NEW: The full timeline of redistricting in VA this week and breakdown of new seats. Dan Helmer successfully secured himself a seat in Congress. statenavigate.org/map-favored-...

NEW INTERACTIVE OF VA US HOUSE PROPOSAL projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

WV Forecast out Tuesday at @statenavigate.org

We're #1.

HOLD ME NOW, I'M 6 FEET FROM THE EDGE AND I'M THINKIN'

Klobuchar isn't beatable, the real challenge is holding her to a win margin of less than 15.

2026 is here! Happy New Years from State Navigate! 🎊

Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year! statenavigate.org/donate/

Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year! statenavigate.org/donate/

Welcome, to North Carolina Navigate. statenavigate.org/north-caroli...

North Carolina @statenavigate.org out tomorrow

Chaz Nuttycombe on Untold, a WTVR Podcast, discussing State Navigate’s goals and our great team!

When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!

Insane

Welcome, to Alaska Navigate. statenavigate.org/alaska/

At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.

Alaska Navigate comes out Wednesday.

State Navigate turned out to be one of the most accurate pollsters in Virginia in 2025. Here's our analysis for why we beat the rest of the pack. https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/

Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up. She won by 8.

As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm. As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling. statenavigate.org/state-naviga...

Too late WhichSide Digital did it

You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

meme bat signal

I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...

the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states... and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!

LIVE www.youtube.com/live/sFs9LbM... docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6

Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race, says @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social, who successfully predicted all 140 House and Senate races in 2023. Here's part of our chat on #TheFinal5: www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093

On Election Day I'll be streaming on YouTube tracking turnout, I'll make sure to post a link here.

NEW @statenavigate.org poll of VA HD-73 Governor 🔵 Spanberger +3 Lt. Governor 🔵 Hashmi +1 Attorney General 🔴 Miyares +7 House of Delegates🔴Earley +1 statenavigate.org/swing-distri...

Hey y'all. So I gotta choose a platform to do most of my posts and it's gonna have to be X. I can't mirror everything. Make sure on Election Day you're keeping up with my account for turnout and race calls, may be able to post race calls here but IDK.

The Virginia gov polls are kind of all over the place. TBC, variation isn't a bad thing. It suggests pollsters aren't herding, but Mary Radcliffe also picked up on an interesting trend that could be responsible. She and @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social discussed it on the latest GD POLITICS pod:

In what is perhaps the most cutthroat move I've seen Virginia Democrats do in the General Assembly over the last decade, the General Assembly convenes tomorrow to try and begin the process of implementing a DEM gerrymander. Here's your preview from me: statenavigate.org/virginia-dem...

🚨NEW POLL from @statenavigate.org VA-GOV | 🔵Spanberger +13 VA-LG | 🔵Hashmi +11 VA-AG |🔵Jones +5 VA-HoD Generic |🔵 Mary Radcliffe and I with the breakdown and takeaways statenavigate.org/state-naviga...

VA statewide poll out tomorrow AM. Enjoy

NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86 GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5 LG | 🔵Hashmi +1 AG | 🔵Jones +1 HoD | 🔵Thornton +6 statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho...

VA HD-86 poll releasing momentarily. VA statewide poll coming tomorrow. Get notified on the releases: statenavigate.org/newsletter/

The @StateNavigate VA HD-86 poll will release tomorrow. Get notified the second it comes out. Subscribe to our free newsletter: statenavigate.org/newsletter/

Party ID in every VA presidential & gubernatorial election since 2012 2012: D+7 ➡️ 2013 D+5 2016: D+7 ➡️ 2017 D+11 2020: D+2 ➡️ 2021 D+2 2024 D+4 ➡️ 2025 ??? It will be D+ something in 2025, IMO. I would wager between 5 and 9.

Gonna try to post a bit more on here, hopefully pays off.

State Navigate Virginia statewide poll will be done in the field by 9:30 AM tomorrow. After that we're working on prepping it for release, as well as HD-86.

A political rematch is brewing in Virginia's House District 82, and according to Chaz Nuttycombe, it's set to test Spanberger's electoral liabilities. Want to know more? Check out this story at https://loom.ly/T3K-Rn8

Nobody was breaking down state legislatures in this detail- so we did. Want to know more? Check out our website statenavigate.org #NavigateWithUs

Make sure to follow @statenavigate.org for our latest!

VA forecasts out now. statenavigate.org/election-for...

Get ready. July 28th.

Are Virginia Democrats hopeless in Hopewell this year? statenavigate.org/are-virginia...

You can find me on X for primary election content, or visit our site statenavigate.org/virginia

Who is the most electable candidate for Attorney General on the Democratic side? statenavigate.org/which-democr...