Let’s check in on some of the fun open bets on Polymarket that Chinese regulators are sure to love!

Mentally adding some whole numbers to the "years until I can credibly retire" counter.

+1 on wats (and Luang Prabang!), and cathedrals. And FWIW, mosques, Hindu temples, etc. I am 0% religious, but religion has inspired some spectacular architecture and art and you can appreciate it on its own merits.

I'd like to propose a new media literacy rule for Bluesky: If you're looking at a one day financial chart you're probably not getting the right information about how things are going. Big swings in short timeframes are fun to talk about but they don't really mean anything.

True story: When I moved back to the US after 17 years in Asia, I couldn’t get a mobile phone line for my wife because the credit ratings agencies had decided I didn’t exist and linked my last known address to West Virginia, a place I have never been.

“Iranian hackers have Kash’s emails.”

I’m getting a vigorous pre-dinner biscuiting.

Hi to all the new followers who signed up because I did a geopolitics and are now going to receive a stream of PR shitposts, cat pictures, ice cendol worship and bizarre Taiwanese pizzas.

I feel like the surrender of the global electric vehicle market to China is one of those things that will, with a couple of decades of hindsight, be vastly consequential. Scaling benefits, technology development, supply chains... A lot of incumbents that depend on export markets will be screwed.

I'm flagrantly biased because I grew up in the city, but I am always long San Francisco. Yes, it's too expensive, the politics are fucked and it has tons of problems. But it is eye-wateringly gorgeous, has god's own climate and culturally punches way above its weight for 800K population.

This is quite something from Singapore's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vivian Balakrishnan, in an interview with Reuters. The end of the post-war order, diagnosed in technocratic language. www.mfa.gov.sg/newsroom/pre...

Further thoughts on L'affair Air Canada, prompted by a comment. Honestly, a pretty interesting risk comms case study.

Glad to see Rhyming Chaos is back!

Extremely Canadian crisis comms wrinkle tbh.

Heaven forbid anything interfere with any of the nine(!) gas stations with a mile of my house.

Hell yeah. Let's start feathering our hair, too! There was a time when I was about 12 when an LCD digital watch was the absolute coolest thing I owned. (I was a nerd.)

Suck up all you want. Dinner isn’t until 5PM.

I don't mean to brag, but in my area, this place would cost one trillion dollars.

Prediction markets are bathtubs for soaking recreational gamblers.

IDK, I felt about SF Academy like I felt about Kurtzman's ST Discovery. It is so far divorced from the classic Trek timeline and aesthetic that it felt unmoored, minus some fan service. As Outer Space Hogwarts it was passable.

Me emailing people on the weekend: Just prudently getting ahead of the Monday rush. People emailing me on the weekend: This is a war crime.

Teen what now?

I may have died of cringe.

[Droopy Dog voice] i'm happy

Oh man if you think that Taiwan is a Han nationalist government I've got a lot of really bad news about who they need American defense from

It's bring your daughter to war day.

Just got off the plane to find it sweatier at 9PM in San Francisco than it was at mid day in Taipei yesterday.

My son and three of his friends, all high school seniors, are planning a road trip over spring break. They shared a planning doc with the parents and I found their version of the Van Halen “brown M&Ms” easter egg.

If the test to get into BBQ University in China isn't called either the 高烤 or the 烧考, I will lose all of my remaining faith in humanity.

We’ve got to shut the whole thing down until we figure out what’s going on.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the greatest thread in the history of social media. I give you @niaocollective.bsky.social’s archive of Taiwanese pizzas.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the greatest thread in the history of social media. I give you @niaocollective.bsky.social’s archive of Taiwanese pizzas.

We’ve got to shut the whole thing down until we figure out what’s going on.

I'd bet most major US listed firms would maintain a quarterly reporting cadence. Investors will want it, and many firms will be suspicious of a rollback at some point and want to keep the mechanisms in place. But I can think of a few that might welcome the relaxation...

Badgers on all British banknotes. £5? Baby badger. £10? One badger. £20? Two badgers. £50? Five badgers. The pound sterling henceforth informally known as the badger. I have spoken.

Once again tapping the poster.

Amazing. I wrote yesterday about how the prediction markets are going to create absolute fountains of crisis, and I didn’t even get to the vast expansion of the kinds of people who will now be threatened for delivering the wrong resolution of a bet. williammoss.substack.com/p/the-predic...

Ima be honest, if you'd asked me to peg a number for Hsinchu, I'd have guessed about 120 scooters per 100 people.

I know this references the movie, but a bass clef a) would have saved him an hour in the chair and b) would have been a bass clef and bass rocks!

I wrote about how the rise of the prediction markets is altering the corporate risk landscape in interesting, new ways. And when I say “interesting,” I mean “bad.” williammoss.substack.com/p/the-predic...

I wrote about how the rise of the prediction markets is altering the corporate risk landscape in interesting, new ways. And when I say “interesting,” I mean “bad.” williammoss.substack.com/p/the-predic...

Wheeeeeee! www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/m...

Prediction markets create vast new opportunities for insider trading while lowering the friction of doing it to near zero. I think this is rather baked into the model.

Listen to your in-house counsel, kids.

I think it's hard to predict how people in other countries are going to react. America's brand is bigger than Trump thanks to decades of pop culture and technology dominance. (That can change with effort!) E.g. I traveled a lot in Malaysia and Indonesia after 2003 and people were generally fine.

Once I got on a plane to Taiwan and got off to discover that Britain had voted to leave the EU. Getting on a plane to Taiwan tonight! www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Spring forward remains a heinous crime that casts my mornings back into darkness, but the one upside this year is that I have to get on a plane to Taiwan at 11:40PM and that will feel *incrementally* less shitty than usual.

On the door of the Tongan church in my neighborhood. Sign of the times.

I'm sorry, even with multiple patterning we've reached the resolving limits of the available tools and simply cannot make a violin any smaller.

In 1995, I, an American idiot with hair to my shoulder blades and no relevant experience, pitched an Internet videogame based on the Cyberpunk TTRPG to the chairman of the Singapore Economic Development Board and he signed off on the project.