Wishing all our friends, followers, and well-wishers a peaceful and relaxing few days ahead x

Happy Friday everyone

The best bit about the show Tipping Point is when the host, Ben Shephard, says "let's find out what would have happened if you'd decided to play". There's always a nagging doubt at the back of my mind: that's not really what *would* have happened, is it?

link 📈🤖 Personalised Decision-Making without Counterfactuals (Dawid, Senn) This article is a response to recent proposals by Pearl and others for a new approach to personalised treatment decisions, in contrast to the traditional one based on statistical decision theory. We argue that this approac

Once you see it you cannot unsee it.

You know how as a reviewer/editor you dislike that rush of end-of-year manuscripts that are slipped under the wire, before the Christmas shut-down, but without a hope anyone will action them until January? Well, I just did it myself. The lure of getting that manuscript off my desk was too strong...

They understood principles of good data analysis in Gertrude Stein's day, if not good data governance.

Software companies who add annoying, random pop-ups to their products asking if I would recommend them to a colleague will, ironically, never know how much greater their customer satisfaction would be if only they stopped doing that..

📢 As one of the next round of TRMP PhD students (below) you could join me, Clare Robinson, @averoniki.bsky.social and @marionkcampbell.bsky.social to work on developing a typology of research outputs in trials methodology, based at @wiphcem.bsky.social. Details here: www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

One of my 2026 goals is to be more present on BlueSky! Another is to recruit a great candidate to this 4-yr PhD studentship with us at the Aberdeen Centre for Evaluation -applying behavioural science to the design and delivery of clinical trials. Please share. www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

Dinosaur scene of crime officers at Crystal Palace Park today.

Another day of Teams calls, but just watched a whippet eating a raw carrot, so feeling much better now.

That's just frequents statistics.

I really enjoyed this inaugural—an academic and a personal journey—thanks @vcornelius.bsky.social

[Shamelessly recycling from my "old twitter"] I think my "introductory stats for ER doctors" session went well—everyone seemed enthused by the homework I set.

Idea for a Christmas BMJ paper: submit loads of Christmas BMJ papers, then do a survival analysis of time to rejection. Then submit the survival analysis as a Christmas BMJ paper the following year

📝 New Research Methods & Reporting article: Covariate adjustment in cluster randomised trials 📝 A practical guide for when and how to adjust for covariates. Read more ⬇️ www.bmj.com/content/391/...

💡 Have you ever taken part in a clinical trial or thought about it? We want to hear your views on how health data is collected using technology like apps, wearable devices, and medical records. 🕐 5 mins, anonymous. imperial.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_... #PPIE #ClinicalTrials #DigitalHealth

📢 As one of the next round of TRMP PhD students (below) you could join me, Clare Robinson, @averoniki.bsky.social and @marionkcampbell.bsky.social to work on developing a typology of research outputs in trials methodology, based at @wiphcem.bsky.social. Details here: www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

📢 Interested in a PhD in clinical trials methodology? The Trials Methodology Research Partnership are advertising projects for PhDs starting Oct 2026, in statistics, health economics, epidemiology, social science, and more, hosted at one of 12 UK partner institutions. mrctmrpdtp.com/current-oppo...

Just had a review request where these seem to be the only options. I'm not clicking.

Family history can turn up some surprising connections. My grandfather, Oliphant Murray Brown, worked at Guinness from the 1930s. I discovered for the first time this week, reading through some of his notes and recollections, that he used to car-share with W. S. Gosset (aka Student, of the t-test)!

New PhD position available at @mrcctu.bsky.social to develop guidance on balancing statistical and clinical considerations when choosing an estimand in RCTs. www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

Lots of feedback and engagement after this session. Some gentle push-back still: "But what if there's even just a *perception* from sites that a stepped wedge is preferable?" 🧵

The recording of this webinar is now available on the @nihr-rss.bsky.social YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cNz...

nerds freely nerding in their nerd field is really lovely www.science.org/content/arti...

This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good: dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...

My wife is good to me

Trial statisticians (this may be a well-worn/tedious question)—do you have views/experience of integrating randomised allocation sequences in Qualtrics? Is the built-in randomisation module in Qualtrics fit for purpose? Are there ways of integrating, say, stratified block randomisation?

This is apropos of nothing, but if the plural of quiz is quizzes, why is the plural of bus buses?

Slightly open-mouthed on reading this pre-print (thanks @statsepi.bsky.social): "If achievable, this ...[using LLMs] would enable researchers to predict the responses of vulnerable and/or hard-to-reach populations of participants without the need for time- and resource-intensive research studies."

I'm doing a webinar in two weeks (15 Oct 1-2pm BST), part of NIHR Research Support Service's Methods Academy series, on the age-old question: should I do a stepped wedge trial? Free registration, details here: tinyurl.com/z6cjvce3 @nihr-rss.bsky.social @wiphcem.bsky.social @qmul-wiph.bsky.social

I really enjoyed this talk from @richarddriley.bsky.social today, particularly the football quotes! Looking forward to seeing this available on the NIHR YouTube channel soon. @nihr-rss.bsky.social

To be way too earnest for on here, I genuinely think nerds being careful is political activism these days and it cheers me up

Giving a talk today which anyone can watch online: 1pm - 2pm "The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models" - intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research) imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

📢 Registration now open for the 11th annual meeting on Current Developments in Cluster Randomised Trials & Stepped Wedge Designs on 18th & 19th November 2025 in Birmingham UK. shop.bham.ac.uk/conferences-...

Our wild rocket went to seed in the heat of the summer and it's still putting on a beautiful show.

Pet parrots which typically live alone (whilst those in the wild live in large flocks) were given the technology to call each other. They would use it for up to three hours a day, and developed favourite friends 💔 on.ft.com/3K05vhS

Save the date: Fifth International Conference on Stepped Wedge Design 2026 12th-14th May (online) www.york.ac.uk/healthscienc...

When I come across a new template for a clinical trial protocol it's fun to see how far I have to read before I get to the sample size justification. Section 16.1 Sample Size Calculation!—about par for the course.

Thank you to our four amazing undergrad interns, Maryam, Anoushri, Sandhiya & Sky for joining us in @wiphcem.bsky.social this summer to experience health research in action. Thanks also to @nihr.bsky.social for funding through their UIP and the RSS Hub at Imperial & Partners. @qmul-wiph.bsky.social

Our updated @jclinepi.bsky.social starters pack! go.bsky.app/DNtLZWo

NIHR Research Support Service @nihr-rss.bsky.social has announced a webinar series on research methods (innovation/best practice), aimed particularly at those applying for UK funding for health research who want to bridge the methods implementation gap, but open to all. More topics/dates to come.

I deleted "data scientist" from my LinkedIn profile and replaced it with "statistician". Data scientist somehow feels very 2010s, and whatever it "really" means, it is certain to cause more confusion about what I do and my skillset than does the older word.

When you walk into the gents' toilet at our workplace, the light only comes on in the neighbouring, disabled toilet, and when you walk in there the light comes on in the gents'. Somewhere an electrician is probably still chuckling to themselves.

Happy Friday, everyone

It has been a long week; just squeezing in some time to work on a grant application of my own. Happy days. What do you mean it's almost the weekend?

As so often on a Friday I find myself doing the dance. "Thanks, RIchard, and what if the target difference was larger? Great, oh, and what if we used *this* estimate of the intracluster correlation?"

This is One Simple Trick (OST) I recommend to everyone: ditch the acronyms. Develop a clearer writing style and your word-count will actually drop.

Great crested grebes and chicks out enjoying the sun in Crystal Palace park today