Increasingly impressed by Mark Carney.

Inflation up again, from 3.2% in Nov to 3.4% in Dec, just as it seemed we might be on a downward trajectory. Mostly driven by alcohol & tobacco + air fares, so arguably not the bare essentials. But food prices are still climbing.

🚨Today’s Labour Market stats are out Here's a short thread on the key trends 👇

When we cut 30 affordable homes to protect a distant view, we’re not preserving heritage, we’re preserving a housing crisis 👇

A couple of weeks ago I had the privilege of joining the first UK delegation of Emerging Leaders to the European Union in Brussels. Apparently I’m a ‘future leader’ now, which is although flattering, is possibly a sign that Brexit did more damage than we thought…

The latest fiasco over cuts to benefits reveals the deeply ingrained influence of the Truss premiership on this government. They're paralysed by fear of the markets at a time when we need courage. @maxmosley.bsky.social writes for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A marvellous and absolutely spot-on piece from @maxmosley.bsky.social @neweconomics.bsky.social If Starmer and Reeves don't change tack soon, they and the UK, will be in even deeper sh*t www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

"the financial returns from well-targeted public spending are often far higher than our anaemic assumptions allow... A politics that always talks down the impact of spending ends up justifying stagnation" @neweconomics.bsky.social's @maxmosley.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Really grateful to have my first opinion piece published in the guardian: “Fiscal rules weren’t created by Truss, but their new totemic status in British politics was forged in the fire she left behind” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Today is sad indictment of how we make policy in this country. Our view on the disability benefits cut vote.

“I think some MPs will rightly just be looking at this and saying, I don’t want to be a politician who is responsible for pushing anybody into poverty, let alone more than 150,000.” @maxmosley.bsky.social on today's vote on disability benefit cuts in @bigissue.com www.bigissue.com/news/politic...

I can't think of a time in history where we could influence the lives of so many, overnight and at such a low cost. I spoke to LBC about why we should see removing the 2 child benefit cap as a wonderful opportunity 👇

"New Labour took 14 years and billions of pounds worth of policies to lift half a million children out of poverty. Keir Starmer could do the same overnight with one policy costing just a fraction of that." NEF's @maxmosley.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk calling for removal of the two-child benefit cap.

A stark example of this is the government's plan to cut PIP, claiming we "can't afford" the rapid rise in claims. But @maxmosley.bsky.social's analysis shows this rise has been fuelled by growing financial insecurity, which will be further exacerbated by cuts /9 neweconomics.org/2025/05/what...

We’re still only just learning about the true scale of the building crisis in PFI schools - worth reading this article covering the pretty extraordinary statements from officials at yesterday’s inquiry 👇

Encouraging to see our latest @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis quoted in Parliament today

There is an iceberg dead ahead. My colleague @maxmosley.bsky.social with his other hat on has spotted it. We can all see it. The government needs to change course now.

Important thread about disability benefits that MPs & public urgently need to understand! <50% of disabled people claim benefits! More financial hardship = more need for fair claims. “unlikely the proposed tightening of eligibility for PIP will achieve much other than causing further hardship”

🚨 NEW: ahead of today's debate on the changes to disability benefits, we've been digging into the claim that the rise in claims is disproportionate to the level of need. Here’s what @pollardtom.bsky.social and I found 👇 www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...

New @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis challenges the government narrative that the rise in PIP claims is disproportionate We show that financial insecurity is driving a greater proportion of a growing population of disabled people to legitimately seek support www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...

Good social safety nets let countries have adaptable economies (which this research shows is good in the long run) because they support anyone caught out in the process. The UK does it it the other way around, which I spoke about here👇

📢 Some (more!) personal news: I'm really excited to announce that I'll be joining @neweconomics.bsky.social as their Senior Economist

Beautiful day out in Brentford with @labourhounslow.bsky.social for @maxmosley.bsky.social ahead of polling day next week! ☀️

It’s a huge and unexpected honour to be given the chance to represent Brentford East 🌹

'Around 800 #schools have been built under [the PFI] funding model... on average, these schools are financially worse off and more likely to be in #debt' 💬 Our @maxmosley.bsky.social unpacks findings about the impact of PFI on schools 🚸 from this recent report 💡⬇ niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Why does the Private Finance Initiative have a bad reputation? 💬 Senior Economist @maxmosley.bsky.social gives the answers in this video 📺🎧 where he unpacks the findings from our newly published report 📃 including the impact of PFI on local authorities 👇 niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Not the way to fund public investment. 🎩 @maxmosley.bsky.social @niesrorg.bsky.social

🚨 NEW: I spent years sending freedom of information requests to every local council and read each one’s financial accounts to uncover the impact of PFI. Here’s a🧵of what I found... www.thetimes.com/article/97ac...

💥 JUST PUBLISHED 💥 This new report by our @maxmosley.bsky.social reveals the true cost of PFI 📈🚨 It finds that PFI repayments are on average 3.3 times larger than the value of the asset they built 🏗🏥 and that PFI #schools are more likely to be in #debt ⬇🔓 niesr.ac.uk/publications...

What do NIESR researchers think about the prospects for the UK economy in 2025? 📊 In this blog, Interim Director Stephen Millard asks @maxmosley.bsky.social and Hailey Low about UK growth, #inflation expectations, and if the government will need to raise taxes in 2025 👇 niesr.ac.uk/blog/look-ah...

Such a fascinating chart

This is spot on. People often assume welfare is a block to working, when in reality harsh systems like ours can make it harder to find a good long-term job www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

What Next for the UK Economy? 💭 ICYMI ⏰ Deputy Director Stephen Millard spoke to Senior Economist @maxmosley.bsky.social about future #GDP growth, public #investment and his thoughts on what the government should focus on next 💡📊 Read the full blog here ⬇ niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ne...

Bad data also leads to bigger picture policy issues, like disproportionate focus on labour market participation vs productivity.

Supposedly the farmers IHT will raise just 500m? I think what we all need is a ‘Revenue vs Squabble O’Meter’ when designing policy and I for one am willing to construct such a thing

I do get that the two child limit and and welfare cap are popular with the public (and I get why). But the consequences of this are not popular and ultimately matter more both in the real world and electorally.