Pro-tip: Never bet against Doug Rivers and @today.yougov.com! With undecided allocated, we had Dems ahead in VA 57-42 & NJ 54-44 https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53293-yougov-surveys-of-gubernatorial-elections-in-virginia-and-new-jersey-show-leads-for-spanberger-and-sherrill

I’m deeply honored to lead Data for Progress into our next chapter. The point of our research is not to determine what our values should be, but how to fight for our values most effectively. Excited to keep working with our amazing, dedicated team to sharpen our strategy.

Whatever you may think of Jeff Bezos and his choices about the editorial page, the Post is the only local outlet doing this kind of high-quality, DC and DMV-centric polling. Thank goodness they're still here.

A real-life story about the amazing progress we've made against cancer And how that progress is now at risk, thanks to Donald Trump www.thebulwark.com/p/research-t...

5:00 am. Final pre-ride check list item: Poppa on board. Now we ride!! #PMC2025 gives 100% of your donations to the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. pmc.org/MB0437

I'm riding 186 miles across Massachusetts this weekend to raise $$ for the Dana Farber Cancer Institute, and I hope there's one thing my 6800 rider comrades and the 3500 volunteers should agree on: Let’s all support the National institutes of Health! #PMC2025

This weekend, for the 15th straight year, I'm riding 186 miles over two days across Massachusetts to raise funds for the Dana Farber Cancer Institute. This terrific Today Show segment explains what it's all about. #PMC2025 youtu.be/vyciUXk_1hI?...

Same

What a loss. Very few do data journalism as well as @pbump.com. Looking forward to following his work wherever he lands

Oops

But follow @gelliottmorris.com for approval averages

Ten-year-old (!) memory, with a bonus: the workings of the roll-your-own Pollster chart

Nope. Not nearly enough. Nor that it’s a budget IN BALANCE funded by income, property and sales taxes paid by DC residents

Aaron was similarly valuable at HuffPost/Pollster during his tenure there from 2011-2015. Agree: Hire him!

Ok, so lots of bad news lately, but this I’m *very* excited about

As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(

Important news that should not get lost in the takes about last night's speech. The team at FiveThirtyEight -- the new team, with @gelliottmorris.com leading the analytics side but also with excellent reporters -- has done truly excellent work. A short appreciation thread

It’s more than ironic we learn of the coming demise of Fivethirtyeight on the day their Trump approval tracker turns net negative. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/ /1

This. Every word of this.

Such a waste. Elliott and his crew did great work.

Well… of course it is!

@skeetsapp.com Is this a known issue? Someone I follow responds to a reply to their post, then either blocks that person or that person deletes their post, so the reply shows up in my feed even though I've set show replies to "no."

WTF @nytimes.com? On a @jamellebouie.net *op-ed* column?!? This “survey” is what surrender looks like:

Los Angeles friends: Visiting your fair city and watching these planes in formation spelling out what looks like “…weeknights on ABC 7.” LA thing? Never seen before

Ever wondered what you would have done at some prior moment in history? You’re doing it now. #StandWithAnnSelzer

Easy (at least it didn't seem obviously relevant in 1982): Programming for non-computer science majors

Every word of this www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

So, survey research friends, is it just me or…. ?

This. There are many great young strategists leading or ready to lead Dem campaigns. Real politics doesn’t happen on cable news panels.

J. Ann Selzer released analysis of final 2024 Iowa poll. "I found nothing to illuminate the miss." Worth reading -> s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25... Final poll had fewer '20 Trump voters (40%) than previous '24 polls (45-49%); weighting to '20 vote reduced error from 16 to 7 points

I wish I’d put it so concisely, but “you have to rely more on the numbers” is probably the main lesson I’ve taken from polling in the Trump era. I feel like my “gut instincts” about what might be politically winning or effective have grown to near useless

I don't think people are prepared for how brutal Trump's mass deportation plans could get. I don't think most Democratic governors realize their laws aren't strong enough to safeguard undocumented people from ICE. I'm literally lying awake at night over this. www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...

“Posts.” Yes! I approve this message. (See the second post in the thread)

I have faced fascism before, in this very country. I was one of 120,000 Japanese Americans summarily rounded up and expelled from our homes at gunpoint, all for the crime of looking like the people who bombed Pearl Harbor. I spent my childhood behind barbed wire. My parents lost everything. 1/

NEW from @rodonnell.bsky.social: Why did Democrats succeed in 2022 and not 2024? One key is news engagement. Those who pay less attention to political news voted for Harris at significantly lower rates.

(take #2 with a gift link): Thanks to Praveena Somasundaram & Scott Clement for including my thoughts in their report on how the polls fared in 2024 wapo.st/4hQMhrl

Not a surprise, but still a striking chart: Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared since Election Day. (Data from Morning Consult.) More details in story: www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b... #EconSky

Some differences between the AP Votecast data and the Edison Research exit poll data: AP has Kamala Harris winning the suburbs, 52-47 where Edison has Trump winning them 51-47. AP has Kamala Harris narrowly winning Latino men, 49-48 where Edison has Trump winning them 55-43.

I am just learning how to use this site, but I have created a #womenalsopoll starter pack for those who are new here too! go.bsky.app/EB8vaNK Let me know if you want to be added to it!

Two cheers for America's pollsters...

Definitely! Please encourage Adam to post his smart takes here. I, for one, won’t see them otherwise.

Giving thanks as we do every Veterans’ Day to the US Armed Forces for liberating my late father-in-law and giving my family a chance to exist. And in case you’re wondering, yes, Spanish “Antifacistas” were among those imprisoned at Mauthausen and liberated by the US 3rd Army.

Same.

Throughout the last two years of weekly focus groups and frequent surveys with battleground state swing and disaffected Democratic voters, three things rose to the surface time and again.

Can people stop writing stuff I need to read? I don't have time!

My only gloat gets to be this one. Lichtman is a scammer and grifter and no ine should buy his book. His type of reasoning should be taught in logic classes as an example of fallacious thought, and in stats classes about what overfitting means for models. Thinnest of silver linings I know.

Lots of people are about to radically change their view of how the economy is doing

Really important to not do a blanket analysis of polling like this yet. The errors are different in the states that have 95%+ reported from those that have less. My data also suggest pretty clearly that polling errors are smaller on average than last time in fully reporting states.

We cannot evaluate how the polls performed until we are done counting votes, and for national polls that will be into next week (thanks, California).