Offside xkcd.com/3268/

As he's done over and over again since Jan 2025, Trump makes it clear that he doesn't see the US as an ally of Europe; doesn't feel bound by NATO commitments; doesn't view Russia as the US's problem in any way; and is fixated on imagined grievances. It's not going to change.

In the wake of the Summit in Ankara, I draw up to 4 scenarios regarding the #future of #NATO: ➡️ Future #1: More Europe in NATO—the moderate version ➡️ Future #2: More Europe in NATO—the brutal version ➡️ Future #3: NATO narrows to Europe and Canada ➡️ Future #4: NATO becomes part of the EU

Att inte begripa vad flygarmonumentet är och symboliserar, och varför man självklart håller ceremonin vid jubileet just där, är så andefattigt och respektlöst att det är närmast obegripligt.

Tack #Flygvapnet för att ni flyger över mig och ett stort grattis på 100-årsdagen. En pigg 100-åring får man säga! 🇸🇪 #Gripen Happy 100th birthday Swedish Air Force 🥳

Ja, vi borde också lämna Ottawafördraget. För att kunna delta fullt ut i försvaret av vår gemensamma yttre gräns, men också för att inte i onödan riskera svenska soldaters liv. Skrev om detta i Svensk Tidskrift tidigare i år.

Like so much Kremlin rhetoric for the last 15 years or so, this is a fascinating combination of self-pitying, paranoid conspiratorialism (it's all a giant plot against us!) and desperate attempts to show what a very great great power Russia is. 🧵

For nearly 18 months, the Trump administration and many analysts have thought of the US, Russia, and China as great powers deciding the fate of the world, unconstrained by lesser states. Today, the US is the losing party in a Versailles peace agreement and Moscow looks like this:

When he's right, he's right

“There’s a very strong expectation that he will stand by Ukraine. That’s what he told the leaders.” I see we're at the 'trusting Trump to keep his very vague word on Ukraine' stage of the cycle again.

He sometimes has moments of great clarity

New video premiering in ten minutes

Idag lämnade Försvarsberedningen över delrapporten "Skärpt läge" till försvarsministern. När jag för snart 20 år sedan startade försvarsbloggen "Wiseman's Wisdoms" hade jag aldrig kunnat ana att jag skulle komma att vara en av Försvarsmaktens två … www.regeringen.se/artiklar/202...

Damn straight. This guy should go to Belfast and say this in person. I'm sure he'll get a lively reaction.

The Kremlin and the White House are so fixated on the idea that only great powers have agency that they're willing to destroy their countries' power to prove it.

Flygvapnet över Veterandagsceremonin i Malmö. Kronprinsessan är hedersgäst, landshövdingen talar och Rickard Söderberg sjunger. Det har hänt en del på tio år, kanske för att Sverige åter är på väg att bli ett land som förstår vad friheten kostar.

Erfarenheterna från drönarutvecklingens ”frontlinje” visar att Sverige riskerar att dra fel slutsatser av Ukraina, skriver Sebastian Merlöv. militardebatt.com/2026/05/23/f...

Mycket bra text av Sebastian. Om vi kan styra och der kan vi så är "drönare" ett komplement, inte ett huvudvapen och vi ser den Ukrainska utvecklingen mot tunga, långräckviddiga markmålsrobotar och uppbyggnaden av sitt flygvapen.

Indeed, dear Kirsti. The challenge today is to convince everyone that Europe is now very much on its own

Skriver om de många frågetecken som kvarstår kring införandet av den nya civila underrättelsetjänsten, och då framförallt om de förmågor och resurser som ska brytas ur MUST, i veckans Svensk Tidskrift.

Jag har nu i efterhand sett pressträffen. Det började med ett självmål. Utrikesministern började med att föra fram att kriget mot Ukraina har lärt oss att informationsöverläge är minst lika viktigt som själva vapnen. Förstås ett tveksamt påstående i sig självt, men Ukraina har militära tjänster!! /1

Europe knows what it now must do, ie ELSA (the long-strike coalition between 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇵🇱 🇸🇪). Time to move is now

Going through some State Department archive documents and found this speech by Condoleezza Rice at her 2014 portrait unveiling. Whoever comes after Trump, it's hard to see a future Republican administration going back to this view of the US and its place in the world.

A big step towards a quickie deal, with Iran in control of reopened Hormuz. A big relief for the global economy but not great news for the strategic balance in the region. Gulfies but also Israel find themselves in a deep strategic predicament after the US war and peace of Trumpian choice

I steped briefly back into Charlemagne's robes this week (@spignal.bsky.social is on holiday) to explain why, amid all the Magyar-mania, the EU risks ignoring some important lessons it ought to take from its long Orban nightmare. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Turns out he wasn’t the Messiah, just a very naughty boy. “Trump deletes post depicting him as Jesus-like figure after backlash” www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Welcome back, Hungary! 🇭🇺🇪🇺❤️

Trump threatening to annex Greenland because the Norwegian government didn't give him the Nobel prize seems relatively sane compared with where we are now.

This is absolutely right, but I suspect another factor explaining Washington's current anger is a failure among people with the knowledge levels and worldview typical of this administration to understand the huge benefits of NATO to the US. So NATO just looks like welfare for an ungrateful Europe.🧵

I suspect that Trump will take the opportunity in his speech tonight to put forward a MAGA version of the stab-in-the-back myth. Namely that the US could have totally defeated Iran if it hadn't been stabbed in the back by the traitorous Euros.

People need to understand that it is a good thing if Trump threatens to leave NATO and says the US will not fight for Europe. The truth was the alliance was dead the moment he became president again. The US under him would never fight to defend Europe from Russia. Pretending otherwise was dangerous.

The US president blithely rehearsing what Putin thinks of NATO, and Putin being sufficiently relaxed with/contemptuous of the US president to tell him, is pretty strong evidence that NATO is not currently functioning as a defensive alliance in any meaningful way.

When I made this prediction on the first day of Trump's second term, I didn't imagine that the circumstances would include Russia helping Iran fight the US. But here we are.

Since January 2025, the Trump administration has consistently: pressured Kyiv, not Moscow; aligned with Russia; and disregarded its core alliance commitments. Why would Ukraine give up land for a security guarantee that would be nothing of the kind? www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Bond market may have dictated things again. The US 20Y Note Yield was above 5.00%. At the current pace, in US, 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices this week.

Radical view I know, but no amount of Woah/Hooah/Oorah/Hooyah can overcome poor planning, lack of strategic clarity, mixed messaging and… geography.

The last 24 hours have shown us who now controls escalation in the Gulf - my latest substack markurban.substack.com/p/trump-lose...

I wrote a few words about Putin, Russia, and why history, culture, and even civilisation matters. All comments and thoughts much appreciated. kkrva.se/putin-the-te...

The Trump administration alignment with Russia is not primarily about China - at least, not for Trump and probably not for those close to him. If it were, then Trump would have been saying so for all the many years he's been focused on "getting along with Russia".🧵 www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

The stages of losing a war: 1. Start a war with no agreed war aims 2. Never plan using available data (eg 50 years of work on Hormuz scenario) 3. Spout data with little relevance to the conflict (eg ships, a/c sunk) 4. Disregard adverse reports 5. Cast aspersions on the messenger: now 6. Next: lie

Idag är det 416 år sedan den svenska fältmarskalken Jacob De la Gardie intog Moskva under det De la Gardiska fälttåget.

Det finns av förklarliga skäl väldigt många exempel i det pågående kriget i Persiska Viken på komplexiteten i att ha ett fungerande integrerat luft- och missilförsvar. En förutsättning för att både kunna gå i skydd i tid, respektive att inrikta luftförsvarsresurser är tidig …

Little Red Dots xkcd.com/3212/

Jag vet inte jag, vad vill vi egentligen att EU ska göra? Vi kommer ju inte ge oss in i detta, vi har ju egentligen inget emot att de bombar regimen i Iran och destabiliserar en av Rysslands främsta allierade och vapenleverantörer, och vi är inte direkt tighta med USA just nu.

Truly bizarre. What does Rishi Sunaak know about European integration?

Blågula Bilen deltar i kampanjen ”Sverige överger inte Ukraina” – med målet att samla in 100 miljoner kronor. 👊🏻🇺🇦 Donera 100 kr (eller mer) till Blågula Bilen, eller välj en annan deltagande organisation, via länken nedan: samfora.org/ukraina

I wrote for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the end of the US-Europe alliance.

IDF answers to French Army questions about the effect of networked warfare tech on Mission Command. Check it out. youtu.be/wsv4qzX-Q44