🇸🇮 Slovenia | Legislative Election polling averages — January 22, 2026 🟨 SDS: 29.0% (+5.5) 🟦 GS: 23.2% (-11.3) ➡️ NSi+: 8.1% (+1.2) 🟥 SD: 8.0% (+1.3) ⬛ Dem: 7.2% (NEW) 🟥 Lev+: 5.7% (+1.2) 🟪 Res: 4.9% (+2.0) — 🟫 SNS: 3.1% (+1.6) ⬛ PIR: 2.9% (+1.3) ... +/- vs. 2022

🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election polling averages — January 21, 2026 ➡️ AfD: 25.8% (+5.0) ⬛ Union: 24.8% (-3.8) 🟥 SPD: 14.4% (-2.0) 🟩 GRN: 12.3% (+0.7) 🟪 Linke: 10.4% (+1.6) +/- vs. Feb 2025 Projection at the constituency level 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Germany/

🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election Nowcast update — January 17, 2026 🟧 KO: 33% | 184 (+27) 🟦 PiS: 28% | 160 (-34) ⬛ Kon: 12% | 54 (+38) 🟫 KKP: 9% | 36 (+34) 🟥 Lew: 7% | 26 (+7) — 🟪 Raz: 4% | 0 (-7) 🟩 PSL: 3% | 0 (-28) 🟨 PL50: 2% | 0 (-33) +/- vs. 2023

🇹🇷 Turkey | Legislative Election polling averages — January 16, 2026 🟥 CHP: 32.4% (+7.1) 🟧 AKP: 30.8% (-4.8) 🟪 DEM: 8.8% (-0.1) 🟫 MHP: 6.3% (-3.8) — ℹ️ IYI: 5.8% (-3.9) ... +/- vs. 2023

🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — January 15, 2026 ➡️ RFM: 28% | 325 (+320) 🟦 CON: 18% | 57 (-64) 🟥 LAB: 18% | 76 (-330) 🟩 GRN: 13% | 26 (+22) 🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 45 (+36) 🔲 PLC: 1% | 9 (+5) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 www.nowcast.uk/home/house-o...

🇮🇹 | Probabilistic breakdown of the latest polling / projections for Italy 🟦 CDX majority: 54% 🟥 CSX majority: 18% Odds of neither coalition reaching a majority of seats is ~28% 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/

🇨🇿 Czechia | Parliament projection, based on STEM polling — January, 2025 🟦 ANO: 35% | 84 (+4) 🟩 Spolu: 22% | 51 (-1) 🟪 STAN: 13% | 27 (+5) ⬛ Piráti: 10% | 21 (+3) 🟫 SPD+: 8% | 17 (+2) — #️⃣ AUTO: 4.9% | 0 (-13) 🟥 Stačilo: 4% | 0 (=) +/- vs. Oct 2025

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales | Senedd projection based on @yougov.co.uk polling — January, 2026 🔲 PLC: 37% | 44 ➡️ RFM: 23% | 23 🟩 GRN: 13% | 11 🟥 LAB: 10% | 10 🟦 CON: 10% | 7 🟧 LDM: 5% | 1 Highest ever % for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party 🗳️ Next election = May 7, 2026

🇭🇺 Hungary | Legislative Election Nowcast update — January 13, 2026 ➡️ Tisza: 47% | 113 (NEW) 🟧 Fidesz: 39% | 81 (-54) 🟩 MHM: 5% | 5 (-1) — 🟦 DK: 3% | 0 (-15) 🔲 MKKP: 3% | 0 (=) +/- vs. 2022

🇳🇴 Norway | Legislative Election Nowcast update — January 12, 2026 🟦 FrP: 28% | 50 (+3) 🟥 Ap: 24% | 44 (-9) ➡️ Hø: 17% | 31 (+7) 🟥 Rø: 7% | 12 (+3) 🟩 Sp: 5% | 9 (=) 🟪 SV: 5% | 9 (=) 🟩 MG: 4% | 8 (=) — 🔲 V: 3.7% | 3 (=) 🟨 KrF: 3.4% | 3 (-4) +/- vs. Sep 2025

🇮🇹 Italy | Legislative Election polling averages — January 12, 2026 ⬛ FdI: 29.6% (+3.6) 🟥 PD: 22.2% (+3.1) 🟨 M5S: 12.7% (-2.7) ➡️ Forza: 8.5% (+0.4) 🟩 Lega: 8.4% (-0.4) 🟪 AVS: 6.5% (+2.9) ... +/- vs. 2022 Projection at the district level 👇 🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/

🇬🇷 Greece | Legislative Election Nowcast update — January 10, 2026 ➡️ ND: 29% | 121 (-37) 🟩 PSK: 14% | 47 (+15) 🟪 PE: 11% | 35 (+27) *️⃣ EL: 10% | 31 (+19) 🟥 KKE: 8% | 24 (+3) 🟪 SYZ: 5% | 16 (-31) 🟦 FL: 5% | 15 (+15) 🟧 M25: 4% | 11 (+11) — 🟪 KD: 2.8% | 0 +/- vs. 2023

🇪🇦 Spain | Legislative Election polling averages — January 9, 2026 🟦 PP: 32.3% (-0.8) 🟥 PSOE: 27.2% (-4.5) 🟩 Vox: 18.8% (+6.4) 🟪 Sumar: 6.0% (-6.3) 🟪 Podem: 4.0% (*) 🟫 SALF: 1.7% (NEW) | 🔲 Other: 9.9% (-0.6) +/- vs. 2023 * contested the previous election with Sumar

🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election polling averages — January 3, 2026 🟧 KO: 33.7% (+3.0) 🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0) ⬛ Kon: 11.6% (+5.3) 🟫 KKP: 8.3% (+7.4) 🟥 Lew: 6.8% (+1.2) — 🟪 Raz: 3.9% (+1.8) 🟩 PSL: 3.0% (-2.5) 🟨 PL50: 2.3% (-4.9) +/- vs. 2023

Some maps people took the most interest in this year @nowcast-eu.bsky.social

🇵🇹 | Lisbon constituency nowcast (Portuguese Assembly) — December, 2025 🟪 PS: 24.0% (+0.3) 🟧 AD: 23.4% (-5.1) ⬛ CH: 20.8% (-0.1) ℹ️ PIL: 11.9% (+4.3) 🟨 LIV: 10.1% (+3.2) 🟥 CDU: 3.9% (+0.3) 🟫 Bloc: 2.7% (+0.3) 🟩 PAN: 1.7% (-0.1) ... +/- vs. May 2025

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland | Holyrood projection based on @findoutnow.bsky.social polling 🟨 SNP: 62 (-2) ➡️ RFM: 23 (+23) 🟩 GRN: 14 (+6) 🟥 LAB: 13 (-9) 🟦 CON: 9 (-22) 🟧 LDM: 8 (+4) +/- vs. 2021 Dates conducted: 11-19 December, 2025

🇵🇹 Portugal | Legislative Election Nowcast update — December 29, 2025 🟧 AD: 27% | 73 (-18) 🟪 PS: 24% | 63 (+5) ⬛ CH: 24% | 62 (+2) ℹ️ PIL: 9% | 16 (+7) 🟨 LIV: 6% | 9 (+3) 🟥 CDU: 3% | 4 (+1) 🟫 Bloc: 2% | 2 (+1) 🟩 PAN: 1% | 0 (-1) ... +/- vs. May 2025

🇩🇰 | Party polling averages — December 29, 2025 🟥 A: 17.8% (-9.7) 🟪 F: 15.2% (+6.9) 🟦 V: 11.8% (-1.5) ℹ️ I: 11.2% (+3.3) ➡️ Æ: 9.5% (+1.4) 🟨 O: 8.3% (+5.7) 🟩 C: 8.0% (+2.5) 🟧 Ø: 6.8% (+1.7) 🟪 B: 5.0% (+1.2) 🟪 M: 2.2% (-7.1) ... +/- vs. 2022

🇩🇰 Denmark | Legislative Election polling averages — December 29, 2025 🟦 Blue: 50.7% (+9.0) 🟥 Red: 46.6% (-2.4) 🔲 Other: 2.8% (-6.6) +/- vs. 2022 [bloc] Projection at the district level 👇 www.nowcast-eu.github.io/Denmark/

🇬🇷 Greece, Nowcast projection - 27/11/2024 🟦 ND: 119 (-39) 🟩 PASOK: 55 (+23) #️⃣ EL: 29 (+17) 🟥 KKE: 26 (+5) 🟦 FL: 21 (NEW) 🟪 KIDI: 15 (NEW) 🟪 SYRIZA: 14 (-33) 🟪 PE: 11 (+3) 🟫 NIKI: 10 (=) - ⬛ Spartans: 0 (-12) +/- vs. last election, June 2023 Majority: 151 Next election: 2027

🇮🇪 Ireland, Nowcast projection - 25/11/2024 🟦 FG: 39 (+4) 🟩 FF: 39 (+1) 🟩 SF: 39 (+2) 🔲 IND: 33 (+13) 🟪 SD: 9 (+3) 🟥 PBP: 6 (+1) 🟥 LAB: 5 (-1) 🟩 GP: 3 (-9) 🟫 Aontú: 1 (=) +/- vs. last election, February 2020 Majority: 88 Next election: 29 November 2024

🇫🇮 Finland, Nowcast projection - 22/11/2024 🟥 SDP: 56 (+13) 🟦 KOK: 38 (-10) 🟨 PS: 32 (-14) 🟩 KESK: 26 (+3) 🟪 VAS: 21 (+10) 🟩 VIHR: 14 (+1) ... +/- vs. last election, April 2023 Majority: 101 Next election: 2027

🇮🇹 Italy, Nowcast projection - 21/11/2024 🟦 FdI: 126 (+7) 🟥 PD: 82 (+13) ➡️ FI: 62 (+17) 🟩 Lega: 54 (-12) 🟪 AVS: 36 (+24) 🟨 M5S: 28 (-24) ... +/- vs. last election, September 2022 Majority: 201 Next election: 2027

🇬🇧 United Kingdom, Nowcast projection - 20/11/2024 🟥 LAB: 287 (-124) 🟦 CON: 214 (+93) 🟧 LDM: 68 (-4) 🟨 SNP: 23 (+14) ➡️ RFM: 19 (+14) 🟩 GRN: 7 (+3) 🟩 PLC: 4 (=) +/- vs. last election, July 2024 Majority: ~320 Next election: 2029

🇩🇪 Germany, Nowcast projection - 20/11/2024 ⬛ Union: 243 (+46) ➡️ AfD: 141 (+58) 🟥 SPD: 116 (-90) 🟩 Green: 83 (-35) 🟪 BSW: 47 (NEW) - 🟨 FDP: 0 (-92) 🟪 Linke: 0 (-39) +/- vs. last election, 2021 Majority: 316 Next election: 2025

🇸🇪 Sweden, Nowcast projection - 19/11/2024 🟥 S: 126 (+19) 🟦 M: 75 (+7) 🟨 SD: 73 (=) 🟪 V: 30 (+6) 🟩 MP: 26 (+8) 🟩 C: 19 (-5) - ⬛ KD: 0 (-19) 🟦 L: 0 (-16) +/- vs. last election, 2022 Majority: 175 Next election: 2026

🇸🇯 Norway, Nowcast projection - 18/11/2024 ⬛ FrP: 40 (+19) 🟦 H: 39 (+3) 🟥 Ap: 35 (-13) 🟪 SV: 17 (+4) 🟩 Sp: 15 (-13) 🟥 R: 10 (+2) 🟩 V: 8 (=) ... +/- vs. 13 September 2021 Majority: 85 Next election: 8 September 2025

🇮🇪 Ireland, Nowcast projection - 17/11/2024 🟦 FG: 49 (+14) 🟩 FF: 37 (-1) 🟩 SF: 35 (-2) 🔲 IND: 34 (+14) 🟪 SD: 10 (+4) 🟥 LAB: 3 (-3) 🟥 PBP: 3 (-2) 🟩 GP: 2 (-10) 🟫 Aontú: 1 (=) ... +/- vs. 8 February 2020 Majority: 88 Next election: 29 November 2024

🇳🇱 Netherlands, Nowcast projection - 15/11/2024 ⬛ PVV: 39 (+2) 🟥 GL/A: 25 (=) 🟦 VVD: 21 (-3) 🟩 CDA: 11 (+6) 🟩 D66: 11 (+2) 🟩 PvdD: 7 (+4) 🟩 BBB: 5 (-2) 🟨 NSC: 5 (-15) ... +/- vs. 22 November 2023 Majority: 76 Next election: 2028

🇭🇺 Hungary, Nowcast projection - 15/11/2024 🟥 TISZA: 110 (NEW) 🟧 FIDESZ: 82 (-53) 🟩 MHM: 7 (+1) +/- vs. 3 April 2022 Majority: 100 Next election: 2026

🇪🇸 Spain, Nowcast projection - 14/11/2024 🟦 PP: 153 (+16) 🟥 PSOE: 118 (-3) 🟩 Vox: 35 (+2) ➡️ JxCat: 8 (+1) 🟪 Sumar: 7 (-24) 🟧 ERC: 7 (=) ... +/- vs. 23 July 2023 Majority: 176 Next election: 2027

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland, Nowcast projection - 13/11/2024 🟨 SNP: 50 (-14) 🟥 LAB: 30 (+8) 🟦 CON: 17 (-14) ➡️ RFM: 12 (+12) 🟧 LDM: 10 (+6) 🟩 GRN: 10 (+2) +/- vs. 6 May 2021 Majority: 65 Next election: 2026

🇸🇰 Slovakia, Nowcast projection - 13/11/2024 🟦 PS: 47 (+15) 🟥 Smer: 39 (-3) 🟪 Hlas: 23 (-4) 🟨 KDH: 13 (+1) 🟩 SaS: 12 (+1) 🟫 Republika: 16 (+16) - 🔲 OĽaNO: 0 (-16) ⬛ SNS: 0 (-10) +/- vs. 30 September 2023 Majority: 76 Next election: 2027

🇩🇪 Germany, Nowcast projection - 12/11/2024 ⬛ Union: 240 (+43) ➡️ AfD: 140 (+57) 🟥 SPD: 116 (-90) 🟩 Green: 84 (-34) 🟪 BSW: 50 (NEW) - 🟨 FDP: 0 (-92) 🟪 Linke: 0 (-39) +/- vs. 26 September 2021 Majority: 316 Next election: 23 February 2025

🇨🇿 Czechia, Nowcast projection - 12/11/2024 ⬛ ANO: 91 (+19) 🟦 SPOLU: 51 (-20) 🟪 STAN: 22 (-11) ⬛ Piráti: 15 (+11) 🟫 SPD: 11 (-9) 🟥 KSČM: 6 (+6) ➡️ Motoristé: 4 (NEW) +/- vs. 8-9 October 2021 Majority: 101 Next election: 2025

🇬🇧 United Kingdom, Nowcast projection - 11/11/2024 🟥 LAB: 312 (-99) 🟦 CON: 193 (+72) 🟧 LDM: 70 (-2) 🟨 SNP: 23 (+14) ➡️ RFM: 13 (+8) 🔲 IND: 10 (+4) 🟩 GRN: 7 (+3) +/- vs. 4 July 2024 Majority: 326 Next election: 2029

🇸🇰 Slovakia, Nowcast projection - 16/09/2024 🟥 Smer: 46 (+4) 🟦 PS: 43 (+11) 🟪 Hlas: 25 (-2) 🟨 KDH: 12 (=) 🟩 SaS: 12 (+1) 🟫 Republika: 12 (+12) - 🔲 OĽaNO: 0 (-16) ⬛ SNS: 0 (-10) +/- vs. 30 September 2023 Majority: 76 Next election: 2027

🇩🇪 Germany, Nowcast projection - 12/09/2024 ⬛ Union: 242 (+45) ➡️ AfD: 135 (+52) 🟥 SPD: 109 (-97) 🟩 Green: 81 (-37) 🟧 BSW: 63 (NEW) - 🟨 FDP: 0 (-92) 🟪 Linke: 0 (-39) +/- vs. 26 September 2021 Majority: 316 Next election: 2025

🇦🇹 Austria, Nowcast projection - 12/09/2024 ⬛ FPÖ: 53 (+22) 🟦 ÖVP: 46 (-25) 🟥 SPÖ: 40 (=) 🟪 NEOS: 19 (+4) 🟩 Grüne: 16 (-10) 🟨 BIER: 9 (+9) +/- vs. 29 September 2019 Majority: 92 Next election: 29 September 2024

🇩🇪 Saxony state, Nowcast projection - 31/08/2024 ⬛ CDU: 43 (-2) ➡️ AfD: 41 (+3) 🟧 BSW: 19 (NEW) 🟥 SPD: 9 (-1) 🟩 Green: 8 (-4) - 🟪 Linke: 0 (-14) +/- vs. 1 September 2019 Majority: ~61 Next election: 1 September 2024

🇩🇪 Thuringia state, Nowcast projection - 31/08/2024 ➡️ AfD: 29 (+7) ⬛ CDU: 21 (=) 🟧 BSW: 18 (NEW) 🟪 Linke: 14 (-15) 🟥 SPD: 6 (-2) - 🟩 Green: 0 (-5) 🟨 FDP: 0 (-5) +/- vs. 27 October 2019 Majority: ~45 Next election: 1 September 2024

🇬🇷 Greece, Nowcast projection - 28/08/2024 🟦 ND: 116 (-42) 🟩 PASOK: 44 (+12) 🟪 SYRIZA: 38 (-9) #️⃣ EL: 29 (+17) 🟥 KKE: 29 (+8) 🟪 PE: 13 (+5) 🟦 FL: 11 (NEW) 🟫 NIKI: 11 (+1) 🟧 M25: 9 (+9) - ⬛ Spartans: 0 (-12) Majority: 151 Next election: 2027

🇩🇰 Denmark, Nowcast projection - 26/08/2024 🟥 A: 36 (-14) 🟪 F: 28 (+13) 🟦 I: 22 (+8) 🟦 Æ: 18 (+4) 🟦 V: 17 (-6) 🟧 Ø: 13 (+4) 🟪 M: 11 (-5) 🟩 C: 11 (+1) ... +/- vs. 1 November 2022 Majority: 90 Next election: 2026

🇩🇪 Germany, Nowcast projection - 26/08/2024 ⬛ Union: 221 (+24) ➡️ AfD: 127 (+44) 🟥 SPD: 108 (-98) 🟩 Green: 80 (-38) 🟧 BSW: 59 (NEW) 🟨 FDP: 35 (-57) - 🟪 Linke: 0 (-39) +/- vs. 26 September 2021 Majority: 316 Next election: 2025

🇵🇹 Portugal, Nowcast projection - 25/08/2024 🟧 AD: 78 (-2) 🟪 PS: 76 (-2) ⬛ CH: 40 (-10) ℹ️ IL: 18 (+10) 🟥 BE: 8 (+3) 🟩 Livre: 6 (+2) ... +/- vs. 10 March 2024 Majority: 116 Next election: 2028

🇸🇪 Sweden, Nowcast projection - 24/08/2024 🟥 S: 122 (+15) 🟦 M: 75 (+7) 🟨 SD: 74 (+1) 🟪 V: 34 (+10) 🟩 MP: 25 (+7) 🟩 C: 19 (-5) - ⬛ KD: 0 (-19) 🟦 L: 0 (-16) +/- vs. 11 September 2022 Majority: 175 Next election: 2026

🇸🇰 Slovakia, Nowcast projection - 24/08/2024 🟥 Smer: 45 (+3) 🟦 PS: 42 (+10) 🟪 Hlas: 27 (=) 🟨 KDH: 13 (+1) 🟫 Republika: 12 (+12) 🟩 SaS: 11 (=) - 🔲 OĽaNO: 0 (-16) ⬛ SNS: 0 (-10) +/- vs. 30 September 2023 Majority: 76 Next election: 2027

🇮🇸 Iceland, Nowcast projection - 24/08/2024 🟥 S: 19 (+13) 🟦 D: 12 (-4) ⬛ M: 10 (+7) 🟧 C: 6 (+1) 🟨 F: 6 (=) 🟪 P: 5 (-1) 🟩 B: 5 (-8) - 🟩 V: 0 (-8) +/- vs. 25 September 2021 Majority: 32 Next election: 2025

🇦🇹 Austria, Nowcast projection - 24/08/2024 ⬛ FPÖ: 53 (+22) 🟦 ÖVP: 44 (-27) 🟥 SPÖ: 42 (+2) 🟪 NEOS: 18 (+3) 🟩 Grüne: 16 (-10) 🟨 BIER: 10 (+10) +/- vs. 29 September 2019 Majority: 92 Next election: 29 September 2024