Hmmm makes you think

Anyone got 1984 federal pendulum (ie estimated pre-election margins)? @kevinbonham.bsky.social @benraue.com @pappubahry.com

A reporter from the Australian is one of the group of signatories to the Pentagon's new press corps rules which prompted a universal walk-out from credible news outlets.

Omg the first 10 minutes is Cuomo ranting against rando online anti-Israel hypocrites (of which there are many) and Bremmer repeatedly trying to steer the convo to the words of people who actually matter. But Cuomo can’t let go. Chris is one online dude.

The screenshot claims it actually made a profit for the govt, not just the economy. Nothing about that in the link; deets would be nice.

Unsurprisingly he seems more more popular with the grunts than with the brass.

The #Newspoll federal poll was taken between 29 September - 2 October 2025, sample of 1264, online survey. Here is the table graphic as it appears on page 4 of The Australian, 6 October, including voting, leader approval ratings, better Prime Minister, and a question on house prices. #auspol

How expensive should university education be and who should pay for it? The map is taken from this excellent video discussing the future of university education: buff.ly/gjiYZGl

Good on you for spending less time online my dear young people!

Imagine no redistributions from now to next fed election, then a uniform 5.2% primary vote swing from ALP to L/NP (& all other votes remain the same) So national 2pp is 50-50 On pendulum: L/NP gains 14 seats from ALP Also, on crossbench: Grn take Griffith, Brisbane, Richmond, Macnamara from ALP 1/2

Good point. (ChatGPT estimates UK citizens about 17% born o/s; Oz citizens born o/s, yes, at ~30%.)

🚨 NEW: Australian attitudes towards immigration are virtually unchanged from last year, according to a new poll from Essential, with voters divided on whether it is "generally positive" or "generally negative"

Me on One Nation’s recent poll surge, overseas counterparts, and the big fat potential disinformation weakness in our electoral system. insidestory.org.au/one-nations-...

Guy makes fair points, arrest was OTT, but also he does seem to have gone troppo.🤪

Australia pretty much the same as UK. Contrast with all the American “new world” countries, settled/colonised/conquered centuries earlier when Europeans still believed in hobgoblins, burned witches etc.

Australia versus our big neighbour to the north.

On the street, it's got a dozen names. Some call 'em White Devils. Simple, classic. Some cats call 'em The Levelers, 'cause they take you from a 10 on the pain scale down to a zero. Smooths you right out. You call it Tylenol. I call it death.

Trump seems to love Albo immediately after a phone call, so there might be a fair bit of spectacular, private crawling.😼

The #Newspoll quarterly aggregate federal polling summary (not a new poll) of data from 14 July to 11 September 2025. www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #auspol

68.7% Yes overall. Known as the referendum that ended Apartheid and gave non-whites the vote. But question was rather mundane. "Do you support continuation of the reform process which the State President began on 2 February 1990 and which is aimed at a new Constitution through negotiation?"

“Hunt is long gone, and these days the object of Sheridan’s besottedness seems to be Matt Canavan, the coal-revering Queensland LNP senator” Sez me insidestory.org.au/toxic-emissi...

For amusement only - after a "private investigator" bizarrely presumed to be able to identify my ideology from a single tweet, I asked four AI programs to place various Australian psephologists on a political orientation scale from 0 (extreme left) to 10 (extreme right).

Sadiq Khan has said a record number of Americans have applied for British citizenship following the election of Trump. “It’s also our liberal values that make us stand out – celebrating our diversity in London as a strength, not as a threat to society.” www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

So they’ll probably do it?

Honestly this is not getting as much coverage as it should. Korean auto workers in the US kidnapped by ICE and kept in inhumane conditions for over a week.

The huge differences in income by race and ethnicity in the US remains remarkable. Source: buff.ly/jp5gmlL

#Morgan ***Averages June 2023-25*** Chinese-born Australians ALP 48 L-NP 34 Grn 11 ON 1 IND/other 6. My 2PP estimate 61.3 to ALP. Indian-born Australians ALP 45 L-NP 39 Grn 8 ON 2 IND/other 6 My 2PP estimate 55.9 to ALP. www.roymorgan.com/findings/100...

Christ alive, this guy. What a four-square copper-bottomed rotter.

Me on that 85% of Australian-Indians who supposedly voted ALP this year. t.co/EXAFA8wsmz

Zelenskyy would be absolutely crazy to go to Moscow. So much upside and zero downside, no negative repercussions,for Putin detaining, disappearing or killing him. Ok, Chinese might go “tsk tsk”.

Heard @iandunt.bsky.social on LNL explaining simple solution to “migrant crisis”: let ppl apply for refugee status from o/s, accept those found bona fide. So... -Wd there be a cap(like Oz’s 20k pa)? Or unlimited numbers? -What about with ppl who still hop on boat, coz, eg, they were rejected? 1/2

Ruling over more than a third of all (!) humans is insane. Literally insane. With this kind of power it’s hardly a surprise that you want some sort of divine blessing.

Me on immigration as a political issue and Related Matters. Keywords: White Australia, Ruddock, Megalogenis, Trump, boats … insidestory.org.au/selling-immi...

Single member districts are a remnant from a pre-political party era when MPs represented ppl in geographic areas. For over a century in Oz, with MPs doing what majority in party dictates, that has obviously been: LOL🤪. Apart from independents. Of which there are increasing numbers.

Oh, Russia wants peace, but its definition of what peace involves is nothing Ukraine could remotely accept.

Finding a religious country that is very accepting of homosexuality is difficult. China is the outlier of a very unreligious country that is also very unaccepting of homosexuality. Chile, Taiwan, and Slovakia hang out in the middle not caring about anything all that much. Source: buff.ly/gYw5IPb

Not to mention the global warming challenge as ppl naturally embrace getting wealthier.

Another basic fact fail in Bernard Keane's unnecessary contributions on Tas politics. "It’s been nearly 20 years since Labor last governed in Tasmania". False. Labor lost government in March 2014. #politas

No skewing? Mustn't have been commissioned by a think tank.

Me on the crazy meme journos and even academics have bought into about Millennials + Gen z now outnumbering Boomers, it's a tectonic shift don't you know?! At @insidestory.bsky.social while stocks last. insidestory.org.au/the-trouble-...

With Gareth Ward's resignation, there will need to be a by-election for his seat of Kiama on the NSW south coast. I've now published my guide to that by-election #nswpol

*Finland and Russia looking at each other in astonishment*

So what happened was I used @TheEconomist 's democracy index & @Int_IDEA's Model of Electoral Management database to produce table below. In theory, independent (generally commissions, eg AEC) is best model, rather than govt dept. So what's the deal with numbers below? Well...1/2

share of americans who prefer congressional districts to be drawn to advantage the dems: 9% advantage the gop: 11% not give an advantage to either: 67% (thank you, fellow americans) not sure: 13% -yougov

Correct.

Watch the numbers change around if they do get involved. (Not just an American thing.)

Young US Americans now spend much more time alone than they did fifteen years ago. I'd expect this to be part of the explanation as to why we've seen a sharp increase in depression and poor mental health. Source: buff.ly/YR0rR24

A not-so- crap Senate for the govt as last time, but still limiting. They can get a majority with Greens or Coalition, that’s it.

So, like, I took leafoutof @benraue.com's book, checking out relationship b/w change in no. of candidates& change in informal vote, but splitting seats into all variety of being part of one seat in 2022 & another in 2025. Subset: changes from 7 cands to 8, & vice versa. www.tallyroom.com.au/60644

@benraue.com Is it still the case that polling place ids do not reliably mean the same actual polling place across different (recent) years?