Less than 1 week to apply for this postdoc! If you want to find out more about the project have a look at our recent preprint: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6... #mevosky

Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo, second edition statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/06/h...

For reasons that are certainly unrelated to grant applications, does anyone know of (ideally with some evidence) uses of tools I have contributed to (scoringutils, epinow2, epinowcast, epidist, primarycensored, episoon, epinow, censoreddistributions ...) from different parts of the world?

This podcast is very important to me because it's the only one I listen to that overlaps with my research interests enough for me to be annoying about it at work instead of just at home.

Confession

1/ Hiring: 2️⃣ Senior Academic Leaders in Global Health Data Science & Mathematical Modelling. #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪 Collab between 🔹Data Science & Computational Modelling Unit (DSCMU) at Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Research Programme (MLW) 🔹Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) at University of Liverpool

Guy inventing 2FA: Yes so to start a day's work on the second most distracting thing humans have invented, I'll just need you to momentarily divert your attention to the first most distracting thing.

Really pleased with how this one has come out. We take common output formats for household-based field epi studies, see how much structure we can impute from them, and make the case for reporting case and contact numbers stratified by household size.

1/ 🎤 Today's @juniper-network.bsky.social seminar talk was by Matthew Ryan on "Sometimes BaD modelling is a good idea" 💻 Behaviour and disease (BaD) models: Allow for adaptive human response to intervention uptake & abandonment governed by psychological factors (e.g. perception of illness threat).

Another classic "we know British people are doing these puzzles and we do not care" installment of Strands today. I feel like I am solving a wordsearch in a dream and my subconscious mind can't reliably stick to a theme.

Playing the Pokémon Leaf Green rerelease and I am now fully convinced no one involved knew what a geometric distribution was. "Just draw a random number every time the player presses a button. This will surely make for satisfying gameplay."

Please circulate! Are you or do you know someone from groups particularly affected by Mpox, & those less likely to be heard by researchers? We are working with @thelovetankcic.bsky.social to organise workshops seeking to improve modelling response. www.coproductioncollective.co.uk/news/commet-...

Statistics life hack: stop wasting time calculating confidence intervals, start bounding all your predictions between the plot of Terminator 2: Judgement Day and free chocolate for everyone forever.

Closing March 1- apply for a Research Fellow position in modelling infectious diseases to reduce inequities in health outcomes in Africa! Join a multidisciplinary 4 year project with me at UCL and partners in Zimbabwe, Zambia, The Gambia, South Africa, Kenya and the UK. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

Exciting new Research Fellow position in modelling infectious diseases to reduce inequities in health outcomes in Africa! Join a multidisciplinary 4 year project with me at UCL and partners in Zimbabwe, Zambia, The Gambia, South Africa, Kenya and the UK. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

New Preprint! We look at HIV transmission outside of and within stable partnerships. It turns out that the pair model can have many useful results derived analytically in closed form, and the general numerical methodology should be useful in other contexts. arxiv.org/abs/2602.04638

🦅 What’s driving the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) across Europe? Using machine learning and wild bird ecology, a new study from @L_Brierley & colleagues reveals a shift towards year-round risk in cold, low-lying regions of NW Europe. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A study funded through a partnership with CSL Seqirus has been published in Scientific Reports. The research maps #BirdFlu risk across Europe using environmental AND wild bird data. Read more: www.thepandemicinstitute.org/news/study-u... @liambrierley.bsky.social #AvianInfluenza #H5N1

PhD opportunity in @mche-uom.bsky.social looking at the economic impact of risk prediction in endometrial cancer diagnostics, closing January 15th: www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

Possible example of the principle that if someone gets something wrong in your own area of expertise, you should exercise caution when they make claims outside of that area. I read Sacks' books as a maths undergrad and thought the prime numbers stuff sounded iffy, but brushed it off at the time.

So, some people here are concerned with the sentence in this document that, "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so" - what does it this mean? 🧵/1 www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...

Conservation, genomics, ecology, *and* bats all in the same PhD!

If anyone's teaching an intro to probability course and needs a good example of something non-Markovian, I bought a pack of clothes pegs in 2020 and half of them have spontaneously exploded within the past month.

1/ @juniper-network.bsky.social runs a seminar series Wednesday 14:00-15:00 (UK time) during academic term-time 🎤 Talks on interdisciplinary topics related to interface between modelling, infectious disease control & public policy 🔗 maths.org/juniper/semi... 🧵 summary of talks from Sep/Oct 2025

Opportunity for UK based PhD students to spend 3 months in the Infectious Disease modelling team at UKHSA. It's a great chance to see how modelling is used in public health decision making. If your interested see below for more details: gateway.newton.ac.uk/media/news/u...

1/ Congrats to first 3️⃣ awardees of a new JUNIPER fellowship scheme supporting early career researchers (ECRs) 🧪 #IDsky JUNIPER fellowship scheme aims: ▶️ Support ECR epidemic modellers to develop leadership skills ▶️ Grow their research network as they transition to becoming independent researchers

A PhD opportunity to work on real-time modelling and calibration methods with me and Chris Jewell at Lancaster University iddjobs.org/jobs/real-ti...

We're really excited to announce the first awardees of the new JUNIPER fellowship scheme focused on supporting ECRS: @kathsherratt.bsky.social @joebhilton.bsky.social & @emiliefinch.bsky.social . Find out more about our new fellows here: maths.org/juniper/arti...

Brassica oleracea / Brassica oleracea / Brassica oleracea

When thinking about causal inference, mechanistic or process models are important. I think that the association of “causal” with black-box models leads to lots of problems. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/19/w...

An AI for an AI - new paper by @liambrierley.bsky.social on machine learning approaches to predict avian influenza viruses are zoonotic based on sequence information: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

New jobs for modellers at at UKHSA: Senior Mathematical Modeller (NIHR HPRU - EPR); Senior Mathematical Modeller / Research Software Engineer. A great team looking at emerging threats. www.healthjobsuk.com/job/v7430503 www.healthjobsuk.com/job/v7397991

Postdoc (anywhere in the UK) Modelling traumatic events and mass injury syndromic surveillance with Thomas Finnie at UKHSA More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2352

My theory is that AI boosters grew up playing strategy games where the AI lets your opponent field a 10,000-strong army in the time it takes you to build one farm, whereas sceptics grew up playing JRPGs where the AI makes your party burn all their MP on useless debuff spells and then die instantly.

Abstract submissions are now open for the 2025 Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Diagnostics, Digital, Data and Devices (MEED) Research Forum. Date: 20 November 2025 Location: The Milner Hotel, York www.meed-hta.org

📣 Funded PhD opportunity (UK tuition fee rate) in @hpruezi.bsky.social. #PhDSky 🧪 "Predict & Prepare for Arbovirus Introduction to the UK" #IDSky 👥 Supervisors: @mosquitomicrobe.bsky.social | @baylism.bsky.social | Jolyon Medlock ⏳ Deadline: 17 Jul 2025 🔗: www.lstmed.ac.uk/study/resear...

the next time someone tells you to "touch grass" please check their profile. they may be a tick

The Manchester Centre for Health Economics has three new Research Associate positions in Health Economics (£37,174 - £41,671 p/a). These are 24-month fixed-term contracts from July 2025 to June 2027. For full details and to apply, visit www.jobs.manchester.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Come and work with us! Postdoctoral research job to look at methods for working with early pandemic "First Few X" datasets in resource-limited contexts. Please consider applying if of interest and circulate around your networks. www.jobs.manchester.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Postdoc (Manchester, UK) Working on methods for “First Few X” studies in resource-limited contexts. with Thomas House @tah-sci.com, Lorenzo Pellis, Christopher Overton at Univ. of Manchester More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2310

Shouldn't need saying, but clearly it does "Reporting guideline checklists are not quality evaluation forms: they are guidance for writing" --> onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... ...quality/risk of bias assessment is aided by transparent reporting though.

"Give the NHS some Slack" "Trust in People" "Try to keep schools open" "Defend the science..." Fascinating to see what my colleagues and friends prioritised among the lessons learned from lockdowns. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...

Now published in @plosglobalpublichealth.org ! "Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses of public SARS-CoV-2 data from Malawi" - quantitative methods designed to work with data and computational resources available in the Global South, code available via GitHub. journals.plos.org/globalpublic...

🐔 Calling all backyard poultry keepers in England! We want to hear your thoughts on avian influenza control measures. If you have fewer than 50 birds, please share your experiences and suggestions for future strategies. Survey 🔗 tinyurl.com/e535naw4 #AvianInfluenza #AnimalHealth #OxfordStatistics

Postdoc (Manchester, United Kingdom) Two year Fellowship for a mathematical modeller to pursue interdisciplinary research with the long-term goal of reducing health inequalities. with @tah-sci.com at Manchester University More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2282

www.jobs.manchester.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai... Healthier Futures Research Fellow - mathematical epidemiology is specifically involved in this exciting two-year position. @iddjobs.org #sciencejobs Deadline 17 March 2025, please apply and forward to others who may be interested!

New Preprint! We carried out a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of case data for the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi, showing significant heterogeneity in associations over space, time, age and other factors. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

1/ 🗣️ Presented today at a UK epidemic analytics & modelling workshop #IDSky #IDEpi 🙌 Thanks to @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social & EpiVerse for invitation to present 🔗 Slide set: edmhill.github.io/talks/UK_epi...

A huge thank you to Nefel Tellioglu, Jessica Stockdale, Julie Spencer, Wasiur Rahman Khuda Bukhsh, @joelcmiller.bsky.social and Cameron Zachreson for including me on this @matrix-inst.bsky.social project we just preprinted results from t.co/9ioaiNWMQa 🤓

“Florida man eats diet of butter, cheese, beef; cholesterol oozes from his body”: How much am I to blame for this? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/06/f...