Fun with arbitrary endpoints: the Marlins have been winning a bunch of baseball games over a pretty big sample

Fun conversation! Thanks for having me.

Recent history tells us that the Miami Marlins are difficult to predict, but that won't stop us from trying. Welcome to a new season of Prediction Time.

Celebrating a really cool milestone today 🥲 Fish On First is available wherever you get your pods.

After video review, the Marlins Rule 5 draft guys look a bit more promising than their scary walk rates would suggest

2020 MLB season stats will forever be hilarious Shohei Ohtani: 80 wRC+ Vladimir Guerrero: 110 wRC+ Miguel Rojas: 140 wRC+ Jose Iglesias: 160 wRC+

Within here, I remind you that “finalists” for annual MLB awards are not actually finalists. The winners are already decided. They get grouped with 2 guys who finished closest to them just to generate more widespread interest (and the gimmick works!).

I somehow fell into this rabbit hole

I would recommend a six-year, $49 million extension between Jakob Marsee and the Marlins that includes club options for the 2032 and 2033 seasons

Jakob Marsee is the MLB leader in wins above replacement since debuting on August 1 with 1.6 fWAR. For some context, Jesús Sánchez (solid player!) has never reached 1.6 fWAR in any single SEASON of his career.

The last box for Robby Snelling to check in his development is starting on 4 days’ rest. If his next outing comes on Tuesday (and goes well), then we're officially on call-up watch.

We are not on Joe Mack Watch until August 15

2023 Luis Arraez had 3.4 fWAR in 147 games. Valuable, unforgettable season! 2025 Kyle Stowers already has 3.3 fWAR in 92 games. Running out of adjectives to describe how special he's been.

The “50” up top for Agustín Ramírez’s uniform number and the license plate is his debut date. Absolutely crushed the subtle details! 🚍 aboutthefans.com/products/the...

We’ve got a messy NL Rookie of the Year race this year. Agustín Ramírez is barely above replacement level, yet has a clear path to win. Chad Patrick has a sneaky convincing combo of quality and quantity. They’ll face each other tomorrow.

Great job, AI slop

The Marlins mishandled Graham Pauley for more than a month, having him warm the bench in the majors instead of play regularly in Triple-A. Finally corrected that.

And Jared Serna trying to snap a 38-game homerless streak

I love analyzing Valente Bellozo. He breaks all the rules.

Thanks to the guys for helping out with the intro 🫡 Hour-long streams 2x per week in advance of every Marlins series opener: www.youtube.com/@FishOnFirst...

Seems very obvious to me despite being unconventional, so I'm fully anticipating that they do something different next week to make me look silly

Baseball Savant is such a godsend. Really made this Marlins running game breakdown pop.

Nothing against Liam Hicks, but Agustín Ramírez has matched his extra-base hit total for the season in a single series.

Biggest smile I’ve seen on Max Meyer’s face during his 5 years in the Marlins organization

Liam Hicks quietly caught each of the last 6(!) days for the Marlins. I feel quite confident in predicting that Agustín Ramírez is starting behind the plate tonight in his major league debut.

I’m on vacation. Leave me alone. But also listen to Hittin’ Season with @johnstolnis.bsky.social and my interviews with @realely.bsky.social about the 2025 Marlins’ pretty okay start and author Sam Zygner about the minor league Marlins of old: open.spotify.com/episode/46ZV...

A season of constant losing revolving around Sandy Alcantara trade rumors would have sucked. Thankfully, the 2025 Marlins are already proving to be more nuanced than that.

There is some truly crazy shit going on with base-stealing in the Marlins farm system right now.

Contract extensions are a necessity for the Marlins to eventually build a contending roster on a tight budget. Who's gonna be the first player that Peter Bendix commits to long term?

They put me on TV in Orlando! www.fox35orlando.com/video/1617193

in 2004, detroit tigers outfielder rondell white hit .268 with 23 home runs. april fools. he actually hit .270 with 19 home runs

Thankful to come away with any points at all

One final preseason update to our GIF Database, featuring veteran RHP Dan Marino: fishonfirst.com/news-rumors/...

🔊 Fish Unfiltered Big first-time guest: Marlins president of business Caroline O'Connor! Her takes on attendance, marketing to South Florida fans, Miami Live! construction & more. Subscribe to Fish On First wherever you get your podcasts.

Getting just one correct would be an improvement from my performance last year 🤞

The last 7 winners of the Marlins Minor League Player of the Year award have combined to produce -4.7 fWAR in the majors. More: fishonfirst.com/news-rumors/...

I love listening to this guy talk ball

Exclusively for our paid SuperSubs, daily Marlins game notes are back 🥰 fishonfirst.com/news-rumors/...

Back to doing weekly streams leading up to Opening Day...

🔊 The Offishial Show It's our annual Call-Up Contest! Who's gonna debut for the Marlins in 2025? 🔮 Results of the 5-round/20-player draft:

Did the Marlins win 100 games last season or lose 100 games? It was hard to tell based on Bruce Sherman's tone-deaf comments yesterday.

(I'm so sorry, I apologize in advance, I swear this is a baseball thing) speaking of AI images, is this what right down the dick means? (sorry. I can't apologize enough.)

More similar than I expected

12 of the 26 guys in my updated Opening Day roster projection weren't even part of the Marlins organization on Opening Day last year

I'm mesmerized by how weird Rob Brantly's career has been. A few months of MLB experience spread across the last 11 years. More: fishonfirst.com/news-rumors/...

You probably assumed Woo-Suk Go had already been cut, didn't you? Not yet!

Albert Almora Jr. is the oldest player in this entire group and he's only 30 lol

The Bills have been top-5 in point differential for 5 straight years, reaching at least the Divisional Round each time. One of the best sustained runs ever to not make a Super Bowl. Unless it's the Ravens, who have the most wins in a 7-year stretch to not make the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes!

My favorite moment from Ichiro's Marlins tenure