#Newspoll 57-43 to ALP ALP 37 L-NP 28 Green 12 ON 11 IND/other 12 Albanese net -1 (47-8) Ley net -20 (31-51) Better PM (favours incumbents) Albanese leads 52-30 Monday - Thursday, predates Hastie quitting shadow cabinet.

Some real nonsense here. If the parliament is expanded there's no strong reason to think either major will benefit or not benefit proportionally. Sure if people voted like in 2025, ALP would win more new seats than L-NP. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDWi...

Well that did not take long. Hastie quits Liberal frontbench over immigration. www.theaustralian.com.au/nation%2Fand...

AEC launches action over unauthorised Wentworth fliers - because they were unauthorised, not because of specific content.

#Essential primaries in theory not on same scale as other polls because undecided left in. ALP 35 L-NP 27 Green 11 ON 13 TOP 2 IND/other 6 undecided 6 Their "2PP+" by respondent prefs ALP leads 51-44 (=53.7) My 2025 prefs estimate 56.2 to ALP

Kiama by-election full distribution of preferences (where voters bothered to give them), nearly 60% exhaust by the 3CP stage, Labor won 60.2-39.8 results.elections.nsw.gov.au/SB2502/Kiama...

I hadn't seen George Brandis' op ed about expanding parliament but it is indeed completely false and @benraue.com has kindly saved me the trouble of debunking it www.tallyroom.com.au/62130

Have not seen anywhere but twitter yet but looks like first federal YouGov of the term at 56-44. 16% of 2022 Coalition voters now say they would vote for One Nation.

Oh wow. Nick Dametto (KAP) to quit as member for Hinchinbrook and run for Mayor of Townsville. That will create a fascinating by-election and a pretty interesting mayoral race as well. #qldpol

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/09/2025... 2025-2028 2PP Aggregate Methods Page. Reopening for business tonight at 56.2 to ALP.

#DemosAU Vic (state) ALP 26 L-NP 38 Greens 15 others 21. 2PP 51-49 to L-NP. Coalition would probably not win government on this, indeed Labor might still remain in majority #springst demosau.com/wp-content/u...

A Queensland mayor under investigation for misrepresenting his military, education and business credentials has announced his resignation.

Interesting vote yesterday on disallowing proposed MP pay increase. For disallowance: Liberals, Greens, O'Byrne, Razay Against: Labor, Di Falco, Garland, George, Johnston Disallowance passed 19-14 #politas

Vic Liberals set to be still failing to Make. It. Stop. into 2026 archive.is/gOWsj#select...

Gisele Kapterian (Liberal) has abandoned her Court of Disputed Returns challenge in #Bradfield meaning Nicolette Boele (IND) has now won the seat for the full Reps term.

Logistic drama in the 1916 Tasmanian election count. #politas

More Hastie🍿, calling colleagues who briefed against his car industry video "nameless cowards" and "muppets" www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

#Morgan (Aug 25 - Sep 21) ALP 34 L-NP 30 Green 12 ON 9.5 IND/others 14.5 Their 2PP by respondent prefs 55.5 to ALP (-1) by last election prefs 55.5 (=) my estimate for published primaries 55.0 (-0.2) www.roymorgan.com/findings/994...

Something notable in the #Newspoll aggregate but also to a lesser degree in other recent state breakdowns - despite having a new leader from NSW the Coalition is polling atrociously there.

The #Newspoll quarterly aggregate federal polling summary (not a new poll) of data from 14 July to 11 September 2025. www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #auspol

Quarterly Newspoll figures out tonight - these are combined breakdowns of previously released polls ***not a new Newspoll*** www.theaustralian.com.au/nation%2Fpol...

Twice Tasmanian state Liberal candidate and potential MP in the case of a vacancy now onto the trail of ... chemtrails #politas

In responding to a reader question about what happens if the Coalition's primary vote keeps dropping, I noticed an interesting omission from my 2025 pendulum. Wright is now a 3CP marginal LNP vs ON. Article has been edited to show this. kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025...

It is reported as unclear Sean Bell, new One Nation Senator for NSW, has ever previously lived in NSW. Three votes against his nomination in joint sitting (two ex-PHON MPs and Taylor Martin) www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

Another wave of de-extinction hype in #ausmedia today re dodos - just like the direwolf only worse - what they create won't actually be a dodo, it will be a genetically modified dodo-shaped chicken. Can't stand this nonsense.

A note re the LegCo President casting vote convention - when Craig Farrell was elected President he said he could if necessary go against it to vote in line with party policy. #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

If you want to target tax subsidies or whatever that's one thing but in terms of actual welfare this is complete nonsense from Ley. couriermail.com.au/news%2Fqueen...

#Redbridge Vic (state) 52-48 to ALP ALP 32 L-NP 37 Green 13 others 18 I concur with the 2PP. Labor would win easily off these numbers, Coalition probably need a substantial 2PP lead. #springst

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/09/poll... Poll Roundup: Liberal Crisis As Honeymoon 2.0 Rumbles On My cross-poll estimate 56.3 to ALP (+1 since election and not changing quickly)

Tasmanian Planning Commission recommends stadium not proceed #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

Wow, actual hopeful signs about abolishing group tickets in Victoria perhaps even in time for 2026 election! (Believe it when I see it but this is interesting!) #springst www.theage.com.au/politics/vic...

For amusement only - after a "private investigator" bizarrely presumed to be able to identify my ideology from a single tweet, I asked four AI programs to place various Australian psephologists on a political orientation scale from 0 (extreme left) to 10 (extreme right).

Long-time Pauline Hanson advisor Sean Bell has been named as One Nation's nominee to replace Warwick Stacey in the Senate, subject to the usual rubber-stamp approval by the NSW Parliament. www.onenation.org.au/sean-bell-to...

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/05/hold... Holding The Ball: Polling And The Proposed Stadium. My ongoing if increasingly incomplete (so many such polls so little time!) review of stadium polling updated to include the problematic Nature survey yesterday. #politas

Paul Murray's Facebook page is claiming One Nation are ahead of the Greens in polls for the first time ever. This is false. Aside from ON often leading the Greens in polls in 1997-2001 when the Greens polled only a few percent, they also did so in at least 12 polls in 2017.

#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 28 Green 10 IND 11 others 12 My 2PP estimate 59.0 to ALP (+1.3) #nswpol

Oh wow, Hastie threatens to quit the frontbench over net zero. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

An interesting #lgtas proposal from govt to reduce number of councillors (and pay them more) without reducing the number of councils. Also to make numbers on all councils odd. #politas www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

#Newspoll 58-42 to ALP ALP 36 L-NP 27 Grn 13 ON 10 others 14

#ResolvePM ALP 35 L-NP 27 Grn 11 ON 12 (!!) IND 9 others 6 Their 2PP (respondent prefs) 55 to ALP (-4) My estimate (last election) 55.6 to ALP (-1.8)

Bad op ed by former Deputy Liberal Leader Frydenberg here, barking up the wrong tree by blaming the left for a killing it appears to have had nothing to do with while claiming to be on the side of "civility".

Just saw this from a letter defending Hare-Clark. This is not the full story re anti-discrimination laws in the 2010-4 term. #politas

#Redbridge ALP 35 L-NP 30 Grn 11 ON 11 (!) others 13 Their 2PP 53.5 to ALP (-2) My 2PP estimate for these primaries 54.7 to ALP (-0.9) 19 Aug - 8 Sep n=5326 changes since June

Labor easily wins Kiama High booth in Kiama by-election. 18% primary vote lead.

Statement from 6 News.

#taschess news - very pleased to advise the House that the team I play for, the Kingborough Knights, today won the Tas teams championship. Winning team: Kevin Bonham, Tan Thanh Nguyen, Andrew Martini, Chris Shepherd and Le Nguyen. Dave Rolph also played for us last week.

A claimed seat poll of Kiama that was being reported yesterday is not an ALP internal and I am unsure whether it was real.

#Morgan ***Averages June 2023-25*** Chinese-born Australians ALP 48 L-NP 34 Grn 11 ON 1 IND/other 6. My 2PP estimate 61.3 to ALP. Indian-born Australians ALP 45 L-NP 39 Grn 8 ON 2 IND/other 6 My 2PP estimate 55.9 to ALP. www.roymorgan.com/findings/100...

Quite impressed how since I started an Australia's Worst Opposition item the candidates have been lining up to impress the voters. Canberra Liberals! www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...

Excellent piece by @peterbrent.bsky.social re Price and "85%" Indian-Australian ALP voting figure nonsense. insidestory.org.au/what-was-tha...