Erfarenheterna från drönarutvecklingens ”frontlinje” visar att Sverige riskerar att dra fel slutsatser av Ukraina, skriver Sebastian Merlöv. militardebatt.com/2026/05/23/f...

Mycket bra text av Sebastian. Om vi kan styra och der kan vi så är "drönare" ett komplement, inte ett huvudvapen och vi ser den Ukrainska utvecklingen mot tunga, långräckviddiga markmålsrobotar och uppbyggnaden av sitt flygvapen.

Indeed, dear Kirsti. The challenge today is to convince everyone that Europe is now very much on its own

Skriver om de många frågetecken som kvarstår kring införandet av den nya civila underrättelsetjänsten, och då framförallt om de förmågor och resurser som ska brytas ur MUST, i veckans Svensk Tidskrift.

Jag har nu i efterhand sett pressträffen. Det började med ett självmål. Utrikesministern började med att föra fram att kriget mot Ukraina har lärt oss att informationsöverläge är minst lika viktigt som själva vapnen. Förstås ett tveksamt påstående i sig självt, men Ukraina har militära tjänster!! /1

Europe knows what it now must do, ie ELSA (the long-strike coalition between 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇵🇱 🇸🇪). Time to move is now

Going through some State Department archive documents and found this speech by Condoleezza Rice at her 2014 portrait unveiling. Whoever comes after Trump, it's hard to see a future Republican administration going back to this view of the US and its place in the world.

A big step towards a quickie deal, with Iran in control of reopened Hormuz. A big relief for the global economy but not great news for the strategic balance in the region. Gulfies but also Israel find themselves in a deep strategic predicament after the US war and peace of Trumpian choice

I steped briefly back into Charlemagne's robes this week (@spignal.bsky.social is on holiday) to explain why, amid all the Magyar-mania, the EU risks ignoring some important lessons it ought to take from its long Orban nightmare. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Turns out he wasn’t the Messiah, just a very naughty boy. “Trump deletes post depicting him as Jesus-like figure after backlash” www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Welcome back, Hungary! 🇭🇺🇪🇺❤️

Trump threatening to annex Greenland because the Norwegian government didn't give him the Nobel prize seems relatively sane compared with where we are now.

This is absolutely right, but I suspect another factor explaining Washington's current anger is a failure among people with the knowledge levels and worldview typical of this administration to understand the huge benefits of NATO to the US. So NATO just looks like welfare for an ungrateful Europe.🧵

I suspect that Trump will take the opportunity in his speech tonight to put forward a MAGA version of the stab-in-the-back myth. Namely that the US could have totally defeated Iran if it hadn't been stabbed in the back by the traitorous Euros.

People need to understand that it is a good thing if Trump threatens to leave NATO and says the US will not fight for Europe. The truth was the alliance was dead the moment he became president again. The US under him would never fight to defend Europe from Russia. Pretending otherwise was dangerous.

The US president blithely rehearsing what Putin thinks of NATO, and Putin being sufficiently relaxed with/contemptuous of the US president to tell him, is pretty strong evidence that NATO is not currently functioning as a defensive alliance in any meaningful way.

When I made this prediction on the first day of Trump's second term, I didn't imagine that the circumstances would include Russia helping Iran fight the US. But here we are.

Since January 2025, the Trump administration has consistently: pressured Kyiv, not Moscow; aligned with Russia; and disregarded its core alliance commitments. Why would Ukraine give up land for a security guarantee that would be nothing of the kind? www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Bond market may have dictated things again. The US 20Y Note Yield was above 5.00%. At the current pace, in US, 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices this week.

Radical view I know, but no amount of Woah/Hooah/Oorah/Hooyah can overcome poor planning, lack of strategic clarity, mixed messaging and… geography.

The last 24 hours have shown us who now controls escalation in the Gulf - my latest substack markurban.substack.com/p/trump-lose...

I wrote a few words about Putin, Russia, and why history, culture, and even civilisation matters. All comments and thoughts much appreciated. kkrva.se/putin-the-te...

The Trump administration alignment with Russia is not primarily about China - at least, not for Trump and probably not for those close to him. If it were, then Trump would have been saying so for all the many years he's been focused on "getting along with Russia".🧵 www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

The stages of losing a war: 1. Start a war with no agreed war aims 2. Never plan using available data (eg 50 years of work on Hormuz scenario) 3. Spout data with little relevance to the conflict (eg ships, a/c sunk) 4. Disregard adverse reports 5. Cast aspersions on the messenger: now 6. Next: lie

Idag är det 416 år sedan den svenska fältmarskalken Jacob De la Gardie intog Moskva under det De la Gardiska fälttåget.

Det finns av förklarliga skäl väldigt många exempel i det pågående kriget i Persiska Viken på komplexiteten i att ha ett fungerande integrerat luft- och missilförsvar. En förutsättning för att både kunna gå i skydd i tid, respektive att inrikta luftförsvarsresurser är tidig …

Little Red Dots xkcd.com/3212/

Jag vet inte jag, vad vill vi egentligen att EU ska göra? Vi kommer ju inte ge oss in i detta, vi har ju egentligen inget emot att de bombar regimen i Iran och destabiliserar en av Rysslands främsta allierade och vapenleverantörer, och vi är inte direkt tighta med USA just nu.

Truly bizarre. What does Rishi Sunaak know about European integration?

Blågula Bilen deltar i kampanjen ”Sverige överger inte Ukraina” – med målet att samla in 100 miljoner kronor. 👊🏻🇺🇦 Donera 100 kr (eller mer) till Blågula Bilen, eller välj en annan deltagande organisation, via länken nedan: samfora.org/ukraina

I wrote for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the end of the US-Europe alliance.

IDF answers to French Army questions about the effect of networked warfare tech on Mission Command. Check it out. youtu.be/wsv4qzX-Q44

Happy to share the latest. My views on the current battlefield dynamics and where the war stands in 2026. Happy to share the latest. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...

The US wants a Europe-led NATO: the Europeans should start planning it. My latest with Rachel Ellehuus ahead of #MSC2026 @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social @isdp-sweden.bsky.social @rusi.bsky.social www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...

There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵

Free piece just released. Marco Rubio called on tolerant, democratic, liberal Europe to destroy itself and embrace a Trump-like future. He received a standing ovation and we are told some people are reassured. If so, Europe will deserve everything coming its way. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The only comment I have on the Rubio speech is that I don’t want to spend too much time on the Rubio speech. Nothing is changing with regards to US policy. We don’t need to do a line-by-line analysis.

Detta är så fruktansvärt oseriöst. Det kommer naturligtvis inte springa några barn i minerad gränsmark om kriget kommer. Det handlar om våra möjligheter att samverka med Finland och Baltikum, och att inte riskera svenska soldaters liv i onödan. Självklart ska vi lämna fördraget.

From the start, the focus of the Trump administration's approach to Ukraine has been on US enrichment, friendly relations with Russia, and getting everyone else to treat Russia like a great power. The survival of Ukraine and European security are entirely irrelevant.

New concept design for the remodelled Kennedy Center (IYKYK)

Ottawakonventionen formades i en annan tid. I ett förändrat säkerhetspolitiskt läge, med fokus på territoriellt försvar och Nato-interoperabilitet, finns skäl att pröva om Sveriges åtagande fortfarande är strategiskt hållbart. militardebatt.com/2026/01/31/d...

Ja, jag är fortfarande tacksam för att vi gick med i NATO medan tid fanns. Det borde fler vara, skriver jag I Svensk Tidskrift.

Separatister i Alberta vill få loss kreditgarantier om $500 miljarder från USA efter hemliga samtal med representanter för State department. Administrationen uppges uttryckt intresse för att splittra Kanada för att kunna 'absorbera' resterna. Det är alltså fortfarande januari.

"For more than 80 years, the US was the pre-eminent ally of Europe. The end of that alliance has seemed unthinkable, but it has nevertheless arrived, and wishing that things were different will not bring the alliance back to life." I wrote for @cepa.org on a post-US West. cepa.org/article/a-we...

"The result of a consistent and total substitution of lies for factual truth is not that the lie will now be accepted as truth and truth be defamed as lie, but that the sense by which we take our bearings in the real world —...

Europeans and Canadians have spent the last year trying to engage with the Trump administration seriously on the most important and sensitive issues of security and international stability. The people they're dealing with are profoundly ignorant, and don't think that matters.

The Trump administration apparently blinking first on economic war with Europe is good news. If everyone can slow-walk talks on a "deal" it will be even better. But it would be dangerous to assume the crisis is definitely over. And I don't think the damage to NATO can be undone.

So, if I understand correctly, the US needs to own Greenland because of the threats from new weapons belong to *checks notes* the US, and from Russia and China whose military technology is apparently a bit rubbish. Makes perfect sense.

If all this is really about bolstering Greenland's capabilities, as Graham is claiming, why is the White House so angry about other NATO states bolstering Greenland's capabilities? And why couldn't the US have done it within existing frameworks that allow for a US military presence?