Yes Burnham can form a majority coalition but there will be no guaranteed loyalty to that government. There are diminishing numbers of voters in the bank. But as we have seen you only need to be in late 20’s/early 30’s to get a majority. Cld be less if Reform implode.

This overlook far right nationalism of Powell. Which did much to reshape the party.

The difference in polling for Labour/Green in London is very stark between savanta vs elector calculus.

At a time when oligarchy is on the rise this report other many antidotes to its rise. Particularly think the creation of public broadcasting social media platform would be a game changer.

Badenoch draws upon what I called an American libertarian nationalism here: renewal.org.uk/articles/the... Though before MAGA, Enoch Powell and figures like Murray Rothbard shared many similar preoccupations. Scepticism to American empire and using the market to maintain racial homogeneity.

As I wrote in early June, this would likely be an early Andy move: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Very interesting MRP from PLMR/Electoral calculas which has tended to be the insurgent parties Greens/Reform best pollsters. They are projecting labour on 217, Con 159, Reform 127, Lib Dem 72, Green 30. Labour and Reform on 22% Several thoughts 👇 plmr.co.uk/theroadto2029/

Farage has opted for a Jury Trial My most recent substack.In which I compare Farage to Roxie Hart from Chicago. Has something for everybody in it. The question I pose is: Farage believe his base will save him, but are the era of base elections coming to an end? open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

On paper Farage should walk this. But Restore could be a joker in the pack here. How Restore plays this will be fascinating. Farage might paint them as establishment stooges if they go for him. The politics of anti-politics theatre takes a new chapter

The London authorities have produced this map of places where you can cool down for free:

Really thought provoking piece from John Judis as to whether ‘democratic socialism’ will become the dominant political culture in the Democracy party in 10-15 years. open.substack.com/pub/johnbjud...

Yes more supply. But the problem with the Yimby approach was that it viewed developers as the most efficient actors, rather than the state to build housing. Largest period of house building in the post war era was under the Wilson gov. It never really questioned the developer led model.

Age a big divide here. But also LinkedIn/instagram point to divide on the progressive vote. Will be interesting to see how these numbers might change once Burnham PM.

From @mainstreamlabour.bsky.social essay on the productive state. This get's to the core as to why the Yimby agenda was right on increasing supply. But ultimately was limited because it saw housing as an asset that had to be driven by developers not the state.

London stands in solidarity with our LGBTQIA+ community. You are, and will always be, loved and wanted in London. Proud to host my annual Pride Reception at Outernet, celebrating the enormous contribution of LGBTQIA+ Londoners.

Worth while reading Davies piece in dialogue with Peter Hyman's on Burnham. Both looking to show-that it Burnham's focus on 'politics' rather than 'economics' that maybe his best way to sustain his insurgent stance peterhyman21.substack.com/p/andy-burnh...

Very good on setting out the governance questions Burnham needs to answer at speed. The other one will be social care, which takes up much of local government funding.

A long essay on the ideology of Starmerism. Rather than it all being just psychology or Labourism I think at the heart of the project was the blue/new labour workerist neo-blarism of Mcsweeney vs Starmer/Reeves post-workerist Wilsonite agenda. open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

Labour is right to resist calls for more drilling in the North Sea, which would have no impact on domestic energy bills and be unlikely to generate a meaningful economic windfall. @alexsobel.co.uk for @renewaljournal.bsky.social today ⬇️ renewal.org.uk/blog/drillin...

This is remarkable.

The case for Ed Miliband as Chancellor www.newscientist.com/article/2531...

My most recent Substack: Money for Nothing and your Vibes for Free. How Burnhams plans to move parts of no10 to Manchester show how he must govern. To focus on policies he can either repackage or do not require tax hikes, in first 3 months. substack.com/@leftwingoft...

it was surprising to hear Unite's Sharon Graham criticize Ed Miliband's record as 'job destroying' climate activism. We hope she reconsiders, on a day where UK is under extreme heat warnings. The climate crisis is real, we need a Chancellor who fights it. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Good on Eaton for being one of the people who has actually acknowledged this is a pretty muscular social democracy. But social democracy in a very different political and economic settlement from its classical era.

Clean economy brings jobs and growth, says Miliband as £100bn invested in green energy

All things I am proud to say because of Hackney Labour have been happening in Hackney.

Really interesting point that Burnham cld revive the centre right. But Bush is saying there ain’t much difference between starmerism and burnhanism But starmerism, which he has said had a flawed growth model, cld have succeeded with better vibes/leadedship? Or not because of econ approach?

It’s got to be Ed or Haigh.

This is a beautiful piece of writing. Patrick Maguire is the lead political writer in this country, because he is willing to conceptualise what would be seemingly mundane.

As we approach a possible seventh prime minister in ten years, I try to explain the UK's instability in @politicshome.bsky.social. The volatility is partly structural, but Labour's historical hangups and the Tories' unmoored powerseeking are also culprits. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

Converation between Paul Krugman and Arindrajit Dube on the future of wages. Sweden are developing sectoral agreements re AI. Shaping how AI is used in the Labour market is so important going forward. substack.com/@paulkrugman...

My post match analysis of the by-election. What I got right. What I got wrong. And if Andy Burnham is about to bring back big tent politics: open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

So I got. Turnout correct. The fact that progressive vote completely feel behind Andy . But unfortunately not headline voting intention. But i think the main conclusion hold up Turnout up to now has being benefiting insurgents and Burnham got that bounce at the by-election.

I predicted that turnout would be 57%. So only 2% off. We are hading to a 70% + turnout at general election.

Polanski approval rating took a hit at the end of the locals. But the differential between green vote share between pollsters is fascinating Yougov most recent poll put them on 14-14-14 across all demographic groups. With a 6 point difference between yougov and MIC.

This very exciting to see GLA as a developer again. Its predecessor the Great London Council used to have direct labour organisation and would build housing. The London County Council used to have in house architects. Let’s get back stage capacity we lost! www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Once again @jomichell.bsky.social taking much sense here. Yes we need to challenge fiscal orthodoxy, but ultimately taxes are going to have go up if we to have a truly progressive agenda blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

Pleased to have played a part in putting together this issue. In my editorial, I offer a brief assessment of Starmerism, and set out why I see as the major challenges that social democrats now face:

Very grateful to @bjoernbremer.bsky.social and Sean for this response to our piece. I am a huge believer in public debate to clarify key issues and am genuinely delighted with this essay. In that spirit, I'll highlight a couple of further thoughts in the thread below.

I hope Hull History Centre won't mind me sharing this lovely letter from Roy Hattersley's papers, on the sad news of his passing aged 93. RIP.

My most recent Substack: Andy wins by being able to unite the progressive vote. But it’s close Btw I came to my projections before more in common polling was published today. open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

So bar new polling coming along I think the results could be this in Makerfield (a large pinch of salt please) 46% labour 41% Reform 5% restore Basically everyone else loses deposits Then 57% turnout about 5% higher than the general

Soon, Britain will see its first proper wave of private renters reaching retirement age, as they weren’t able to buy while working, and the results of this may be cataclysmic ✏️ @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com

NEW: Cuts to civil legal aid – government-funded support towards legal costs – mean that 3.5 million people live in civil legal aid ‘deserts’: areas with no active providers. 🧵 THREAD on Magdalena Domínguez and Tom Burrows’ new report:

My most recent Substack: Would a Burnham premiership divest from Isreal? substack.com/@leftwingoft...

Lots of Today prog focus on young grads failing to get their first jobs, which is of course a problem - but here's the real Neet story, about the majority who are not only not working, but are now not applying to:

So finally we get a modicum of reality from those associated with the greens. Only tax from work not wealth will be able to fund an expanding welfare state. So largely what Medway is describing is Labour’s current fiscal policy.

Seeing that Blair has made an intervention. Thought it wld be worthwhile to flag my most recent Substack that looked to dispel Blarite hagiography . That only New Labour put forward the growth model that can sustain the welfare state. open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

How economic insecurity is functioning in post industrial towns and our cities is reshaping the nature of politics-a must read 👇

Come on your spurs!! 🙏🙏