Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical barrels.

I mean, eventually demand destruction will result in a massive pivot to renewables which will lower gas prices long term. So... Not entirely wrong?

So the increased price of oil and gas setting in for the longer term is pushing the prices of everything higher. Welcome to another big bout of inflation Year over Year: Crude Oil +57% Gasoline +20+% Aluminum +16.7% Plastics (PP/PE resins) +15-20% Steel +5-8% Nitrogen Fertilizers (Urea) +30%

Seriously think Kucherov is plausibly one of the 5 top scorers in NHL history. 7th in NHL history in assists per gp. 7th in NHL history in points per gp. Only 6 guys ahead of him are Gretzky, Lemieux, McDavid, Bossy, Orr and Dionne. All of Gretzky, Lemieux, Bossy and Dionne played in the 80's.

Nope. Next?

I'm not sure how many ways there are to articulate that you are complete idiots... But they will discover all of them.

Translation: "we want to set up a node between you and access to [*insert basic requirement for your existence here*], where we can extract $$$$ from you in perpetuity... or else you die."

You could apply this comment to literally every potential visitor to the US these days.

The vast majority of the chips AI runs on are manufactured by foundries located in Taiwan (TSMC) or Korea (Samsung). Intel has foundries in Arizona and Ohio, but lag the other two heavily in output. Samsung is building another foundry in Texas that should come online later this year.

We are already basically at the point where this isn't a scenario that "could happen". It is going to. Urea prices have spiked ~20-30%. Which means farmers will use ~20-30% less fertilizer (rationing to protect profits). Which means less food. Which means food price inflation. Baked in already.

Ultra Large Crude Carrying vessels (ULCCs) carry ~2 million barrels. A standard tanker truck carries 200 barrels. So 1 ULCC tanker ship = 10,000 tanker trucks. 20 ships = 200,000 trucks... Strung out in a massive highway convoy... Easy drone targets. Genius plan!

Oh good, they are leaning into the tank.

It's only "stupidity" if we assume this wasn't the goal they were trying to achieve. Which... It definitely looks like the goal they (or *someone*) were trying to achieve.

The two most globally integral commodities Russia produces, oil and fertilizer, were under sanctions - and the Persian Gulf states have dominated global production historically. Now sanctions are lifted AND Russia is exporting *record volume* of both. Weird www.canadiancattlemen.ca/daily/fertil...

Good Lord these people. They literally don't understand how anything works, and haven't put any effort into learning how anything works.

I really don't think people grasp how big of a *debt* the shutdown is causing on *GLOBAL SUPPLY*. This sounds like a lot. But when you realize the US consumes around ~20 million barrels of oil per *day*, this is simply a drop in the ocean. 172M barrels is ~8 and a half days of US consumption.

Surprise. The sanctions on Russian oil get lifted and US/EU support for Ukraine suddenly shifts to concern about the global oil supply... Miraculously Russia is reinvigorated. It's *almost* like the whole Iran war - that nobody seems able to justify reasonably - was designed to benefit Russia.

LoL. Just the most bizarre misreads of world history.

This won't fix global supply. As I just said. This all highlights how beyond control the scenario is. They are flailing.

The release of 400m barrels of strategic oil reserves isn't a permanent solution to the current problem. It is a 1 time attempt to tamp down oil price shocks. If it only covers oil lost by Western nations, it could cover ~115 days. If meant to backfill global supply to rein prices in, ~20 days?

So 3 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz this morning before dawn. The US is now saying it will fully underwrite insurance costs for *all* tankers trying to transit the strait (the cost of that would be far far higher than the initial $20B suggested). english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5...

Let's be clear about one thing. Literally the only oil producing nation this benefits is Russia. They now hold market maker status given that global supply has dropped by like 15%, and they are the *only* nation with spare capacity to help fill up the gap. They literally control the price of oil.

Cue the Oil Prices skyrocketing again ASAP. This is beyond satire.

5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.

This is both unsurprising and horrifying. Cool!

Apparently the Democrats are all being paid by Iran to spread propaganda...? Just like how the Pentagon sold the Iranians tomahawk missiles.

The trailer for EVERYONE IS LYING TO YOU FOR MONEY. In select theaters starting April 17th 🍿🤑🤣

So much for Trump's press conference promises (made up BS).

Barak Ravid (Axios) reporting that the US has requested Israel stop hitting Iranian energy assets. www.axios.com/2026/03/10/i...

I am not sure if they were escorted by the US military, but I can see multiple tankers (like 3 or 4) have or are currently navigating the strait on live marine tracking. Honestar, Run Chen 2, Sunny Liger and the KSL Laiyang (the ship immediately to the left of Sunny Liger).

This administration……🤦‍♂️

It's actually far more bizarre to argue that the working class doesn't have more leisure time and freedom as a result of automation. Are you sincerely arguing that the invention of washers, dryers, dishwashers etc haven't freed up time for the working class? Missing the freedom of life as a serf?

I enjoy reading articles that expend effort to suggest things like Bobby McMann *doesn't* belong on an NHL top line, but Artturi Lehkonen is dependable and probably underrated and thus *does* belong on an NHL top line.

In case you were wondering how bad Toronto is defensively.

This would require convincing a civilian crew of unionized seafarers to risk their lives for a US promotional gimmick which is sick to contemplate. I am quite certain the US is trying to make this happen. This isn't a tell.

So it's cool (for Russia at least) that Oil supply *might not* crater as badly as expected. But the whole Urea/Ammonia fertilizer thing is still a huge unaddressed problem. Global food prices are still going to skyrocket and there is no huge tap of Russian fertilizer that fixes it.

The only 2 ships currently in the Strait of Hormuz are both flying the Iranian flag. Bari 25126 (upper right) and Bari 13152 (lower left) are both Iranian vessels. So... I'm not sure why anyone thinks anything has changed wrt the Oil situation?

The market isn't moving just on the basis of what Trump says because what Trump says is entirely incoherent at best.

47% of the US landmass is uninhabited. 80% of Americans live in urban areas. The US isn't particularly *spread out* any more than Europe is. Most of the US population lives in 3 megalopolis regions: Boston-DC corridor (~58.1M people) The Great Lakes Hub (~52.5M) California Coast (~32.0M)

Oil price dips today likely stemmed from a mix of sellers at opposite ends. Short sellers see huge price jumps (and no reason to see them drop quickly) and had to close positions to minimize losses. Long holders sold because they may not judge the price going THAT high and are taking profits.

In reference to Trump's claims from his press conference.

Death Trap. Death Trap. Death Trap. Death Trap.

My favorite thing to do the past 2 days. Ruin everyone's enjoyment of this early warm snap of spring by pointing out this weekend the weather forecast predicts Toronto could get ~40 cm of snow this weekend. There is a reason I hate this time of year.

Ahem - there is no such thing as a *baby carrot* .. they are manufactured from fully grown carrots by being lathed down into the smaller version for marketing reasons. youtu.be/ZhCDkVuBDtw?...

Literally the only countries on the planet with tomahawk missiles are: The United States The United Kingdom Australia 2 of those have not engaged in the ongoing conflict. The "potential" operators in negotiations with the US: Japan Canada Germany Netherlands Israel Spain Poland Brazil Ukraine

'maybe Iran has Tomahawks who can say' wtf?

Yeah um. No they aren't.

I think people in the US have very "provincial" perspectives of travel distances. I have made repeated "weekend" trips to Montreal from Toronto. That is 6 hours by car each way. The drive from LA to Sacramento is 6 hours.

So the drop in Oil Prices that was based upon the assumption by traders that the G7 would release strategic oil reserves should mean prices spike again now that they have said they aren't doing that. Except... The market doesn't operate entirely logically... And the price is still falling.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: “Iran does not want to harm ordinary Americans who overwhelmingly voted to end involvement in costly foreign wars. “Blame for surging gas prices, costlier mortgages, and pummeled 401(k)'s lies squarely with Israel and its dupes in Washington.”