🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election polling averages — January 21, 2026 ➡️ AfD: 25.8% (+5.0) ⬛ Union: 24.8% (-3.8) 🟥 SPD: 14.4% (-2.0) 🟩 GRN: 12.3% (+0.7) 🟪 Linke: 10.4% (+1.6) +/- vs. Feb 2025 Projection at the constituency level 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Germany/

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 | Mid Scotland & Fife regional nowcast (Holyrood) — January, 2026 🟨 SNP: 27.8% (-12.0) ➡️ RFM: 16.9% (+16.7) 🟥 LAB: 14.0% (-1.3) 🟧 LDM: 13.2% (+5.7) 🟦 CON: 12.5% (-12.5) 🟩 GRN: 11.5% (+3.2) +/- vs. 2021 election AMS list seats: 1➡️ 2🟥 3🟦 4🟩 5➡️ 6🟥 7🟧

🇮🇹 | Probabilistic breakdown of the latest polling / projections for Italy 🟦 CDX majority: 54% 🟥 CSX majority: 18% Odds of neither coalition reaching a majority of seats is ~28% 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/

🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — January 15, 2026 ➡️ RFM: 28% | 325 (+320) 🟦 CON: 18% | 57 (-64) 🟥 LAB: 18% | 76 (-330) 🟩 GRN: 13% | 26 (+22) 🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 45 (+36) 🔲 PLC: 1% | 9 (+5) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 www.nowcast.uk/home/house-o...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 | Every seat projection for the Senedd since electoral reforms were approved For the first time, Plaid+Green comes out greater than Plaid+Labour Still no right-wing majorities.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales | Senedd projection based on @yougov.co.uk polling — January, 2026 🔲 PLC: 37% | 44 ➡️ RFM: 23% | 23 🟩 GRN: 13% | 11 🟥 LAB: 10% | 10 🟦 CON: 10% | 7 🟧 LDM: 5% | 1 Highest ever % for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party 🗳️ Next election = May 7, 2026

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 | Current Holyrood polling averages suggest the SNP has a ~20% chance of reaching an overall majority with constituency seats alone (65/73) Compared to 2011 — lower vote share, higher fragmentation

Why Italian seat projections sometimes look random or irrational, with certain parties seeming to arbitrarily gain or lose seats: Under the current system, many FPTP seats would flip from CDX to CSX with no change to overall vote shares - only broader alliances (CSX + M5S) e.g.

🇮🇹 Italy | Legislative Election polling averages — January 12, 2026 ⬛ FdI: 29.6% (+3.6) 🟥 PD: 22.2% (+3.1) 🟨 M5S: 12.7% (-2.7) ➡️ Forza: 8.5% (+0.4) 🟩 Lega: 8.4% (-0.4) 🟪 AVS: 6.5% (+2.9) ... +/- vs. 2022 Projection at the district level 👇 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/

⚫ Advance UK are standing in two by-elections on the 20th of Jan Same candidate in both wards, which are adjacent to eachother but in two different councils (county vs borough) opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections....

The last election to occur in/around Hull East would have been the 2025 East Yorkshire mayoral Reform won with 35.8% of the vote

🇬🇧 | Kingston upon Hull East constituency nowcast — January, 2026 ➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7) 🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5) 🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2) 🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2) 🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6) +/- vs. GE2024

Possible Westminster by-elections to look out for in 2026: 🟡 Aberdeen South 🟡 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Both (SNP) MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament Similar thing happened in 2021 that led to the Airdrie and Shotts by-election en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ai...

Honestly think the last seat here could be a tossup between Tory, Labour and Lib Dem Ideally though if you're the First Minister you don't want your seat to be a tossup

Working on the dashboard for my 2026 Senedd forecasts (& eventually a big chunk of all European elections with @nowcast-eu.bsky.social ) 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/

This directly contradicts the ministerial statement for why the British Government feels bound to stay on Twitter. They should be challenged on that and also on how terminally online so much of the cabinet are that they think Twitter represents the British people more than polling does.

Well you're kinda screwed then

🇬🇧 | Projected result of this week's @yougov.co.uk poll — under PR ➡️ RFM: 26% | 174 (+78) 🟦 CON: 19% | 120 (-36) 🟥 LAB: 17% | 113 (-121) 🟧 LDM: 16% | 100 (+19) 🟩 GRN: 15% | 97 (+54) 🟨 SNP: 4% | 20 (+3) 🔲 PLC: 1% | 8 (+3) +/- vs. GE2024 [PR]

🇪🇦 Spain | Legislative Election polling averages — January 9, 2026 🟦 PP: 32.3% (-0.8) 🟥 PSOE: 27.2% (-4.5) 🟩 Vox: 18.8% (+6.4) 🟪 Sumar: 6.0% (-6.3) 🟪 Podem: 4.0% (*) 🟫 SALF: 1.7% (NEW) | 🔲 Other: 9.9% (-0.6) +/- vs. 2023 * contested the previous election with Sumar

Based on the most recent Nowcast UK projection, there's only ~30 seats where this would realistically make the difference between Lab/Lib and Reform This also assumes a very disciplined electorate (e.g. 90% voters willing to switch) So, for now, this is pretty meaningless

🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election polling averages — January 3, 2026 🟧 KO: 33.7% (+3.0) 🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0) ⬛ Kon: 11.6% (+5.3) 🟫 KKP: 8.3% (+7.4) 🟥 Lew: 6.8% (+1.2) — 🟪 Raz: 3.9% (+1.8) 🟩 PSL: 3.0% (-2.5) 🟨 PL50: 2.3% (-4.9) +/- vs. 2023

As the year ends, a reminder that an election held today (with similarly low turnout) would be the worst result for Britain's two major parties since 1918 How do you reverse this?

Amongst a dislikable field Starmer & Reeves still stand out www.ft.com/content/1995...

Some maps people took the most interest in this year @nowcast-eu.bsky.social

🇬🇧 | A year of HoC seat projections ➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats) 2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader

🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — December 30, 2025 ➡️ RFM: 27.6% | 322 (+317) 🟦 CON: 18.2% | 57 (-64) 🟥 LAB: 18.0% | 81 (-330) 🟩 GRN: 13.2% | 26 (+22) 🟧 LDM: 12.8% | 80 (+8) 🟨 SNP: 2.7% | 45 (+36) 🔲 PLC: 1.2% | 7 (+3) +/- vs. GE2024 nowcast-eu.github.io/United-Kingd...

FWIW I wish there was more diversity in Scottish / Holyrood election pollsters but, for reference, the last YouGov poll was conducted in June - 6 months ago

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland | Holyrood projection based on @findoutnow.bsky.social polling 🟨 SNP: 62 (-2) ➡️ RFM: 23 (+23) 🟩 GRN: 14 (+6) 🟥 LAB: 13 (-9) 🟦 CON: 9 (-22) 🟧 LDM: 8 (+4) +/- vs. 2021 Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025

🇵🇹 Portugal | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 29, 2025 🟧 AD: 27% | 73 (-18) 🟪 PS: 24% | 63 (+5) ⬛ CH: 24% | 62 (+2) ℹ️ PIL: 9% | 16 (+7) 🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3) 🟥 CDU: 3% | 4 (+1) 🟫 Bloc: 2% | 2 (+1) 🟩 PAN: 1% | 0 (-1) ... +/- vs. May 2025

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🟣 First Holyrood poll to feature 'Your Party' has them on 0% in the constituency vote and 1% in the regional lists Realistically not enough for them to win any seats Conducted by @findoutnow.bsky.social 🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2572794...

🇩🇰 Denmark | Legislative Election polling averages — December 29, 2025 🟦 Blue: 50.7% (+9.0) 🟥 Red: 46.6% (-2.4) 🔲 Other: 2.8% (-6.6) +/- vs. 2022 [bloc] Projection at the district level 👇 www.nowcast-eu.github.io/Denmark/

Come for the chart of shifting party support, stay for the fury at the fact we're going to have one of the most consequential Scottish (and definitely most consequential Welsh) elections since devolution, yet the Westminster media can't stop speculating about PM Farage in 2029 long enough to care.

House of Commons nowcast - 04/02/25 🟥 LAB: 199 (-212) ➡️ RFM: 171 (+166) 🟦 CON: 125 (+4)

UK seat projection under Proportional Representation - 03/02/25 🟥 LAB: 168 (-66) ➡️ RFM: 161 (+65) 🟦 CON: 144 (-12) 🟧 LDM: 80 (-1) 🟩 GRN: 55 (+12) 🟨 SNP: 19 (+2) +/- vs. GE24 (PR)

FPTP is a terrible system for modern-day British politics, most people understand that You don't have to be politically engaged to ask why democracies in Europe can do it but we can't? The government has a mandate to make history here - even their own party supports it

Labour vote share HALVED in Scotland Down from 35.3%

Aberdeen South nowcast - 02/02/25 (Based on recent FindOutNow polling for The Herald) 🟨 SNP: 35.9% (+3.1) 🟦 CON: 25.6% (+1.2) ➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+11.1) 🟥 LAB: 7.0% (-17.7) 🟧 LDM: 6.8% (+0.5) 🟩 GRN: 6.2% (+2.7) +/- vs. GE24 Stephen Flynn's seat

I think about this image a lot

*PR* seat projection for today's @FindoutnowUK poll 🟥 LAB: 169 (-64) ➡️ RFM: 164 (+68) 🟦 CON: 132 (-24) 🟧 LDM: 73 (-8) 🟩 GRN: 70 (+27) +/- vs. hypothetical GE2024 result

For more than two weeks, students hold an overnight protest at the Shota Rustaveli Theater and Film University. Among nationwide demands, they also want the resignation of Rector Giorgi Shalutashvili. Free & Agrarian University students expressed their support. #GeorgiaProtests

As the year comes to a close, here's a quick update on party performance (1918 - 2024) Per recent polling: 🟥 Labour on track for worst result since 1918 🟦 Tories barely recovering from 2024 Both parties in a fairly consistent state of decline

Big problem with Labour abandoning WASPI women is that they (again) prove absolutely nothing they "pledge" can be trusted The next election will be handed to Tory/Reform on a silver platter if they continue like this

Terrible MP, terrible Foreign Secretary He should've resigned months ago. news.sky.com/story/foreig...

It’s the week before the 6th annual Office Xmas Party & Paul & Eli are doing a bit of shopping. It’s one last walkabout adventure for 2024 & they’re loose in the cramped streets of London! Listen in MONO or STEREO editions! Ep 414: Joy To The Walk Share/Review www.thecheapshow.co.uk/ep-414-joy-t...

Assisted dying bill if parliament was proportionally elected (assuming party splits remain the same) ✅ FOR: 342 (+12) ❌ AGAINST: 271 (-4) ➖ ABSENT: 38 +/- vs. actual result

Gut feeling about the Irish general election: 🟩 FF: 40-45 🟦 FG: 35-40 🟩 SF: 35-40 🟪 SD: 10 🟥 Lab: 5 🟩 Grn: 2 I guess we'll find out in roughly 60 mins if this is anywhere close to accurate

Lost about 80 followers this week on twitter Either the exodus is real, or I've been cancelled for something without realising (!?)

Using my own seat model- 🟦 CON: 240 (+119) 🟥 LAB: 214 (-197) 🟧 LDM: 62 (-10) ➡️ RFM: 59 (+54) 🟩 GRN: 10 (+6) With a CON/RFM pact, these numbers shift dramatically to- 🟦 CON: 331 (+210) 🟥 LAB: 114 (-297) ➡️ RFM: 111 (+106) 🟧 LDM: 31 (-41) 🟩 GRN: 10 (+6) (Not saying it's likely, just interesting)

ICYMI: All four Green Party MPs voted for the Rail Public Ownership Bill yesterday 👍