While hardly anyone’s paying attention, a big geopolitical game is unfolding and, once again, oil is right at the center of it. A new global oil war has started, and Russia, more than anyone, really can’t afford to lose. stationzero.substack.com/p/a-chaotic-...

Since Trump launched his trade war, oil prices have plunged and so far failed to recover. And that’s a major problem for Moscow - in fact it might be the most serious threat to its economy since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. A few observations here: stationzero.substack.com/p/the-bigges...

When Trump launched his trade war, he found China that was well prepared, with a clear strategy and that doesn't have to worry about public opinion. In a real war, China would enjoy the exact same advantages as well - and America could find itself caught off guard again. A few observations:

Díky @jeberle.bsky.social! Snažil jsem se k tomu přistupovat co nejvíc sebekriticky, viz úryvek:

Europe’s emergency meeting on Ukraine feels - unfortunately - pretty underwhelming. Ukraine already rejected the French proposal of a month-long ceasefire and UK insists on "strong US backing" for any peace deal, but the US isn’t likely to strongly back anything. Not exactly a turning point.

Europe's main problem is that even if you consider Trump a "deal maker," he's just not that interested in deals w/ Europe. It's not a priority. European concerns hardly register in Washington. If Europe wants that to change it will have to show Moscow/DC it can't be ignored. Until then, well 🤷

China is building a massive new wartime military command—another sign it’s preparing for a potential Taiwan conflict. 🛰️ Satellite imagery has already revealed: - A replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace for training - A new fleet of invasion barges

@michaelkofman.bsky.social on Russian military struggles in Ukraine. Full episode: link in the comments ⬇️

I had the privilege of speaking with @michaelkofman.bsky.social for my latest podcast episode. We discussed the state of Russia’s military, how it has evolved since the early days of the Ukraine war, and what's next. You can watch it here: youtu.be/Vj6oiILlJrY

Had a great time talking cyber warfare, subversion, and sabotage with @dompresl.bsky.social of the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast last month, now out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tifA...

@justin-br0nk.bsky.social on why Elon Musk's criticism of the F-35 is misguided and inaccurate, why drones are not replacing fighter jets anytime soon and why F-16s did not have the impact that many expected in the latest episode of Decoding Geopolitics: youtu.be/X-A_aF7lpm4

🎙️ Podcast! I joined Dominik Presl on Decoding Geopolitics to talk about what just happened in Syria, why it happened, what happens next, and why I don’t really know the answer to any of those questions. Very good conversation! 🎧 👉 youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o @dompresl.bsky.social

I spoke with the amazing @aronlund.bsky.social on Decoding Geopolitics podcast in a deep dive about what actually happened in Syria, what it means for all the key actors and what might happen next. youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o

Bernie Sanders: "But while so many Americans are struggling to get by, the United States is spending record-breaking amounts of money on the military." Well, not really: relative to GDP, U.S. spending on defense is actually at one of the lowest points since the 1930s.

I had a chance to talk with @eliotacohen.bsky.social about why most analysts failed to predict how the Ukraine war would turn out following Russia's invasion - a topic he recently wrote an extremely interesting report on with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Check it out! youtu.be/t7gg0QomgAA

He said: “We now face much, much more aggression from nation states. In effect, we had the 20 to 30-year holiday from that kind of big player, sophisticated states in serious conflict with each other. It’s back, I’m afraid.”

One thing that lacks attention: all of this is only possible because Romanian president declassified findings of their intelligence agencies and did so at an unprecedented scope and pace. Declassification and transparency seem like one of the most effective ways of fighting a foreign influence.

"Authorities in Romania have revealed details of what appears to be a major attempt to interfere in the country’s presidential elections using the social media platform TikTok, and with a series of cyber-attacks." www.bbc.com/news/article...

More importantly, it would also run out of ammo in about 10 days according to UK military’s own wargaming. And the same (or worse) is true for almost any European military.

With Britain out and France and Germany distracted, Europe is lacking a proper leadership more than ever.

“This two-way, mutually beneficial trade meant that cash rich cocaine kingpins simultaneously helped Russian cyber criminals and elites to launder stolen crypto and access cash while evading western sanctions.”

"China now has a manufacturing sector that is larger than those of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain put together." www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/b...

The thing is that you can also technically join peace talks but without any intention to actually ever agree on a peace deal - and maintain the pressure in the meantime.

And the Shortest Coup Award goes to South Korea. "South Korea President Yoon says martial law will be lifted" www.bbc.com/news/live/cn...

This is will be a tricky paradox for Trump and his new administration which wants to both lower oil prices and cut off Iran's oil revenue. Squeezing Iran's oil exports means less money for Iran but it also means higher oil prices (which also helps Russia at the same time). Hard one to solve.

“We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support will dry up’. "And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field’ www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

And they said that globalization was dead.

The question is how much can Russia actually send to Syria without undermining its own capabilities in Ukraine.

Brexit essentially replaced EU immigration with a lot more of non-EU immigration. Not sure if that was the result that Brexit voters were looking for.

With all eyes on Russia, Iran is going through an economic crisis of its own. Power blackouts, wage delays, inlation, 200% increase in defense spending - and Trump’s “maximum pressure” on the horizon. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Chinese ship suspected of cutting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea looks to be stuck between Danish and Swedish territorial waters, unable to leave international waters without being apprehended. www.newsweek.com/chinese-ship...

Weaker ruble benefits export and it also makes it easier to finance defence spending (e.g. soldier salaries), but it doesn’t look good and it probably drives up inflation. But it’s a double edged sword and viewing it just from one perspective is not a great analytical take.

The ruble keeps falling throughout the day but I’d caution against calling this a sign of an “imminent collapse”. It looks to be at least partially a result of an intentional policy. A weaker ruble hurts Russian purchasing power but in the short term it has its advantages.

Ruble keeps finding a new bottom. It looks like Russia stopped trying to prop it up and resigned to letting it drop.

Feels like this still didn’t receive as much attention as it should. Romania has been quietly following Poland in committing to a serious military build-up- if it completely reverses course, it’ll be a huge blow to NATO.