And #Morgan makes three. ALP 28 LNP 21.5 ON 26 (-5.5) Grn 13 Ind/other 11.5 2PP respondent prefs ALP 53.5 (-0.5) vs L-NP last election ALP 52.5 (-) my conversion ALP 52.5 (-0.3) ALP vs ON respondent prefs 53 to ALP (+2) my conversion 52.1 (+2.2) www.roymorgan.com/findings/102...

Interesting call by Melissa McIntosh to consider renaming the Liberal Party. To what? (One can hardly use "Conservative" while wishing to appeal to a modern audience.) www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...

#Newspoll Angus Taylor is the second fastest new Opposition Leader to reach a netsat of -20 or worse, beating Sussan Ley but slower than Alexander Downer. (In his first two months Downer was actually very popular!)

#Newspoll federal poll. Here is the table graphic as it appears on page 4 of The Australian, 29 June 2026, including primary votes, leader approval ratings. preferred PM, and four supplementary questions. No TPP is given. The poll was of 1235 voters, taken 22-25 June. #auspol

#Newspoll ALP 33 L-NP 17 ON 29 Grn 13 ind/others 8 My conversions ALP vs L-NP 56.3 to ALP (+3.1) ALP vs ON 54 to ALP (+3.5) Redbridge/Accent immediately gets a friend, looks like something is happening here.

#RedbridgeAccent ALP 30 L-NP 18 ON 29 Grn 14 Ind/others 9 2PP respondent prefs ALP 54 vs L-NP last election 55 to ALP my conversion 54.8 (+3.3) ALP vs ON respondent prefs 56 to ALP my conversion 52.7 (+3.3)

Couple of Votes and Proceedings records for #politas LegCo need fixing. June 24 item 16 first division "Mr Harriss" is included (he's not there anymore), if 6-6 is correct then I believe it should be Ms Forrest.

A close historic three-cornered contest in my own seat I hadn't been aware of: Michael Townley after missing preselection ran as an independent Liberal and missed the 2CP and victory by 234 votes after preferences. Later elected to Senate. #politas

According to this report Hobart Councillors have made 19 complaints against each other since the 2022 election. However quite a number of these are not yet showing on the determinations panel; are they still in progress? #lgtas #politas www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmani...

Clare Carnell seeking to form new ACT party archive.md/iuXPM #actpol

This is a nice Ley/Taylor before and after aggregation graph. The leadership switch initially undid some of the damage and stabilised the trend but the blowout has resumed. Oddly the trigger for it resuming appears to be Labor's budget.

Moira Deeming's preselection could be revoked. But the damage was done long ago. The party failed to apply what I will now call the Family First Test. archive.md/1SeoU#select...

This one has come up in the One Nation food security nonsense discussion. Don't like to have to say this about a pro welfare finding but this is actually a #pollshapedobject www.news.com.au/national/bre...

Is there any truth in the rumour that the Premier has done this just to see if Anne Twomey makes a video about it?

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/06/hung... Hungry Lies: One Nation's Food Security Fibs

All happening today, in WA Nedlands MP Jonathan Huston quits Liberal Party. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06... #wapol

Big news for #lgtas, looks like councillor numbers reduction has the green light (passed LegCo with some amendments to overall bill), potentially in time for the elections.

Party registration news: the party that changed its name back from Trumpet of Patriots to Australian Federation Party has now applied to change again to Reform Australia. Sigh. Just deregister and go away

Party registration news: Zali Steggall and Allegra Spender have filed paperwork to form Community Strong Australia. No other MPs have joined yet but Scamps and Boele are considering. archive.md/XBgFf

Anyway as ridiculous as the Victorian Liberals are, electing them would still not be as bad as retaining a government that looks like failing to get rid of Group Ticket Voting. See antonygreen.com.au/time-running...

Sigh. Victorian Liberals still failing "make. it. stop." challenge. #springst

#DemosAU NSW (state) ALP 32 L-NP 20 ON 27 Grn 13 others 8 No 2PP. My very rough estimates: ALP vs L-NP 59.7 to ALP ALP vs ON 56.2 to ALP #nswpol

Found this unusual. For decades I would characterise Richard Herr's position as having been sympathetic to minority government and here he's saying the crossbench are destabilising. #politas archive.md/WQxlT

The Mercury has uncritically reported Hobart First as "a new community group" campaigning at this year's elections. The Mercury should have investigated and reported the nature of any evidence that Hobart First has any members other than Jeff Briscoe. #lgtas

Graphics are circulating showing high One Nation support among "Other Language At Home" in the recent #DemosAU poll. This was an error in a graph issued by the pollster. The correct numbers are 33% for English Only and 21% for LOTE.

Oh no, Witch Mode (TM) has been enabled again and tonight I (white, black to move) won (in appalling time trouble too) from this ridiculously lost position. Anyone with any shame would just resign this.

#Morgan ALP 27 L-NP 17.5 ON 31.5 Grn 13.5 Ind/Other 10.5 2PP ALP vs L-NP (respondent) 54 to ALP (-0.5) (last election) 52.5 (-1.5) my conversion 52.8 (-1.5) ALP vs ON (respondent) 51 to ALP (-2) my conversion ALP trails 49.9-50.1 (ALP down 1.8)

#DemosAU ALP 27 L-NP 18 ON 30 Grn 13 Ind/other 12 DemosAU doesn't currently estimate 2PP. My 2025-based estimates ALP 52.8 vs L-NP (+2.6) ALP 50.4 vs ON (+0.7)

AFR (caution required since it is AFR) saying party involving some teal INDs could launch very soon and that "community" is in name. archive.md/IgCzW

Colleen Harkin (IPA, former Macnamara candidate and suing Vic Liberals over Pesutto loan) has quit the party and is widely expected to defect to One Nation. #springst

Hanson: "“If I have anyone elected to our party any more and walks off and leaves the party, it will destroy us,” Noted without comment.

One Nation expecting to be registered for #politas elections by end of August and stating they will run a full slate at the next state election. A full slate is 35 candidates. Hope their vetting will be better than JLN, Tas Nationals etc. archive.md/wip/hruGm

ABS statistics released today mean no change to state representation in the House at the next Federal election. Queensland falls short of gaining a 31st seat. The official determination will be made by the Electoral Commissioner in July. antonygreen.com.au/abs-populati...

Victorian Liberals foreshadowing a motion of no confidence in Jacinta Allan. Not sure there is any real point to it beyond that in Victoria you only get one per term and they haven't got around to using it yet. #springst

Blocked @marilynjs.bsky.social . Rabid poll denier in the other place years back, among other things. Disrespectful when I was performing a public service by correcting misreporting of a poll tonight and wouldn't delete so very happy not to see her here again.

Gerard Rennick People First has sigend a MOU to merge with Aus Citizens and form Australian Peoples Party. ACP= former Citizens Electoral Council. @drdrehistorian.bsky.social

Calling for plebiscites on things just because you don't agree with government policy is silly and legitimises the behaviour of right wing populists who will call for them on immigration etc. thepoint.com.au/new/260617-g...

Party registration news: Kim for Canberra has been expunged under the "you snooze you lose" provision (not contesting any elections in 4 years). Surprisingly I have this as the first deregistration under this rule since Tasmania First in 2006.

A poll result from YouGov is circulating claiming that 50% of voters think One Nation is ready to govern well right now. Sky's article has misrepresented their own poll and then this has been copied by others. This Q was actually only asked of the 38% of voters who are seriously considering ON.

Premier Rockliff has been censured by the House, 16-12 with a few paired. For: ALP, Greens, Johnston, George, O'Byrne, Garland, Burnet Against: Liberals, di Falco (SFF) , Razay #politas

Ogilvie legal fees are related to fighting the Integrity Commission. What? www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06...

#YouGov ALP 26 L-NP 21 ON 28 Green 13 Ind/other 12 Their 2PP (last election) 52 to ALP (+0.5) my conversion 51.3 to ALP (-0.3) Their ALP vs ON (respondent) also 52 to ALP (-0.5) my conversion 50.3 to ALP (+0.3)

I regret to inform the Senate that South Australian MLC Sarah Game (ex One Nation, ex Fair Go) has joined Family First. FF has announced she will be its lead LC candidate in 2030. #saparli

Blocked @damianne.bsky.social for off topic quote spamming

#ResolvePM Qld (state) L-NP 30 ALP 24 ON 24 Grn 10 IND 5 Other appears to be 7 (shown as 0 on graph in error). My 2PP estimate 56.0 to L-NP (+3.4) archive.md/w8YOU #qldpol

Latest instalment in the endless series of dubious #ResolvePM issue questions, this one re coal-fired power plants.

South Australia’s Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry has resigned. He has been on personal leave since the state election and Voice election, which was beset by problems including misplaced ballots and inadequate polling booth staff.

The SA government will introduce a bill to delay local government elections to April (instead of November) www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releas...

Nothing to see in Vic leadership challenge land today. It's probably too late to change and win and there is no convincing alternative anyway. #springst

Jane Howlett has now resigned from Cabinet, so now we really do need a new Minister or go back to a ministry of nine as in the 25-seat days. #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06...