Trump threatening to annex Greenland because the Norwegian government didn't give him the Nobel prize seems relatively sane compared with where we are now.

This is absolutely right, but I suspect another factor explaining Washington's current anger is a failure among people with the knowledge levels and worldview typical of this administration to understand the huge benefits of NATO to the US. So NATO just looks like welfare for an ungrateful Europe.🧵

I suspect that Trump will take the opportunity in his speech tonight to put forward a MAGA version of the stab-in-the-back myth. Namely that the US could have totally defeated Iran if it hadn't been stabbed in the back by the traitorous Euros.

People need to understand that it is a good thing if Trump threatens to leave NATO and says the US will not fight for Europe. The truth was the alliance was dead the moment he became president again. The US under him would never fight to defend Europe from Russia. Pretending otherwise was dangerous.

The US president blithely rehearsing what Putin thinks of NATO, and Putin being sufficiently relaxed with/contemptuous of the US president to tell him, is pretty strong evidence that NATO is not currently functioning as a defensive alliance in any meaningful way.

When I made this prediction on the first day of Trump's second term, I didn't imagine that the circumstances would include Russia helping Iran fight the US. But here we are.

Since January 2025, the Trump administration has consistently: pressured Kyiv, not Moscow; aligned with Russia; and disregarded its core alliance commitments. Why would Ukraine give up land for a security guarantee that would be nothing of the kind? www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Bond market may have dictated things again. The US 20Y Note Yield was above 5.00%. At the current pace, in US, 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices this week.

Radical view I know, but no amount of Woah/Hooah/Oorah/Hooyah can overcome poor planning, lack of strategic clarity, mixed messaging and… geography.

The last 24 hours have shown us who now controls escalation in the Gulf - my latest substack markurban.substack.com/p/trump-lose...

I wrote a few words about Putin, Russia, and why history, culture, and even civilisation matters. All comments and thoughts much appreciated. kkrva.se/putin-the-te...

The Trump administration alignment with Russia is not primarily about China - at least, not for Trump and probably not for those close to him. If it were, then Trump would have been saying so for all the many years he's been focused on "getting along with Russia".🧵 www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

The stages of losing a war: 1. Start a war with no agreed war aims 2. Never plan using available data (eg 50 years of work on Hormuz scenario) 3. Spout data with little relevance to the conflict (eg ships, a/c sunk) 4. Disregard adverse reports 5. Cast aspersions on the messenger: now 6. Next: lie

Idag är det 416 år sedan den svenska fältmarskalken Jacob De la Gardie intog Moskva under det De la Gardiska fälttåget.

Det finns av förklarliga skäl väldigt många exempel i det pågående kriget i Persiska Viken på komplexiteten i att ha ett fungerande integrerat luft- och missilförsvar. En förutsättning för att både kunna gå i skydd i tid, respektive att inrikta luftförsvarsresurser är tidig …

Little Red Dots xkcd.com/3212/

Jag vet inte jag, vad vill vi egentligen att EU ska göra? Vi kommer ju inte ge oss in i detta, vi har ju egentligen inget emot att de bombar regimen i Iran och destabiliserar en av Rysslands främsta allierade och vapenleverantörer, och vi är inte direkt tighta med USA just nu.

Truly bizarre. What does Rishi Sunaak know about European integration?

Blågula Bilen deltar i kampanjen ”Sverige överger inte Ukraina” – med målet att samla in 100 miljoner kronor. 👊🏻🇺🇦 Donera 100 kr (eller mer) till Blågula Bilen, eller välj en annan deltagande organisation, via länken nedan: samfora.org/ukraina

I wrote for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the end of the US-Europe alliance.

IDF answers to French Army questions about the effect of networked warfare tech on Mission Command. Check it out. youtu.be/wsv4qzX-Q44

Happy to share the latest. My views on the current battlefield dynamics and where the war stands in 2026. Happy to share the latest. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...

The US wants a Europe-led NATO: the Europeans should start planning it. My latest with Rachel Ellehuus ahead of #MSC2026 @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social @isdp-sweden.bsky.social @rusi.bsky.social www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...

There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵

Free piece just released. Marco Rubio called on tolerant, democratic, liberal Europe to destroy itself and embrace a Trump-like future. He received a standing ovation and we are told some people are reassured. If so, Europe will deserve everything coming its way. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The only comment I have on the Rubio speech is that I don’t want to spend too much time on the Rubio speech. Nothing is changing with regards to US policy. We don’t need to do a line-by-line analysis.

Detta är så fruktansvärt oseriöst. Det kommer naturligtvis inte springa några barn i minerad gränsmark om kriget kommer. Det handlar om våra möjligheter att samverka med Finland och Baltikum, och att inte riskera svenska soldaters liv i onödan. Självklart ska vi lämna fördraget.

From the start, the focus of the Trump administration's approach to Ukraine has been on US enrichment, friendly relations with Russia, and getting everyone else to treat Russia like a great power. The survival of Ukraine and European security are entirely irrelevant.

New concept design for the remodelled Kennedy Center (IYKYK)

Ottawakonventionen formades i en annan tid. I ett förändrat säkerhetspolitiskt läge, med fokus på territoriellt försvar och Nato-interoperabilitet, finns skäl att pröva om Sveriges åtagande fortfarande är strategiskt hållbart. militardebatt.com/2026/01/31/d...

Ja, jag är fortfarande tacksam för att vi gick med i NATO medan tid fanns. Det borde fler vara, skriver jag I Svensk Tidskrift.

Separatister i Alberta vill få loss kreditgarantier om $500 miljarder från USA efter hemliga samtal med representanter för State department. Administrationen uppges uttryckt intresse för att splittra Kanada för att kunna 'absorbera' resterna. Det är alltså fortfarande januari.

"For more than 80 years, the US was the pre-eminent ally of Europe. The end of that alliance has seemed unthinkable, but it has nevertheless arrived, and wishing that things were different will not bring the alliance back to life." I wrote for @cepa.org on a post-US West. cepa.org/article/a-we...

"The result of a consistent and total substitution of lies for factual truth is not that the lie will now be accepted as truth and truth be defamed as lie, but that the sense by which we take our bearings in the real world —...

Europeans and Canadians have spent the last year trying to engage with the Trump administration seriously on the most important and sensitive issues of security and international stability. The people they're dealing with are profoundly ignorant, and don't think that matters.

The Trump administration apparently blinking first on economic war with Europe is good news. If everyone can slow-walk talks on a "deal" it will be even better. But it would be dangerous to assume the crisis is definitely over. And I don't think the damage to NATO can be undone.

So, if I understand correctly, the US needs to own Greenland because of the threats from new weapons belong to *checks notes* the US, and from Russia and China whose military technology is apparently a bit rubbish. Makes perfect sense.

If all this is really about bolstering Greenland's capabilities, as Graham is claiming, why is the White House so angry about other NATO states bolstering Greenland's capabilities? And why couldn't the US have done it within existing frameworks that allow for a US military presence?

In the year since Trump's 2nd inauguration, things have been as bad as the worst projections of the most pessimistic of us, and they are rapidly getting worse. But at least the extremity of the crisis has finally forced key European figures to acknowledge where we are.

Update to Nixon's Madman Theory: now with no theory, but with an actual madman.

To all actors who have played crazy tyrannical megalomaniac monarchs, I sincerely apologize that events have overtaken your parody and exaggeration. Please try harder to be unrealistic next time.

Detta är fullständigt vansinne.

Europeans need to accept that NATO only exists now as a zombie alliance being used to undermine their own security from Ukraine to Greenland.

Jaha, det var det, han har tappat det. Dags för mest omfattande möjliga frikoppling tills dess att amerikanerna tagit sitt förnuft till fånga och styrt upp sin egen jäkla röra för en gångs skull.

Trump can put a million-percent tariffs on Denmark, and it still doesn't change the answer about Greenland. There are only two possible endings to this bizarre story. Either Trump gives up, or else he goes through with a military invasion.

Trump slaps allies with Greenland tariffs. From Feb 1, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, and Finland face 10% on all exports. June 1, it jumps to 25%.

Hopefully, this will signal to the EU that the time has come to rhreaten the US with massive tariffs vs US digital services companies doing business in the EU if the US tries to annex Greenland. Note: the EU is the US's largest export market for services in general & digital ones in particular

Basically Trump is threatening to sanction NATO unless NATO commits suicide. And people still think he might sanction Russia. He is doing Putin’s work.

Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/arct...