🗓️-4 ⏳ #WeekendReading and countdown to the #SpendingReview "Our #FiscalRules have acted to hold back our economic progress, and have led to a trivialisation of fiscal policy making" Former Director @jagjitchadha.bsky.social‬ #blog on British fiscal framework

📣New JI WP📣published by @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @econcam.bsky.social et al. : 'The Interest Rate Effects of Gov't Debt Maturity: Solving the Bond Conundrum'. Read the paper and find out more: www.janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/publication/...

Very pleased to release our paper with colleagues at the BIS in Basle. Sadly Philip Turner died last year and this paper honours him. Short thread follows. 1/n www.econ.cam.ac.uk/publications...

The excitement over ONS February's estimate of monthly GDP is misplaced. The estimate is based on output data only. If we look at the components of the production sector since 2022, I would not get out any bunting. (Obs services and construction matter are also counted.)

The US current account deficit results from an excess of investment over savings - trade frictions play a relatively minor role. This is because of impatient consumers, fiscal deficits and the availability of international funds. The Metzler diagram from my book, The Money Minders, Chapter 5. 1/n

The US current account deficit results from an excess of investment over savings - trade frictions play a relatively minor role. This is because of impatient consumers, fiscal deficits and the availability of international funds. The Metzler diagram from my book, The Money Minders, Chapter 5. 1/n

What should rational players in world trade (the EU, China) do next? Instead of being tempted into more tit-for-tat tariff hikes with the US, they should try, through the WTO, to lower tariffs between the other trading blocks. The world trading system could turn away from the USA.

More generally we have seen a universal tariff of 10% on all countries with some facing much higher numbers: Vietnam are facing a tariff of 46%! A lot now depends on how other countries respond. @niesrorg.bsky.social @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @adrianpabst.bsky.social

Britain has a severe problem with its sluggish rate of growth; while Labour wishes to tackle it, it is going about it the wrong way, @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

As we enter a potential #tariff war, I am reminded of my #StudiumGenerale @Unimarburg.bsky.social in 2010. Trade can collapse quickly and with it, income and productivity. Time to worry....

I am very much looking forward to this on Friday....

"Understanding the Effects of #Brexit on UK Productivity" ⚙ 🔍 In this NIER article, our @econstevem.bsky.social & @durhameconomics.bsky.social's Anamaria Nicolae & Michael Nower analyse the impact of Brexit on trade & #productivity 📊⬇ @durham-university.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The #SpringStatement is in reality tinkering with our spending plans. Are we now re-entering the realms of #finetuning in order to meet a variable target 4-5 years hence? This is a worry. niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Rather than a battle of accounting practices, we need to start from a government view on what it wants to achieve this Parliament on growth and productivity. Then to see what can be funded subject to a clear, transparent account of the risks to fiscal sustainability.

The Treasury needs to stop obsessing about fiscal rules: the Spring Statement should set out a growth strategy. @jagjitchadha.bsky.social in @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

My Op-Ed in today's @theguardian.com. Let's stop tinkering and adopt a credible economic strategy. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Well worth reading @jagjitchadha.bsky.social thoughts on what should and should not be in Wednesday’s Spring Statement. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... @niesrorg.bsky.social @adrianpabst.bsky.social

We can veer away from a rules -based target. We need though to explain why and when we will be back on track. @rjpartington.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

In one week, the Chancellor will deliver her Spring Statement to parliament ⏰ At NIESR, we have long advocated the need to introduce more accountability and transparency into fiscal policy 💬👇 @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @econstevem.bsky.social @adrianpabst.bsky.social niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Not the way to fund public investment. 🎩 @maxmosley.bsky.social @niesrorg.bsky.social

Bond crisis, what crisis? www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

Central banking will continue to dominate much of the agenda. If you want to understand some of the principles that underpin and explain thinking. My book will help.