#Wahltrend #Bundestagswahl (10.04.26): AfD: 25,5%, CDU/CSU: 25,3%, Grüne: 13,9%, SPD: 13%, Linke: 10,4%, FDP: 3,4%, BSW: 3,1%, Sonstige: 5,4% ➤ dawum.de/Bundestag/ | #Wahlumfrage #btw2029 #Sonntagsfrage

CfP: DigiSem 2026 – Digital Safety 📅 21–22 Sept 2026 | Berlin Early career researchers: submit abstracts on AI risks, social media regulation, vulnerable groups, cybercrime & more. ℹ️ www.cais-research.de/en/news/digi... @weizenbauminstitut.bsky.social @bidt.bsky.social @bredowinstitut.bsky.social

Morning!

Interesting to do a compare and contrast with the UK-Australia deal. Australian farmers seem unhappy (contrast UK-Aus where UK farmers worried). Looking forward to @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social comments.

📚 End-of-week highlight: the Festschrift for @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social, my PhD supervisor, arrived. Delighted to have contributed to this wonderful volume. It brings back many happy Bamberg memories. Huge thanks to @jmfernandes86.bsky.social and @javiermcanto.bsky.social, and congrats to Thomas 🎉

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 30% (+2) CON: 19% (-1) LAB: 17% (-2) GRN: 15% (+2) LDM: 14% (-1) SNP: 2% (=) Via Techne UK, 11-12 Feb. Changes w/ 14-15 Jan.

Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BILD: CDU/CSU 26 % | AfD 26 % | SPD 15,5 % | GRÜNE 11,5 % | DIE LINKE 10 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 4 % ➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ ➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...

Trump greift nach den Wählerverzeichnissen. www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...

Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Hessen • Infratest dimap / Hessischer Rundfunk: CDU 32 % | AfD 20 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 14 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 9 % ➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/lan... 🗓️ Nächste Landtagswahl: vsl. Herbst 2028 #ltwhe

Un art total • Dessins de la Sécession viennoise Jusqu'au 17 mai 👉 https://bit.ly/4qItJO0 Focus sur les collections d'Orsay consacré aux dessins de la Sécession viennoise. Les œuvres sélectionnées présentent les principes d'une architecture novatrice, emblématique du modernisme viennois.

📣 Registration now open #ECPG26 🌸 European Conference on Politics and Gender @ecprgender.bsky.social 📆 15 – 17 Jun ⏰ Register by 30 Mar The conference champions methodological diversity and promotes plurality in analytical perspectives. 💰 Funding available. Apply by 30 Jan buff.ly/H52lG74

I guess it was inevitable, but sad to see him reduced to this.

This would result in a Parliament with 322 right-of-centre MPs and 320 left-of-centre MPs...

My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.

#Reminder „Die Demokratie ist keine Frage der Zweckmäßigkeit, sondern der Sittlichkeit.“ Willy Brandt "Demokratie ist ein grundsätzlicher moralischer Auftrag, das Bekenntnis zu einer gerechten Gesellschaftsordnung, die die Freiheit und Gleichheit aller Menschen achtet."

Nowcast Update - Green's vote share surpasses Lib Dems, as Labour hits new low. RFM: 350 (+345), 30.2% (50 Maj.) LAB: 87 (-324), 18.8% LDM: 75 (+3), 13.0% SNP: 44 (+35), 2.7% CON: 38 (-83), 17.6% GRN: 23 (+19), 13.5% PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1% Oth: 7 (+2), 3.1% electionmaps.uk/nowcast

#Parteizustimmungsindex (#PZI): CDU/CSU: 28,3%, AfD: 23,4%, SPD: 15%, Grüne: 11,9%, Linke: 9,2%, BSW: 3,6%, FDP: 3,3% ➤ dawum.de#PZI | Der PZI setzt sich zusammen aus den nach Einwohnern gewichteten Umfragewerten für die Länder und aus dem zum Bundestag.

The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025. US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom. open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...

ON THE BLOG: Assessing the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee 15 years on Unit Director Meg Russell and Hannah Kelly argue changes are needed to get back to the Wright Committee’s vision of it helping facilitate a more responsive and independent House of Commons.

The Marist poll out today (Dems +14 in the U.S. House vote) is a huge outlier, but there has been clear movement to the left over the last month. The Democrats are up 4.4 in our average of generic ballot polls today, vs D+2.8 in mid-October. fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

More and more young people are turning to the far right. Why and what can we do about it? Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies. 🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social 💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de 👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw

📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer” I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies ➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election) tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2

Nearly 1 in 2 Muslims in the EU (47%) report they’ve experienced racism or discrimination in the past 5 years.  Most victims are women wearing religious clothing, job‑seekers, and those born in the EU. This report shows a sharp rise since 2016. Read more: fra.europa.eu/en/publicati...

Our doctoral member @reppert-polsci.bsky.social has successfully completed his dissertation. In his Graduation Interview, he gives insights into the topic and findings of his dissertation, talks about his time at the BAGSS, and shares the next step in his career: www.uni-bamberg.de/en/bagss/mag...

In an ongoing project, we ask which countries citizens prefer as benchmarks for policy decisions. Pilot data from the UK show that Denmark is ranked as one of the most preferred reference countries, particularly in relation to migration policy.

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 32% (=) CON: 17% (=) LAB: 16% (+1) GRN: 15% (=) LDM: 12% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 22 Oct. Changes w/ 15 Oct.

R. I. P., Claus Offe, one of the great German social scientists of the post-war era. Here is the tribute of the Hertie School Berlin: www.hertie-school.org/en/news/deta...

Very sadly, John Groom passed away a week ago. My heart goes out to Antoinette, Anna and Helen. www.bisa.ac.uk/news/memoria...

BREAKING: ICE is sending Russian dissidents back to Russia. When the dissidents arrived in Russia, the Russian authorities were given documents relating to their asylum applications in the US which under US law are confidential. This seems to be part of a secret agreement between Trump and Putin.

Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered! In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

1/4. We're excited to announce the publication of: "How populist are ethnic minorities? Populist attitudes and voting for populist parties in the Netherlands", by Niels Spierings & Kristof Jacobs. @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @sagepub.com

This incidentally is one of the reasons they are polling so poorly - they give people who are sympathetic to them little reason to support them.

Usually, when Switzerland makes it into the NYT, it’s about a major bank collapsing. This time, though, it’s the country’s quite peculiar housing co-ops („Genossenschaften“) that make headlines. They’re no panacea, but certainly worth exploring as part of the solution to the housing crisis

⭐ Let's Talk Methods TODAY @ #ecprgc25 ⭐ Join our Academic Convenors @sebastiankoehler.uk & Susana Salgado for a friendly, group-based session to find the right methods training path for you! ⏰ 11:30–12:15 📍 Room 4, Law Building 👇 Details buff.ly/xsjJ14M

On Wednesday (at the crack of dawn), we continue with a book panel, celebrating two OUP publications by Paris Aslanidis and @pietrocastellig.bsky.social & @andreapirro.it, co-hosted with the great @sldelange.bsky.social. bsky.app/profile/ecpr...

🇨🇭🇪🇺 After Trump’s 39% tariff bombshell on Switzerland, even traditionally eurosceptic voices seem to be shifting towards the EU. My dear colleague @goodmirco.bsky.social has just published his (first!) article that shows who the diehard eurosceptics are & how Switzerland compares to other countries

With Brexit, HS2, the Rwanda scheme and more Westminster is easily the most wasteful layer of Government in the UK. Over the past year alone blowing almost double the Scottish Government’s entire annual budget - www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 28% (=) LAB: 21% (=) CON: 18% (+1) LDM: 15% (-1) GRN: 10% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Via @yougov.co.uk, 17-18 Aug. Changes w/ 10-11 Aug.

Umfrageverlauf: #Wahltrend Bundestagswahl (bis zum 21.08.25) - zugehöriges Flächendiagramm (Summendarstellung) ist auf unserer Website ➤ dawum.de/Bundestag/ | #Wahlumfrage #Sonntagsfrage #btw2025

Still no book, but we have an advertisement. www.aup.nl/en/book/9789...