not to attack its neighbours anymore
https://timesofoman.com/article/169185-irans-fm-condemns-us-attack-on-qeshms-freshwater-desalination-plant-warns-of-grave-consequences
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reposted by
Patrick O'Neil
MeidasTouch
17 days ago
Full statement:
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