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Virginia's state Senator Ghazala Hashmi's election as LG means we're likely to see a special election to replace her in the Senate, where Dems currently have a 21-19 majority, in early January. Her seat is very blue. virginiamercury.com/2025/11/19/d...

New Jersey is now at 3,333,509 votes cast. (This will very likely be my second-to-last update)

Clifton, NJ 44% White, 40% Hispanic Median Household Income: $98,598 36% Bachelor's Degree, 88% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 61% (16,272) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 38% (10,125) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 47% (16,488) 🟥Donald Trump: 49% (17,028)

a big runoff last night, in New Orleans: Calvin Duncan was exonerated after spending *28 years* in prison; he tried to get his own case records from the New Orleans city clerk—but the office dragged its feet. So Duncan ran to become city clerk himself, and yesterday ousted the incumbent.

New Jersey is now at 3,301,174 votes

Cherry Hill, NJ 66% White Median Household Income: $125,512 59% Bachelor's Degree, 94% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 68% (22,078) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 31% (10,126) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 64% (26,513) 🟥Donald Trump: 34% (14,185)

Lawnside, NJ 82% Black Median Household Income: $70,338 22% Bachelor's Degree, 92% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 95% (1,206) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 4% (54) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 91% (1,409) 🟥Donald Trump: 9% (132)

So many people are running in NJ-11

New Jersey is not at 3,285,671 votes cast

Parsippany-Troy Hills, NJ 44% White, 40% Asian Median Household Income: $112,923 60% Bachelor's Degree, 94% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 57% (11,081) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 42% (8,199) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 49% (11,870) 🟥Donald Trump: 49% (11,864)

Manville, NJ 57% White, 32% Hispanic Median Household Income: $93,872 29% Bachelor's Degree, 92% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 50% (1,564) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 49% (1,561) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 40% (1,687) 🟥Donald Trump: 58% (2,462)

Westfield, NJ 77% White Median Household Income: $212,700 77% Bachelor's Degree, 98% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 62% (9,285) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 38% (5,763) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 63% (11,316) 🟥Donald Trump: 35% (6,286)

Salem City, NJ 65% Black, 24% White Median Household Income: $40,650 13% Bachelor's Degree, 79% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 76% (655) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 22% (190) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 74% (1,000) 🟥Donald Trump: 24% (326)

Lakewood Township, NJ 82% White Median Household Income: $69,521 37% Bachelor's Degree, 92% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 10% (3,819) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 90% (35,541) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 12% (4,640) 🟥Donald Trump: 87% (34,173)

Edison Township, NJ 55% Asian, 26% White Median Household Income: $127,080 63% Bachelor's Degree, 93% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 66% (20,082) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 33% (10,023) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 53% (21,475) 🟥Donald Trump: 43% (17,554)

DDHQ IN SHAMBLES!!!!

This is crazy

Perth Amboy, NJ 83% Hispanic Median Household Income: $58,490 15% Bachelor's Degree, 68% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 78% (6,281) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 21% (1,731) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 53% (7,430) 🟥Donald Trump: 45% (6,209)

New Jersey is now at 3,260,420 votes cast

Maplewood, NJ 51% White, 34% Black Median Household Income: $167,428 69% Bachelor's Degree, 96% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 91% (10,848) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 9% (959) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 90% (12,296) 🟥Donald Trump: 9% (1,198)

Huge Retirement in NJ

Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, who is the first Black woman to represent New Jersey in Congress, announces she won't seek reelection. Watson Coleman, who is 80, leaves behind a seat that, per calculations by The Downballot, favored Kamala Harris 61-37. www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

Asbury Park, NJ 37% Black, 35% White, 27% Hispanic Median Household Income: $71,080 44.4% Bachelor's Degree, 90.3% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 82% (3,480) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 17% (716) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 77% (3,963) 🟥Donald Trump: 20% (1,054)

Montclair , NJ 55% White, Black 27% Median Household Income: $166,765 72.4% Bachelor's Degree, 97.1% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 89% (16,609) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 11% (2,067) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 86% (18,464) 🟥Donald Trump: 12% (2,595)

Saddle River, NJ 76% White Median Household Income: $236,985 76.3% Bachelor's Degree, 97.7% High School Grad 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 31% (503) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 69% (1,114) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 32% (657) 🟥Donald Trump: 65% (1,341)

My best guess is that Tuesday's blue wave pushed a lot of people (Manchin/Doug Jones) to consider running when they otherwise would have retired.

Secaucus, NJ 40% White, 34% Asian, 21% Hispanic 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 59% (3,654) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 40% (2,471) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 49% (3,996) 🟥Donald Trump: 48% (3,937)

New Jersey is now at 3,254,662 votes cast

East Newark, NJ 62% Hispanic 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 68% (286) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 31% (129) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 51% (281) 🟥Donald Trump: 46% (250)

North Arlington, NJ 56% White, 31% Hispanic 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 50% (2,752) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 49% (2,730) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 42% (3,095) 🟥Donald Trump: 56% (4,111)

I’m just saying, but if I had just gotten completely shellacked on Tuesday, I wouldn’t be asking SCOTUS to let me starve millions of people 3 days later.

AHAHA SUPREME COURT SAYS TOUCH THE STOVE

Mikie Sherrill got More raw votes than Kamala Harris here :)

Guttenberg, NJ 66% Hispanic 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 76% (1,950) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 23% (595) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 59% (1,895) 🟥Donald Trump: 39% (1,249)

Fairview, NJ 67% Hispanic 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 67% (1,539) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 31% (719) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 45% (1,602) 🟥Donald Trump: 50% (1.764)

Little Ferry, NJ (South Bergen County) 36.5% White, 31.6% Hispanic, 26.2% Asian, 7% Black 2025 Gov: 🟦Mikie Sherrill: 60% (1,636) 🟥Jack Ciattarelli: 38% (1,041) 2024 Pres: 🟦Kamala Harris: 47% (1,955) 🟥Donald Trump: 50% (2,092)

New Jersey is at 3,242,563 votes

we really haven’t talked enough about how the ny post tried to make a major scandal out of Mamdani calling his father’s cousin aunt

New Jersey is at 3,227,928 votes

(in case they delete their NJ-GOV aggregate too, i just to save this for posterity)

For months, certain right-wing pollsters on here have accused me of rigging my POTUS approval average against Trump. They say I weight pollsters like YouGov too highly and am "bat shit insane" Avg bias of right-leaning firms in 2025 gov: 8 pts pro-R (2x 2024 POTUS err) YouGov avg error: 1pt

Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill announces his run for NJ-11. His campaign launch comes with more than 60 endorsements from Essex County Democrats.

Former NJ-7 congressman Tom Malinowski announces his run for Sherrill's seat NJ-11

Will be doing my best to report on NJ-11 here

The 2025 Jersey City Mayoral Election Round 1, a contest mainly between Downtown Councilperson James Solomon, Former NJ Governor Jim McGreevey, Hudson County Commissioner Bill O'Dea and Former JC BOE President Mussab Ali has resulted in Solomon & McGreevey advancing to a December Runoff.

New Jersey is at 3,208,784 votes

Democrats have flipped 2 seats in the Mississippi senate, and in so doing they've broken the GOP's supermajority in the chamber.

ATLANTIC COUNTY DEMS ARE BACK BABY

DEMOCRATS ARE CURRENTLY WINNING GEORGIA BY 25