First day of trading in 2026 and the FTSE100 has just bust past 10,000 for the first time!!!

That -11% YoY traffic reduction is actually a bit more impressive than it seems bc traffic was actually getting 3-5% *worse* each year prior. The true reduction is closer to 14%-16% compared to where we would be without the tolls today.

The solution is right above us. Solar panels on existing buildings, car parks, and along highways generate clean power without sacrificing farmland or wild spaces. Let's use our built world first. #Renewables #Innovation

UK inflation fell more than expected to 3.2% in November, mainly driven by food prices but with falls being seen across sectors. It would be good to see services inflation falling more but this is welcome news and significantly better than expectations

Good to see some improving news

So #Budget2025 eh? Well - the buffer is up to £22bn, so that’s good I suppose but isn’t the £30bn it needs to be so they are still susceptible to small headwinds. Of those, the productivity forecasts look too high still

There is a lot of speculation about the measures in the budget. Rather than speculating what will be in I want to discuss what I’d like the budget to do overall (maybe with some focus on the speculations)! First - they need a buffer that is nearer £30bn than £25bn.

This is really good move, helping to curb inflation. Reducing fares would also boost productivity but this is a good first step. But it can’t be a one off, rail fares have been economically damaging for years and freezing for one year won’t be enough to counteract that

The chancellor says she isn’t sure “what the popular path is” for the budget anymore🤯That shouldn’t even be a consideration when trying to figure out the best way forward. She also says “we can’t just carry on like this and muddle through” when all leaks on the budget show they’re muddling though🤯🤯🤯

Another day, another set of dire economic figures. Energy price cap going up (marginally, despite expectations of small fall) and borrowing is £bns above forecast. With government is looking for a wide set of small economy harming tax rises in budget my optimism on the UK economy has finally run out

‘Uninvestable’ UK takes 30 years to do a nine-month project, says billionaire - This is true. It’s not just the time but also the expense just for a planning application. Growtj will struggle while this problem remains apple.news/AjYkmmWKgR06...

UK inflation fell in October to 3.6% in line with expectations. The fall from 3.8% was driven by energy prices which rose more slowly this year than last. However, a rise in food inflation from 4.5% to 4.9% will worry the BoE and make a rate cut much less likely.

Now it’s being actively briefed that Reeves wants to tax banks more to fill the hole she’ll have by not taxing income. This had been off the table because she wants the banks to lend and support the economy. There are so many of the taxes that wouldn’t be necessary if she just raised income tax

Stock market = down 📉 Borrowing costs = up 📈 The markets liked it when they thought there was a sensible plan to deal with finances. They don’t like it when there isn’t. I hope they listen. The best thing she can do now is do a speech this afternoon laying out when income tax rises are necessary

This is not suggestive of ‘build, build, build’.

A softening Labour market and reduced wage growth (which is due to have large public sector increases fall out the numbers) makes an interest rate cut more likely. But the bigger factor is what inflation comes in at next week

China has recognised the economic potential of green energy and is running with it. If the rest of the world truly wants energy independence then we need to focus on these green jobs of the future and not keep falling back on more fossil fuel exploration

Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004. Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.

Bank of England hold rates as expected. October inflation figures and what’s in the budget will be hugely important for the decision in December

They keep talking about the “50 year taboo” of not raising income tax, but several chancellors have raised national insurance so it’s a bit disingenuous to say income tax rates haven’t gone up while ignoring the same thing with a slightly different name.

Rishi Sunak advising the Chancellor. When he was Chancellor he correctly predicted inflation but then linked more debt to inflation…!?! So I don’t expect to agree with him but the quote below is one thing he does have completely right apple.news/Aqz8Qg5JLSB2...

(if anyone would like to maybe start some sort of campaigning or pressure group of and on behalf of immigrants with ILR and settled status in Britain then I would be interested in helping, or indeed trying to get it off the ground myself, email in bio, etc)

Having been expected to increase to over 4% inflation remained at 3.8% for September U.K. figures released show, with falls in food price inflation offset by bigger increases in fuel. While it’s welcome that inflation didn’t increase it doesn’t change the overall picture.

Bad news but not terrible. This is only £0.1bn above the OBR projection but taken over several months confirms taxes will rise in the budget. Will she do income tax or try to fix it with 50 small taxes that are damaging to businesses? Oh, there’s also the inflation figure tomorrow

This is exactly right - Brexit has compounded all the problems. Lets take energy as an example. The weaker exchange that happened the day of the vote has meant we are paying significantly more for all the dollar priced oil and gas

"The government needs to take ownership of the Budget and use it to construct a convincing narrative. That means not blaming the OBR or HMT but explaining why tax reform is necessary, why it will be good for growth and public services and how pain will be fairly shared. www.ft.com/content/a06d...

I am a little worried, however, that in a couple of episodes in the last couple of months, I have let my frustration bubble through the calm nuance that is meant to be the podcast's philosophy. But rants like this just seem to EMIT from me at the moment.

I keep saying, and this confirms it. In the budget Reeves needs to raise income tax and cut welfare spend (this can be done over the parliament so is properly thought through and not rushed). This will help bring down inflation and needs to be enough to create £30bn buffer apple.news/AfyExr4KRRam...

Rachel Reeves, just tell voters why taxes must go up – and then do it | Polly Toynbee

Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved. Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning. ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

I was quite surprised, given the amount of negative press that would have you believe that this government is the worst we’ve had yet. I’ll put the link in the next post but given we had a complete shit show with the Tories, this is astonishing. Do reshare or bookmark the link, it’s handy.

Are enough Conservative MPs going to defect to Reform to make the LidDems the official opposition?

I have two thoughts on this 1) why does every Tory policy to help first time buyers involve pushing up house prices? 2) why do the tories think expensive giveaways are the key to winning elections rather than fixing things?

In positive news today Growth for 2024 H2 was revised upwards and shows GDP per capita was slightly up rather than slightly down. And the FTSE 100 hit a new intraday high and closing high 📈 It needs a lot more to start attracting more listings but it’s the right direction

Not sure we learnt a lot from the Labour conference but it does seem like Keir Starmer is reinvigorated. But we know tax rises are planned and the arguments that will be used from them. But again it’s light on policies that will promote growth.

It would be great to get a nice surprise on some economic data but it seems today is not that day. Inflation remains at 3.8% and is likely to increase towards the end of the year. At this elevated level interest rate cuts are unlikely and puts pressure on bond yields which increases borrowing…

I’ve not seen any evidence of why it should be different this time to every time before. While the US markets will likely correct what no one knows is exactly when. That happened with dotcom bubble where no one wanted to miss out on the gains apple.news/AUixvJtCQRZu...

Yes, fares need to be simpler but they also need to be significantly cheaper. This will push some people into cars and some people to not make the journey, which reduces growth. It’s crazy that no government understands the link between transport cost and economic activity apple.news/AqGbbQ_zeRLq...

This is quite stark. Services up 0.4% and construction up 0.6%. Growth was dragged down by a 1.3% fall in production. Manufacturing needs to be the focus of this government now if they hope to turn this around.

This is an absolute disaster. The economy needs something to boost it. If it keeps bobbing along a trend line of zero the government won’t be able to spend on any priorities. This should have been better as exports to US improved. In August consumer spending is down again so that isn’t looking good

A great article discussing the pressures on the Chancellor and government but also, importantly, tangible proposals of how to deal with them apple.news/APEelKzf0R_q...

Why is the BBC leading every news updates with Angela Rayner yet nothing about an MP asking the US to destroy UK businesses????

While not everything here is accurate it’s absolutely correct when it talks about reducing spending. Welfare cuts sent a signal to markets that hard decisions can’t be made. That needs to change apple.news/Ao76F27loS0S...

fun fact: the brexit britain economy is now on a par with Greece & Italy when they were considered economic basket cases. The UK's bond market is collapsing. Yields are now 15 TIMES higher than 2020 covid, just 5 years ago. quick 🧵explaining what this means and why it's unique for britain.

How the Prime Minister's growing moral cowardice in taking on the politics of Nigel Farage is setting his own Government up for a historic defeat www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/whos-afrai...

The Chancellor talking about taxing the wealthy. She mentions a few of the things she has ALREADY done to increase the tax burden on the wealthiest in society. She also explains why it's a balancing act... 1/2

Yes the government still refuses to decouple gas and electricity prices

Rail fares must go down, not up — a fare hike of any kind at this point would be outrageous 🚄Stop private profits flowing out 🚄Set up Great British Trains instead of wasting millions on private rolling stock companies Our quote in @mstaronline.bsky.social 👇 morningstaronline.co.uk/article/gove...

The UK economy is in a precarious position and needs support now. After the neves tax raises last year to support public finances the worry now is that taxes will need to rise again due to lower than expected revenues.

A great thread on today’s inflation figures