#Spectre Strategy ALP 33 L-NP 25 Green 12.5 ON 17.5 others 12. 2PP 53-47 to ALP by respondent preferences but my last-election prefs estimate 55.1 to ALP Nov 4-17

#EMRS in the field (panel) for Tas (state) - voting intention, 3-way Pref Premier, leader favourability, Budget, party trust to handle issues etc. #politas

Whoops! #springst www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...

Sky says Speakman will be rolled for Kellie Sloane this week. #nswpol www.skynews.com.au/australia-ne...

#Morgan ALP 33 L-NP 27 Grn 12.5 ON 14 Ind/other 13.5 2PP 56.5 to ALP (-0.5) by respondent prefs 55 to ALP (-2) by last election My conversion for these primaries 55.1 to ALP (-1.6) n=5428, Oct 20 - Nov 16 www.roymorgan.com/findings/995...

Would be interested to see a copy of this "draft letter" and any accompanying correspondence to establish if there is any sign that it was actually only a "draft". The letter should be published. #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...

Jess Wilson wins Vic Liberal leadership, reports Sam Groth has narrowly beaten David Southwick to stay Deputy (watch that space) #springst

Gurmesh Singh elected unopposed as new NSW Nationals leader #nswpol www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw...

So I saw something saying there was a shock poll in the Herald-Sun showing the Vic Liberals in an election winning position. My priors were 1. the article will be by James Campbell 2. it won't be a shock poll 3. the claim will not be true. All priors were confirmed!

Sam Groth gets settlement against Herald-Sun, believed to include takedown, apology and hefty compensation www.theage.com.au/politics/vic...

Sounds like spill time tomorrow, anonymous Liberals saying Wilson will be leader #springst archive.is/g9F03

NSW Nats leader resigns unexpectedly. #nswpol

🍿"Two senior moderates said a majority of MPs in the faction would vote for Mr Hastie against Ms Ley if a ballot were held this week."

Well this is a lively one here. #Redbridge/Accent ALP 38 L-NP 24 Green 9 ON 18 (!) others 11 2PP 56-44 to ALP (My estimate off published primaries is 56.6) Nov 7-13 www.afr.com/politics/fed...

Trivia question: when was the last time someone won a House of Representatives seat at a general election with a primary vote lead of more than 50%?

Order to go ahead with Macquarie Point stadium passes House of Assembly 25-9 For: Liberals, ALP, O'Byrne, Di Falco (SFF) Against: Greens, George, Garland, Johnston, Razay On to the LegCo in early December. #politas

Carlo di Falco (SFF) who ran on an anti-stadium platform at the election, will be voting for the stadium. Says debate changed his mind + didn't know enough about issue during campaign. #politas

Excellent post regarding a ridiculous bug in our otherwise fine Senate system. This must be fixed before a Senator is elected who is not really the voters' choice.

Yet more evidence that Victoria must abolish group ticket voting to stop deceptively named parties with catchy names from being able to get elected off few votes, some of them cast by confused electors. #springst

Speaker Petrusma is on the ball and has pulled up Craig Garland for asking a "constituency question" on behalf of someone in Koonya (not in his electorate). #politas

Freshwater has finally released full details of their October poll, actually there is some very interesting data notwithstanding the heat death of the universe before it happened. freshwaterstrategy.com/2025/11/10/d...

Party registration news: Victorian Socialists' attempt to change name to Socialist Party has been provisionally rejected as AEC delegate has ruled too similar to Socialist Alliance. Party will try Australian Socialist Party instead. victoriansocialists.org.au/news/elector...

Some sceptical comments re stadium affordability here from key independents Dean Harriss and Bec Thomas #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...

#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 37 L-NP 28 Grn 10 IND 15* other 11 * generic IND option, inflated cf what would happen at election My 2PP estimate 58.5 to ALP (-0.5) #nswpol

As it's that particular anniversary just reposting a link to my article re pre-Dismissal polling and other pseph themes kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/12/psep...

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/10/tasm... I've expanded my article on the upcoming expansion of Clark to include a summary of the initial submissions. #politas

Be interesting to see other polls test these, these net likeability ratings from #ResolvePM for Hanson and Joyce are much better than usual for them. No raw figures alas.

Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.

🍿🍿🍿Even bigger chaos in the Canberra Liberals! #actpol

Redistribution initial submissions for Tas are up: Party positions: ALP - Clark takes Kingston and Kingston Beach Lib - Clark takes Bridgewater, Gagebrook etc Greens- primary option as per Labor, also suggests committee consider Clark = Hobart City and south, Franklin takes Glenorchy. #politas

#ResolvePM ALP 33 L-NP 29 Grn 12 ON 12 IND 7 others 6 Their 2PP by respondent prefs 53 to ALP (-2) My last-election conversion 54.6 to ALP (-0.8)

A Nuclear for Australia poll is getting some publicity but the design has a couple of leading Qs that make it more likely respondent will favour nuclear power. #pollshapedobject d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

Hanson misleading Americans about our election results at CPAC - the primary vote figure isn't quite right (actually 34.56%) but more importantly a primary vote isn't a "margin" and it isn't the second lowest winning primary vote ever anyway.

I'm appearing (remotely) at JSCEM this morning, here's the batting order.

#DemosAU Vic (state) 51-49 to Coalition, again not an election winning lead. #springst www.6newsau.com/post/exclusi...

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/demo... #DemosAU: Liberals Increase Lead Ahead Of Budget #politas

#DemosAU Tas (state) Lib 41 ALP 24 Green 15 IND 14 SFF 2 other 4 #politas pulsetasmania.com.au/news/rocklif...

Chess news: Australia's top two active GMs Bobby Cheng and Temur Kuybokarov have both won their round 1 matches in the FIDE World Cup and are through to play former world champs challenger Peter Leko and Indian megastar R Praggnanandhaa respectively.

The by-election for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will be held on November 29. Former Katter MP Nick Dametto held it on a 13.2 per cent margin but resigned to run for mayor of Townsville. Premier David Crisafulli announced the election date today in a campaign video. #qldvotes

Note also that exhaust appears artificially high for 2016 as a result of preference throws continuing after the winners were mathematically certain.

#Newspoll federal poll. Here is the table graphic as it appears on page 4 of The Australian, 3 November, including voting, leader approval ratings, better Prime Minister, and some historical opposition leader approval ratings. #auspol

Missed this but there was a #Freshwater federal poll "reported" in the Herald Sun yesterday but the report is missing the Greens primary and precise in field dates so it does not at this stage qualify for my aggregate.

Cry havoc etc. #Newspoll ALP 36 L-NP 24 ON 15 Greens 11 IND/other 14 2PP 57-43 to ALP

Silence from Canberra Liberals leader only making a bad situation worse: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-01/canberra-liberals-internal-feud-distracting-from-job-opposition/105959904

For the first time in its entire 26 year history The Coven (sporadic these days Hobart g*th club) will tonight be within 1 km of where I am living at the time.

Word has been circulating that the AEC are not going to redo the 2PP in Bradfield so we will never officially know whether Labor really won the 2PP there or not.

Excellent.

#DemosAU Qld (state) LNP 37 ALP 29 Green 12 ON 14 IND/others 8. 2PP 54-46 to LNP. Pref Premier (tends to favour incumbents) Crisafulli leads Miles 44-32. Better for LNP than recent Resolve samples. #qldpol

#DemosAU/Premier National NSW (state) ALP 37 L-NP 30 Grn 13 Others 20. 2PP 59-41 to ALP. #nswpol Full poll report #nswpol demosau.com/wp-content/u...

Sussan Ley's Joy Division nonsense so bad that the day has come when Bridget McKenzie is the adult in the Coalition room! www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...