Aaron Nola has posted a 72 ERA plus over his last 27 starts. Can someone with Stathead access see what precedents exist for a starting pitcher who posts two seasons of a sub-80 ERA+ then manages to become capable again? Especially when the two seasons are in their 30s. Color me skeptical.

How long does it take @baseball-reference.com update? I don’t see updates to player stats from yesterday. @adarowski.bsky.social ?

If we were to include coaching, Lopes may be the best HOF Rule B case that includes a lot of 1B coaching value. No one probably merits election SOLELY on 1B coaching but Lopes’ Rule B case includes 42.4 WAR, 1671 hits, 4 ASGs, 1 GG, 1 WS. RIP

Here are the top five best single-season team stolen-base percentages of all-time as of 2023 (min. 100 SBs)* 1. PHI - 2007 - 87.90% 2. BOS - 2013 - 86.62% 3. CLE - 2021 - 86.51% 4. PHI - 2008 - 84.47% 5. PHI - 2010 - 83.72% Davey Lopes, Phillies 1B Coach, 2007-2010 *827 qualifying team-seasons

His hiring never made sense to me if the league really wants the WBC to be respected. Get an actual manager, or a player with a Yadi-like reputation. Giving a guy a high-level job with no experience just because he’s good on TV is so America.

People complaining that they don’t understand Bad Bunny lyrics then blast Yellow Ledbetter.

Considering folks don’t evaluate “pitchers” for the Hall but divide them by role, if we subdivided the “relief pitcher” role in any manner David Robertson would be worthy of a Hall vote imo. One of the greatest non-closer relievers ever. 17th in R-JAWS despite just 1 GS & <200 saves.

This is the best thing that has ever happened to the Pro Football Hall of Fame because people are actually talking about the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The Hall for America’s biggest sport has held little cultural relevance. This is putting it on the radar of casual fans.

Hot take: I think Spygate should be treated more harshly with Hall of Fame voters than MLB player PED use. Especially PED use before the testing era.

“In my day pitchers were expected to pitch the whole game. Today it’s entirely different. Five or six pitchers a game isn’t at all unusual now. But then it was a disgrace if a pitcher didn’t finish what he started.” Fred Snodgrass, 2026 No wait, I mean circa 1966. The “Golden Days.”

In The Glory of Their Times OF Davy Jones tells of jumping from team to team when offered more money, and in 1906, Germany Schaefer performatively sliding into every base while rounding the bases during a home run after calling his shot. Being showy, pimping home runs and chasing money aren’t new.

I don’t want to bring anyone down on a Friday night but I’m feelin’ pretty bummed right now that Nomar Garciaparra got all injured and stuff.

One of my favorite things about @cooperstowndave.bsky.social is the relentless beating of the drum for Charlie Bennett to get some Hall of Fame recognition.

When people knock the numbers of some Hall of Famers of yore I think they forget about the nature of time. Harry Hooper’s is 35th all-time in JAWS among RF which seems low for the Hall. When he retired he would have been 6th.

Ya know who should feel extremely optimistic as a result of tonight’s HOF results? Kenny Lofton

Andruw Jones’ 7.3% in his first year on the ballot in 2018 is the lowest in a player's debut year on the ballot who eventually got in on the writers' ballot (since voting returned to being annual in 1966)

For all the talk about this being a "weak" HOF class, it ends up being close to average in a ranking of every class ever. 44th of 84. Fine class. www.mlb.com/news/every-b...

Chase Utley, Felix Hernandez and Andy Pettitte pass the Maris Line. No one has received a higher % in a BBWAA vote than Roger Maris (43.1% - 1988), exhausted their BBWAA ballot eligibility, and not eventually ended up in the Hall of Fame except for Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sheffield.

Just got this in the mail 👀 Love the inscription Could be quite a day to have received this one…

Two NBA players voted for Bronny James to start the NBA All-Star Game. Remember that next time someone says the Hall would be better off if only players voted.

That makes TEN Guerrero family members who have signed with an MLB club. Vlad Sr. Wilton Sr. (brother) Eleazar (brother) Julio Cesar (brother) Vlad Jr. (son) Vladi Miguel (son) Pablo (son) Wilton Jr. (nephew) Gabriel (cousin) Gregory (cousin)

Only TWO players who have debuted since 1952 and played a majority of their career games in center field have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Ken Griffey Jr. Kirby Puckett

Jason’s newest projections have Utley, Felix and Pettitte all easily clearing the Maris Line. No one has received a higher % in a BBWAA vote than Roger Maris (43.1%), exhausted their BBWAA ballot eligibility, and not eventually ended up in the Hall of Fame except for Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling.

If you had a Hall of Fame vote and had a vote to spare to give a nod to one of the players who are likely to be one and done, who would you choose? I’d go with Hunter Pence because he was such a fun baseball character to watch.

I am so torn about how I would vote if I had a ballot. It would either look just like this one or, this minus the pitchers. I’d likely err on the side of inclusion but those arms are hard to separate from each other and are very borderline for me.

The careers of Maris, Garvey, Wills and Marion are very different yet have some interesting similarities: Their career WAR are similar, ranging from 31.8-39.7, they all won at least 1 MVP, 1 World Series, and made 7-10 All Star Games.

Given the ballot logjam of roughly 2012-2024, Delgado’s recent strong Era Committee showing, and voting trends among current BBWAA candidates, I think we will see a relative explosion of inductees with BBWAA performances like those below among post-2012 debuts. Think Santana and Lofton.

Only 6 players have been elected to the Hall of Fame who debuted on the BBWAA ballot from 1950-2012 & never received 25% of the BBWAA vote. Allen Baines Doby* Ferrell Simmons, Ted Miñoso* *Official stats as of today are very different than they were during BBWAA candidacy.

Among players to debut on the BBWAA ballot between 1950 and 2012… 89.3% of those who received at least 25% of the BBWAA vote are now HOFers. 91.3% with at least 30% are now HOFers. 94.5% with at least 35% are now HOFers. 96.2% with at least 40% are now HOFers.

40%+ Maris Garvey Wills Marion 35%+ the above plus… Kuenn Gowdy Cavaretta 30%+ the above plus… Sain Reynolds John Tiant 25%+ the above plus… Vander Meer Mattingly Lolich Boyer Harder

Among players still NOT in the Hall of Fame who debuted on the BBWAA ballot from 1936-2012: 16 received 25% of the vote 11 received 30% 7 received 35% 4 received 40% Worth keeping in mind as we see players reach 25-40% and wonder about their future Hall chances.

With 148 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's very likely that Carlos Beltrán will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA this year. Andruw Jones is currently on pace to join him and Jeff Kent in Cooperstown but his fans shouldn't take that for granted yet. My latest projections:

Did you know: there have been many, seasons where 60+ active players eventually made HOF? Even with a fraction of the teams we have now? Not defending all choices within. Vets Committees went *nuts* for a while. But if you're saying "it's too big" now, no. www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tin...

Let's do a short looksie at Charlie Bennett's Hall of Fame case. Typical Hall inputs: offense, defense, postseason, and accolades. First, let's agree tat when reviewing a catcher it is imperative to compare them only to catchers. (1/?)

Voter comps Wright to Kirby Puckett overlooking the following on Puckett: -batting title -7 top 10 MVP finishes, 3 in top 3 -Led team to TWO World Series 💍 And even despite that he is viewed as one of the weakest modern inductees. Loved Wright but if ya need to REACH this far, maybe reconsider?

Yadier Molina - likely first ballot HOFer 41.6 rWAR 2224 games Charlie Bennett - not a HOFer 38.8 rWAR 1062 games 1. Not knocking Yadi here at all. 2. Charlie’s career was not short - for several years he held the all-time record for most games caught. 3. #Charlie4HOF

If you add Vladimir Guerrero Sr’s home runs from minor league and foreign play that appears on his Baseball Reference page it puts him at 499 career professional homers.

Is the view among the Felix/Buehrle/Hamels/Pettitte voters that they should be elected due to their era but that Stieb/Appier/Langston/Finley should remain out because their era was different? Granted, some of the former have some postseason shine that others do not.

Seeing some silly Hall arguments, including for players I’d vote for. I find comparing Abreu to Gwynn or Wright to Utley to be intellectually lazy, cringe, and in the latter case, transparently homerish. There are better ways to make these cases. These “comps” make me doubt the cases even more.

Best BBWAA HOF Vote Share For A Reliever Not In The HOF (excluding K-Rod) All-Time Roy Face (1987) 18.9% Since 1995 Jeff Reardon (2000) 4.8% Since 2001 John Franco (2011) 4.6% Since 2012 Joe Nathan (2022) 4.3% K-Rod received 10.2% last year and is projected to reach 15% this year.

David Wright currently has 22 publicly known votes for the Hall. At least 12 of the 22 voters who cast a ballot for him work or have worked in New York media.

No one has received a higher % in a BBWAA vote than Roger Maris (43.1% - 1988), exhausted their BBWAA eligibility, and NOT eventually ended up in the Hall of Fame except for Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sheffield. 👀Felix and Utley 👀

A post by @jmiloch.bsky.social on the other app got me a-thinkin’. What might Bobby Abreu’s Hall plaque say? For fun I trained an AI model on the text of every Hall of Fame plaque and asked it to write a plaque for Abreu. This is what it came up with.

Next year's 2027 Contemporary Baseball Era Non-Players Committee (1980 to Present) is going to be wild between 4 host of stone-cold Hall of Famers debuting, and the new rule regarding two consecutive outcomes of <5 votes leading to permanent ineligibility. Thread. Let’s see who might debut…

Sammy Hughes was selected as the greatest Negro Leagues second baseman of all-time in 1937 by Cum Posey. Every other starting player picked by Posey is in the Hall of Fame. C: Gibson/Mackey 1B: Taylor/Leonard 2B: Hughes 3B: Wilson SS: Lloyd LF: Torriente CF: Charleston RF: Hill

Gene Benson was a very public and popular figure in Philly during and after his career He is also the great uncle of the Peanuts character Franklin. That’s right.

Luke Easter debuted in MLB at age 33. Imagine if he had a shot at a full MLB career... Most Total Bases in Career with Less Than 2,400 PA by a Retired Player 1. Bullet Rogan (HOF) 2. John Beckwith 3. Heavy Johnson 4-t. LUKE EASTER & Reggie Jefferson

Luke Easter in Triple-AAA Age-39: 30 HR, 102 RBI, .953 OPS Age-40: 35 HR, 106 RBI, 1.011 OPS Age-41: 40 HR, 128 RBI, .956 OPS Age-42: 38 HR, 109 RBI, 1.015 OPS

I don’t collect cards much anymore but one guy I collect is Luke Easter. If you don’t know his story, or even if you do, check out this pod. I am very convinced that in an alternate timeline Luke Easter is a Hall of Famer.