It is three weeks since the last #Newspoll but I definitely do not expect one tonight as this is budget week and Newspoll in general comes out the weekend after the budget.

The primary vote swing to One Nation in Farrer is the biggest primary vote swing to a recontesting party in a federal by-election ever, except for the artificial case of Gwydir 1937 (swing to official ALP in absence of Labor (NSW).) Have been some bigger "swings" from scratch.

#pollshapedobject (exit poll) in aisle Sunday Mail re Stafford 1. Labor would probably win on their raw numbers anyway, even with open Greens HTV 2. Prepoll in this seat skewed to LNP by 1.5% 2PP in 2024, and this is early prepoll which may skew more. archive.md/ndFqe #qldpol

Looks like the Greens' result in Farrer will be their lowest in any Reps seat since either 2.21% in Flynn 2013 or 1.97% in Flynn 2007. This without a Labor candidate - not good!

I'll be doing a post mortem of the Farrer by-election on Tally Room live feed starting about 8:30 www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQaK...

Aw so sorry for those on twitter who were trying to claim the sign was legal.

This again highlights the need for publishing electoral material that gives a false appearance of endorsement by an electoral authority to be specifically regulated and to be a very serious offence.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/05/farr... Farrer By-Election Live Intro post up now, live comments from 6 pm.

Despite the general consensus that Farley (ON) will win easily that has seen him become a very short priced favourite in betting, voters on my site continue to mostly believe that Michelle Milthorpe (IND) will win #Farrer.

While I was overseas on 14 April, missed the news that Vanessa Bleyer has won preselection to replace Peter Whish-Wilson as Tasmanian Greens Senator later this year. State MHA Tabatha Badger was among those running for the position.

Saw some whingers about the Huon result on Facebook saying that it should have been first past the post. They forget that Dean Harriss also won the seat from behind using preferences in 2022. #politas

Fixed now but there was briefly an atrocious Huon typo on The Mercury's Facebook page which misspelled the defeated incumbent Dean Harriss's first name by ending it with a d.

Hmmm NSWEC sniffing around a 12 year old donations cold case involving some obscure Labor candidate Chris somebody #nswpol www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05...

#Huon is over bar a few postals! Glade-Wright (IND) gain from Harriss (IND) 52.5-47.5, first LegCo case of an IND unseating another IND since Mersey 2003 #politas

Huon count is back on and Dean Harriss has picked up a bit on postals and Petersen preferences - I think he would still like a larger lead but he's not gone yet #politas

Very poor answers from Liberal candidate for Farrer re preferencing ON 58 mins in here. Nats candidate does a far better job without the evasiveness. www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8mC...

I appeared on this ABC for/against re first past the post (2:32:50 on here) but I'm unimpressed and there won't be a repeat of such unequal treatment. In future ABC stations outside Tas wanting me to do these things will need to guarantee equal time. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

Abbott or Downer as president of the Liberal Party would both be hilarious, both got lost in the skyosphere away from anything that passes for mainstream politics long ago archive.md/C5xwC

Is this really a case of Farley not knowing the party line as Joyce suggests or is One Nation getting played? www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/one...

GetUp! tripping over the lowest bar of them all (on instagram no less) - how hard can it be to criticise Avi Yemini without getting your facts wrong? Fake parties exploiting group ticket voting cannot "steal the election". The election winner is decided in the lower house.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-... The Urban Myth That "Sack Dan Andrews" Was A Labor Front #springst

My conversions: 2PP: 54.5 to ALP (+1.8) vs ON: 54.5 to ALP (+2.9) - the 57 will be respondent preferences doing respondent preferences thing. A strong reading for Labor here given high Green vote.

Interesting development in the Stafford by-election: Greens have issued an open how to vote card. Not really obvious what all this is about. #qldpol

The SA Legislative Council distribution of preferences report is 5948 pages long. This is unnecessary. SA should make changes to simplify the distribution report and if necessary count system (amalgamated transfer values etc) as is the case for many other houses. #saparli

My 2PP conversion for this one 53.1 to ALP (-1.1) Generally not a lot of movement lately in either the classic ALP vs L-NP 2PP or the ALP vs ON shadow-2PP in my aggregates lately. Very stable around low 53s and mid 53s respectively.

#Freshwater ALP 32 L-NP 23 ON 25 Grn 12 others 8 2PP respondent prefs 53 (+2) to ALP my conversion 53.4 (+0.8) I am for now no longer applying a house effect to this federal poll, it is lately behaving pretty similarly to others.

Avi Yemini now also trying to recruit members for a "Muslim Votes Matter" Victorian party to direct preferences to One Nation. I don't really like him making my points for me but Victorian Labor needs to stop people even trying these shell games by scrapping Group Ticket Voting.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/05/woul... Would Scrapping Group Ticket Voting In Victoria Help One Nation? #springst

#RedbridgeAccent ALP 31 L-NP 22 ON 27 Grn 13 others 7 2PP respondent prefs 54 to ALP (+1) - previous sample had unusual respondent flow Last election prefs 55 to ALP (-2) My conversion 53.3 (-2.6) ALP vs ON 55-45 (+2), my conversion 52.8 (-0.7)

EMRS in the field with a Hobart City mayoral poll! Candidates included were Reynolds, Kelly, Zucco, Bloomfield, Posselt, Elliot. #lgtas #politas

I've seen some scrutineering figures from an experienced scrutineer suggesting Clare Glade-Wright is in a strong position in #Huon #politas

Strong retain result for Victorian Liberals in #Nepean. One Nation have just got into second on primaries but won't stay there after preferences and it wouldn't matter if they did. #springst

The elections today for Legislative Council seats of Huon & Rosevears are a milestone in #Tasmania's political history It's the 1st time: * donations to LegCo candidates have ever been disclosed * & candidates must publicly disclose donations of $1000+ *before* election day #politas #auspol

Former AEC head Tom Rogers to lead review into SA election count issues. A sign that this is being treated very seriously. #saparli www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04...

SA Liberal MLC Dennis Hood says he will not take the position of upper house president when parliament returns on Tuesday. Mr Hood had been linked to the role, but it would have deprived the Liberals of one of its six votes on the floor of the upper house. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05... #saparli

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/05/legi... Legislative Council 2026: Huon and Rosevears Live Plus Nepean (Vic) - intro post up now, live comments from 6 pm. #politas #springst

Tamara Smith to retire in Ballina next election. With what we have seen with loss of Green incumbent personal votes Greens will have to fight hard to retain this. #nswpol

Something I should highlight from this article, I am writing something longer about this but Druery's claim that he stops One Nation winning must not be allowed to stand. #springst www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Mark Latham loses vilification/harassment case vs Alex Greenwich on top of defamation loss over overlapping set of comments. Subject to appeal. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04... #nswpol

From yesterday #Morgan ALP 30 L-NP 22.5 ON 22.5 Grn 14 Ind/other 11 2PP respondent prefs 54.5 to ALP (-1) last election 54 to ALP (-0.5) my conversion 54.2 (-0.1) my ALP vs ON estimate for that poll 55.1 (-0.4)

#Essential (raw primaries with undecided left in, not same scale as other polls) ALP 30 L-NP 24 ON 25 Green 11 others 6 undecided 5 Their "2PP+" 49-47 to L-NP (=51.0, +0.5) - this skews to Coalition for some reason My estimate 51.5 to ALP (-0.4) vs ON 52.1 to ALP (-0.6)

Back in Tasmania now and will be getting up to speed with things as fast as I can tomorrow. Posting from overseas was harder than usual after travel laptop had a spectacular objection to local electricity and I had to rely on my mobile phone with an unreliable charger. Also just not much time.

#taschess news the current state top two Carl Gorka and Will Rumley tied for first 4/5 in Anzac Day weekender. Carl beat Will and had a draw with Noah Carpenter and a half point bye.

One Nation candidate for Farrer David Farley sought to join and run for ALP at 2022, failed vetting and rejected. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

Very sad #taschessnews recently with the death at 63 of until very recently Hobart President and TCA Treasurer Chris Shepherd.

Serious new claim re SA count. Would not itself be grounds for voiding Narungga but needs thorough investigation. #saparli www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-a...

Crisafulli trying one on with his suggestion Labor should replicate a double digit swing. One it is a Labor vacancy this time and two the state 2PP benchmark from the election having is 9% lower. Above say 3% swing for Labor would be OK.

#ResolvePM Vic (state) another one I'm very late on. ALP 27 L-NP 29 ON 21 Green 10 Ind 7 others 6. My 2PP estimate (not last-election because of ON rise) 52.8 to L-NP (+2.3)

Late on this one (overseas with very limited time and access) but #ResolvePM Qld(state) LNP 30 ALP 28 ON 17 GRN 11 KAP 2 IND 10* others 4 *Likely overstated My 2PP estimates Compulsory prefs 52.4 to LNP Optional prefs 49.2 (ALP 50.8) Watch what you wish for LNP.

Louise Elliot suspended from Hobart City Council again over findings of multiple Code of Conduct breaches (applicability of Code is subject to ongoing appeal). Another strike could be loss of seat but election is only 6 months away #lgtas pulsetasmania.com.au/news/hobart-...