Victorian Liberals make it stop challenge but it's still not stopping - contested ballot for deputy leader mooted. #springst www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victori...

Mercury reporting the Tasmanian Nationals are seeking candidates to run in the LegCo and next state and federal elections. Will the party vet candidates in any way whatsoever? Will candidates involved in notorious homophobia episodes again be selected? #politas

Farcically, it has only now become officially reportable that Hobart Councillor Louise Elliot was suspended for seven days for a code of conduct breach in ... OCTOBER 2024! #lgtas #politas

A consequence of the Somyuwrecking of Victoria's local government election system: shelling out for by-elections instead of countbacks www.theage.com.au/politics/vic... #springst

#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 37 L-NP 27 Green 10 IND 11 others 15 My 2PP estimate about 59-41 by last election flows, but probably slightly lower as some of "others" will be One Nation surge.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/what... What's the most federal electorates you have been to in a day? (Caution: procrastination hazard!)

So the urgent parliamentary sitting the Coalition demanded has ended up again splitting the Coalition. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...

#Freshwater ALP 33 L-NP 28 ON 19 Green 11 others 9 2PP 53-47 to ALP 16-18 Jan

Entire National Party quits what used to be the Coalition frontbench, it will now be the Liberal frontbench (which was also briefly a prospect post election)

#Morgan ALP 28.5 L-NP 24 ON 21 Grn 13.5 Ind/other 13 2PP respondent prefs 53.5 to ALP (+1.5) Last-election prefs 53 to ALP (+1) Jan 12-18 www.roymorgan.com/findings/996...

I don't think I have seen these occasional character traits polls in agree/disagree format before, only the agree figures #Newspoll

Found the poll report (such as it is) for the annual IPA Australia Day #pollshapedobject . The interesting thing about it is it was taken pre-Bondi. ipa.org.au/research/aus...

#Newspoll 55-45 to ALP

#ResolvePM ALP 30 L-NP 28 ON 18 Grn 10 IND 7 other 7 Their 2PP (respondent prefs?) 52-48 to ALP (-2) My conversion 51.2 to ALP (-2.7 an term worst from any pollster) Jan 12-16.

Annual IPA Australia Day #pollshapedobject is doing the rounds but none of the reports I've seen have the in-field dates (particularly relevant this year) or any link to the question wordings.

Liberal election loss review delayed after Peter Dutton raises legal concerns www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...

Jacqui Lambie Network deregistered as a party at Tas state level; it remains federally registered www.theadvocate.com.au/story/915414... #politas

I regret to inform the Senate that the AFR has been foolish enough to publish John Black again. Thankfully it's mostly just completely vapid punditry which is about as good as John Black gets.

The City of Canning mayor has won a $250,000 defamation case against a ratepayer who posted about him on social media. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01... #wapol #auslaw #defo

#EMRS online panel in the field today. - Australia Day date - Gun control - Helen Burnet (!) Not voting intentions so this is not the quarterly omnibus. #politas

Bernie Finn has joined One Nation. #springst

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/why-hunter-2025-cant-be-used-to-do-last.html Why Hunter 2025 Can't Be Used To Do Last-Election Labor vs One Nation Preference Flows

Another unusual poll reading #Morgan ALP 30 L-NP 30.5 Grn 13.5 ON 15 Ind/0ther 11, Jan 5-11 2PP (respondent) 52-48 to ALP (-2.5) last election also 52 (-3) changes from combined Nov-Dec sample, last week of that one was weaker than rest. www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp...

Question here is who is the party's registered officer with the power to nominate candidates. #saparli

Good morning to the 74th federal electorate I have visited #Dobell (see kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2017/01/how-... )

ALP candidate for Huon announced, also Clare Glade-Wright (IND) running pulsetasmania.com.au/news/labor-u... #politas

Tasmanian Labor! www.themercury.com.au/news/politic... #politas

#FoxHedgehog (Fox&Hedgehog actually) ALP 29 L-NP 25 ON 21 Grn 14 other 11. Same dates as DemosAU Jan 5-6 2PP respondent prefs 53-47 to ALP. (my estimate 52.8) Alternative 56-44 ALP vs ON www.foxhedgehog.com.au/news-den/the...

It's a bird it's a plane it's #DemosAU with ALP 29 L-NP 23 ON 23 Green 12 others 13 Their 2PP 52-48 to ALP (my estimate 52.6). They also have a 50-50 ALP vs ON number. Cautions below.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/this... This Person And Why They Are Wrong: Episode 1, Wasted Vote Guy

The APC statement for a YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News states that standard voting intention and leader approval questions were asked. Have the results of these questions been reported by the sponsor? If so where? If not why not? d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Sk...

And as expected on this bat channel, Sam Groth will stand down as deputy leader www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01... #springst

A conspiracy theory is circulating on Twitter, posted by one Matt Barrie quoting Riccardo Bosi (always a red flag that) about the use of Smartmatic in the 2023 NSW election, based on Venezuela election usage. #nswpol

This from Helen Burnet's op ed today is intriguing. Is she or is she not saying the Greens specifically were remiss in the manners suggested? If so on what issues? #politas

SA Ind (Lib defector) NIck McBride in custody on assault and breach of bail charges. Entitled to presumption of innocence but this will hang over contest for MacKillop (Lib 22.6) if he recontests #saparli

Sam Groth to retire at this year's Victorian election (vacancy in Nepean LIB 6.4% which he won with a large swing but Liberals should be able to hold it), this raises the question is there any point him continuing as deputy leader. #springst

While arguing with OPV supporters is better than arguing with FPTP supporters, 2025 federal again shows why full OPV is bad. In several seats the majors got a serious kick up the pants from non-majors without quite losing the seat, but only because of compulsory preferences.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/hele... Helen Burnet Quits The Greens! #politas

Google AI should be put back into testing for a decade, so embarrassing. The wombats in the Swan St Park are sculptures.

A shocker for Tasmanian Greens as Helen Burnet unexpectedly quits party, puts them down to 4 seats #politas t.co/HcC11ddgEH

My biggest election-related wish for 2026 is that Group Ticket Voting is scrapped in Victoria in time for the election. Second biggest is that the anti-preferencer movement that has infested the other place collapses under the weight of its own cluelessness.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/12/2025... 2025 Site Review. Happy New Year to all readers!

Hahaha this is hilarious. Bernie Finn resigns from Family First! (HT @leopuglisi6.bsky.social )

Oh no Australia's weirdest niche sports stat is back! Boxing Day Test* finishes before first Sydney-Hobart yacht: 1986 ENG d AUS 1991 AUS d IND 1996 WI d AUS 2006 AUS d ENG 2021 AUS d ENG 2025 ENG d AUS *Must start 26/12 Cricket 6 - Yachts 39

Not been easy to find numbers from this but apparently (per 6News) recent Qld state #Redbridge/Accent looks like this, pretty poor for ALP who have been competitive in a few Resolve samples but not much else.

Another day, another dubious #ResolvePM issues question wording. Especially wrt Palestine march ban, it's debatable both whether the idea would tackle antisemitism and whether tackling antisemitism is the primary motive of proponents.

The #Newspoll quarterly aggregate federal polling summary (not a new poll) of data from 29 September to 20 November 2025. article: www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) pdf of table: origin.theaustralian.com.au/wp-content/u... #auspol

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/12/aust... Australia's Worst Oppositions: Phase 2 Not-A-Poll Results

Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...

Some internal Liberal robopoll but report ($) fails to say which company, fails to state the sample size and Liberals would still lose after preferences anyway on these numbers. #actpol www.canberratimes.com.au/story/914070...