Those confidence intervals in full!

At the end of July, the government said that it had delivered 4.6 million extra appointments since it came to power, more than double its manifesto pledge of 2 million. www.gov.uk/government/n...

How can the government meet its commitment to halve the gap in healthy life expectancy between regions? Reading this excellent summary of some of the @healthfoundation.bsky.social latest analysis from @charlestallack.bsky.social would be a good place to start! ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Policy exchange, backed by Sajid Javid, think we need to switch the NHS funding model to social insurance, and introduce new charges for NHS services, like to see a GP policyexchange.org.uk/publication/... These are not new ideas, but they are bad ideas A thread with some evidence

In its 10 Year Health Plan, the government recommitted to halving the gap in healthy life expectancy (HLE) between the poorest and richest regions. But how? Our new analysis with the ONS points to the underlying factors which any plan will need to take account of. 🧵

Important re NHS 10 Year Plan: "making the plan happen with the resources on offer will be tough. Health spending will grow by 2.8% a year real between 25/26 & 28/29 – lower than historic average (3.7%) & much lower than Labour’s last period in government (6.8%)" www.health.org.uk/press-office...

The Labour government’s most prominent commitment on health is to get waiting times back to 18 weeks by the end of the Parliament. Are they on track? We looked at this for last night’s Peston show youtu.be/yc-9Psk3gk8?... 🧵

The BBC reports that the government is about to launch a drive to use genomics and AI to predict disease earlier and "revolutionise prevention". www.bbc.com/news/article...

No, BBC Chris Mason: the NHS does not make up 40% of day to day government spending. You've left out spending on pensions, benefits, debt interest etc. When you include those, the figure is less than half that. www.bbc.com/news/article...

In January a record 11% of patients attending major A&Es waited more than 12h+. How much was poor NHS performance this winter due to "exceptional pressure" with "mammoth demand" from a quademic of winter illnesses? This and more in our new analysis:

Good thread on a common and quite important statistical error, on many topics other than health (eg education). If a system is genuinely equitable, then variations in the system's effectiveness don't "explain" much. Doesn't mean systems don't matter!

Found the whole interview irritatingingly insoucient given the state of the NHS. But I really got worried when she said this which is so obviously wrong.

Sarah Neville in the FT on lunch with Amanda Pritchard: "The NHS contributes between 10 and 20 per cent to people’s health, she says — a figure I find startlingly low" This widely quoted figure is startlingly low because it's probably wrong.🧵 www.ft.com/content/5cf4...

This echoes a clear theme in my research: there can sometimes be an imperative to present a project as a success, which then makes it harder to learn from an inconclusive or unsuccessful finding. Inconclusive findings are just as important as successes, as is learning why something didn't go to plan

Here's what the "record £26 billion extra NHS funding secured at the October Budget" looks like translated in annual real terms growth. 3.2% pa over two years. Higher than during 2010s, but lower than the 3.7% pa in the 40 years preceding the pandemic. www.health.org.uk/reports-and-...

What is really worrying here is that DHSC don't appear to know what strong evidence would look like and are promoting an approach that will frequently give them false positives about what works...

On 16 March, DHSC announced “crack teams” of top clinicians working in 20 trusts had reduced the waiting list by 130% more than in trusts elsewhere. As a result, the scheme (called FF20 – Further Faster 20), is being rolled out across the country. The claim examined🧵 www.gov.uk/government/n...

Brilliant, on the British Steel crisis. Blast furnaces produce more carbon dioxide than iron. If Scunthorpe closes, Britain would be the first industrialised nation to end primary steelmaking. What is Jingye, the Chinese owner,up to? Should we have sold to them? France blocked a takeover.

Reducing duplication between NHS E and DHSC has been a main plank of the rationale for NHSE's abolition and 50% cuts to the centre. But how much duplication is there?

Stupidity/pseudo science dressed up as economics in the White House's technical explanation of the tariff calculations ustr.gov/issue-areas/...

£105bn a year on debt interest (4x social care spend) is a big part of why it feels like many of our public services are in permanent austerity. The 2008 financial crisis and pandemic response accounts for at least £60bn of that. on.ft.com/4c7agjB via @FT

"It seems strange to announce a reorganisation without including a strategy for how NHSE’s responsibilities will be reallocated (not a straightforward task) or for which decisions will be taken at different levels i.e. at local, regional, or national level."

On the end of NHS England in @bmj.com www.bmj.com/content/388/... Feels like a massive distraction

Great, insightful analysis of the abolishment of NHS England and the halving of the DHSC/NHSE centre @thekingsfund.bsky.social www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-...

Fascinating thread. Especially for cynics like me who already suspected that a fair chunk of the government’s “2 million extra NHS appointments” target was probably met with a load of extra phone calls, & other stuff that people weren’t waiting for & which may not have achieved anything…

The government recently announced that after only 5 months in power, it has met its promise of 2 million extra appointments in its first year. What does this mean for the related pledge, to achieve 18 week waits by 2029? A 🧵

After yesterday's announcement that Labour's promise of 2m extra hospital appointments had been met early, here's a bump up for our analysis assessing the feasibility of achieving a related promise - 18 week waits by 2029.

Has anyone got a link to the data underpinning the govt's press release saying that it has hit the 2m extra appmts target early? The PR says it was published yesterday. But I can't find it and definition of what counts as an extra appointment is vague www.gov.uk/government/n...

In lead-up to Streeting interview this a.m, BBC Today says no surprise 2m extra appmts achieved as NHS has been given extra £26bn - half of defence budget. But that's misleading. £26bn is all health cash increase over 2 years (23/24-25/26). That's £7bn (3.7%) real pa. Long term average is 3.6% pa.

Labour's NHS reforms will promote money choice and competition as "crucial for driving down waiting times". Evidence from a major study in 2007 showed only small effect: 1-2%, "a few days" www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...

On Monday I tried to explain why NHSE and ONS were finding such different things for NHS productivity in the last year (see thread below). Today both orgs have published more details about how their measures compare. Another short thread…

I’m getting really fed up of these abstract attacks on ‘regulation’ - why is Andy Haldane advocating the Doge approach for UK - blanket halving the number of regulators and their budgets? on.ft.com/416pqlx 1/2

Last week ONS published analysis showing that an A&E wait of 12-13 hours is associated with a more-than-doubling of the chance of death within 30 days, compared to a wait of 2-3 hours. But how many deaths is that? 🧵 1/12 www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Hm, I can see myself having to say pretty often that enforcing competition so markets work in the interests of customers means there is *less* need for regulation of other kinds.

ONS estimates of effect of long A&E waits on chance of dying within 30 days. Those waiting >12 hrs had twice the chance of dying than those waiting 2 hrs. From Apr-Dec 2024 1.2 million people waited more than 12 hrs. Association rather than causation but still powerful evidence.

Last week govt published its elective care plan, pledging to get waiting times back down to 18 weeks. Given the waiting list is 7.4m and was 3.5m when 18w was last met (15/16), and 40% of patients are currently waiting more than 18 weeks, how achievable is this? 🧵 on our new analysis. 1/12

With rich tech companies and powerful advocates like the Tony Blair Global Institute promoting AI, have blockers really controlled the public discourse around AI and blocked its take up? Or has AI not yet achieved the claims made for it for other reasons?

The #NHS elective recovery plan isn’t just about hospitals. Thoughts 👇🏻 from a #generalpractice perspective www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/th...

Nice analysis ⬇️ Louise Casey's challenge is political rather than technical. But the political challenge is more within-government than between parties.

NEW COMMENT: Reducing the elective waiting list is clearly the government's priority in health and care So what did we learn from yesterday's announcement? My piece here and short thread below www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...

Economist and ex IFS director Andrew Dilnot, concluded in his commission's report that private insurance was not a viable option for funding social care. But Wes Streeting says it's back on the table as one of the options Louise Casey will look into.

Govt comms, about waits for non-urgent NHS care, refer to meeting the 92% 18 weeks standard this Parliament. This is NHS-speak, describing an internal operational target to meet a legal right set out in the NHS Constitution. (1/2)

The government's elective care recovery plan will incentivise improvements in waiting times by giving extra capital to the fastest improvers. Some initial thoughts based on another, recent NHS capital for performance scheme. on.ft.com/3W6JIs6

The government's elective care recovery plan will incentivise improvements in waiting times by giving extra capital to the fastest improvers. Some initial thoughts based on another, recent NHS capital for performance scheme. on.ft.com/3W6JIs6

The Government has today announced an independent commission into adult social care to be chaired by Baroness Louise Casey. Some personal thoughts based on my involvement in social care reform on and off over the last 15 years. 1/11

A window on public vs private sector productivity growth in education. on.ft.com/3ZVeJAb

Tim Spector's Christmas day food article in the Telegraph could also work as a Private Eye parody. www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitne...

With public spending severely constrained over this Parliament, NHS funding growth is likely to be low compared to historic levels. If services are to have any chance of recovering, NHS productivity needs to improve. And that that requires, amongst other things, functioning buildings. 1/8

What does the attraction of Reform to billionaires tell us about the party's, perhaps unspoken, policy agenda?