Goat Sea

Was happy to see our very own @anildash.com quoted in this piece. I think there's a lot to process here, but one thing I notice in my world: software development is becoming even more solitary on account of these changes.

This is free for another few hours. PSA: I do not condone Michael Burry and what he generally stands for when he crawls out of his basement, I just thought it would be interesting to see what all the fuss is about from behind his obscene paywall.

My 40+ year old unsolicited career advice: If you're a SWE, don't work for a company where the cost of capital has suddenly increased several fold. Like Amazon for instance. They're in hardware now. There are other companies that don't have to make this tradeoff.

How to be a housing pundit.

On second thought, maybe not.

I think I’m going to start gamma scalping on USO straddles. My general approach has been to stay away from this stuff for the time being, but seeing as how the market loves oscillating between Truth social posts and videos of drone bombings in the strait, why not.

here’s a crazy fact: more Americans have been killed in disputes over parking spots than on the NYC subway this year

Duffy doesn’t actually like transit. He likes being in the passenger seat in a Hummer, giving a Hummer to Donnie in the driver’s seat.

This is a thoroughly boring market day

A big part of how America got to where we are is we created the social conditions where a) business leaders have more say in how society is organized than any other social group or institution, and b) they are completely ensconced in fantasy bubbles constantly reaffirming their make-believe bullshit

I know everything is red except VIX and energy, but oof financials

An excellent read.

George is going to eat ALL of this in one sitting and this is reason number 1 I am on BlueSky.

If we had 24hr trading we'd be hitting circuit breakers nightly.

Atlassian's products suck and they can't write documentation for shit. What are people even doing there

ErectionSk... I mean #CookingSky

Buy longer dated gold vol and delta hedge.

"Once supply chains are established and economies of scale take effect, there is essentially nothing to prevent sodium-ion batteries from fully taking over the market" It wasn't long ago that we were told the energy transition would have to slow because the world didn't have enough lithium.

Yeah, I'm not doing this. I'm happy to hold SOXX + plus hyperscalers that are equity financing without the Altman Jensen circle jerk

"My house will be called a house of prayer, but you are making it a den of robbers”. Talrico here merely following in the steps of Jesus and cleansing the temple of Republican idolatry.

This is how you know that the market is r-slurred right now. SOXX consolidating while software (including shitcos) are ripping.

Liquidity trap? More like Liquidity TAP.

No policy changes. No foreign adventures. No mass deportations. Play golf every day - and look like a hero.

JPMorgan Chase reins in lending to private credit firms after marking down software loans

Given the energy-intensive nature of semiconductor production, Taiwan and South Korea — semi-heavy equities markets — are extremely vulnerable to natural gas price shocks. When natural gas prices fall heavily (TTF closed down 16% yesterday), it’s natural for Taiwan and South Korea to rally hard.

Good print. The Feb announcement (equity raise instead of debt) allayed some of my fears. Debt duration is still an issue, especially with negative FCF, but braking on Stargate is another good sign. Alas, my 220 calls are still not doing great.

EA = Effective Altruism Not a fan. EA = Electronic Arts Also not a fan. It’s possible to deliver interesting, humane technology without being fucking weirdos. There, I said it.

New #USstatistical reality: the headline prints strong, then gets revised away Now we have 13 straight monthly payrolls downward revisions, -710k in total, and 24 of the last 25 months revised lower. At this point, the first print is not data; It is #patriotic adjustments. #econsky

Volatility in oil markets has been highly unusual for two days. Risk to energy & food supply chains, misinformation about the security situation in Hormuz & escalation in the region all imply mor volatility not less despite comments yesterday that implied the current conflict could soon end. #Econ

you can already see it happening in real time as states inconsistently try to fill the vacuum created by federal corruption and apathy on issues like affordability and corporate oversightt

"Even if the long run shock of AI is different than every other shock, the lessons of how to mitigate short run shocks still apply."

You can instantly tell a lot of people never had parents or grandparents who did farming

For elder millennials like myself, skeets are central to our culture. That culture extends to the window, to the wall. It envelops the sweat running down my balls. Skeet skeet, motherfucker.

Me, making recipe testing notes: "1 clove of garlic? That seems absurd, better put in half a head, just to be sure." Me, later: "Huh, might need more garlic."

Nice easy to understand example on how pricing may work. I’ll add one thing - the variation is also due to a traditional pressure valve that hasn’t been working well in the past week: the value of the USD. Extreme backwardation and not enough USD relief can mean confusion = volatility in pricing.

We are now in a situation where financial regulation has fallen behind so far the markets that I don’t think there will ever be catching up.

Fuck Elliot and Singer. They deserve this and worse for making me pay to check bags.

People were trying to capture positive gamma in S&P this year?!

#$DXY now up the same as $USDJPY. Last few days euro was driving the former higher, not as much today. Lets see where this goes, but keep an eye out on PM vol.

Oh nice, we’re now pumping some shitco rare earths #$USAR #$UUUU #$ABAT

Nailed it.

It brings me so much joy that the great Walter Deemer is around these parts, especially these days.

before liberation day we talked about how the market stopped stalled during the winter. Vols started rising after Feb VX settlement. mechanics were already breaking. same things this time. market and vols were signaling there was trouble long before the is war.

Brent Oil Hits Extreme Backwardation, May Contracts $9 Above June Global oil market strains are intensifying, with extreme backwardation emerging: Brent for May is now over $9 a barrel more expensive than the June contract. #OOTT (

Dollar is way too soft for a 28% rise in brent.

LOL @ Shoulder month

Was honestly expecting more from DXY with that open. Let's see, YEN looking like it's adding pressure

WTI Seasonals

I mean