Looking deep into the tail of typhoon intensity on limited obs data Bell @monahemmati.bsky.social Nat Haz

No science posts here for a while. It has been one of the toughest periods for Iranians—there are truly no words to describe what we are going through. We hold on to one hope: that brighter days will emerge from this darkness. #FreeIran #DigitalBlackout #IranMassacre youtu.be/Oextk-If8HQ

Millions of Iranians are risking their lives to demand freedom and an end to the brutality of the Islamic Republic. 13 days of courage. 13 days of resistance. The regime’s response? Internet blackouts, repression, and killings. #Iran #IranRevolution #IranProtests2026 #IranInternetShutdown

Some reflections after returning back from a conference at which I and 20,000 colleagues learned that the Trump administration intends to dismantle #NCAR. This outrage should not happen. deepconvection.substack.com/p/save-ncar

Heading to #AGU25 on this beautiful snowy morning in NYC ❄️ Looking forward to an exciting lineup of talks and catching up with colleagues.

*Busy* Monday for me at #AGU25 NH12B-05 11:12-11:22 Applying the Swiss Cheese Model to Wildfire Risk Management in the Built Environment TH15B 6-7 Town Hall Hurricane Katrina 20 Year Later then RUNNING to Atmos Science section Student/Early Career mixer to talk cat modeling 7-8:30

Today marks the official close of the 2025 Atlantic #hurricane season — a season defined by striking contrasts. From an unusually quiet peak to sudden bursts of extreme intensity, 2025 reinforced a critical lesson: a low storm count doesn't mean low risk.

#Melissa has set new benchmarks on several fronts.

Last year, I experienced Cat 1 Hurricane #Beryl making landfall in Houston. It was both terrifying and fascinating—an intense reminder of nature’s power and how small we can feel in its presence. I can’t imagine what the people of Jamaica and other countries in #Melissa’s path are going through.

#Melissa is undergoing explosive intensification — winds have surged 50 kt in 24 hours, including 35 kt in the last 12! Jamaica faces a potentially catastrophic impact as the storm nears. And it’s not just the wind — the 4-day rainfall forecast is astronomical, with 30+ inches expected.

ICYMI: This week we released our Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report: Q3 2025 www.ajg.com/gallagherre/... YTD Totals Economic Loss: >$214bn (-37% from 10-Yr Avg) Insured Loss: >$105bn (-8% from 10-Yr Avg) US billion-dollar economic loss events: 20+ (7th year in a row) (1/n)

A Nor’easter is battering the East Coast from Virginia to Connecticut, unleashing widespread flood warnings and powerful wind gusts reaching up to 60 mph—especially along the Jersey Shore. Current projections: 🟪 3 gauges — Major Flood 🟥 17 gauges — Moderate Flood 🟧 40 gauges — Minor Flood

🚨 Open Call for new Steering Committee Members 🚨 Are you working on #risks from #extremeEvents under #environmentalChange? Join us as Risk KAN Steering Committee member for the upcoming term: www.risk-kan.org/about-riskka... www.risk-kan.org @futureearth.bsky.social @wcrpclimate.bsky.social.

Forever in awe of this stunning view! #NJ

#Erin has formed in the southeastern Atlantic and could potentially become the first hurricane of the season. While it’s still too early to determine if it poses a threat to the U.S. East Coast, conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for further intensification.

Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall Issued! Affects areas along the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to New York City. Rainfall rates may reach up to 3 inches per hour Localized totals could exceed 5-8 inches. Do NOT drive through floodwaters!

Stunning sunrise paints the sky over Newark International Airport.

Grateful for a few extra days to enjoy Florida after the Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Risk in a Changing Climate. A perfect way to unwind after an intense and inspiring week. #STCRCC

Today is the "official" start to the Atlantic hurricane season. It is impossible to know what exactly will occur, but we can look to sea surface temperatures for clues. 2025 is definitely cooler than 2024 on June 1. Parts of the basin are warmer than recent analog years in 2008 / 2017. (1/n)

Today we at Gallagher Re have released an initial assessment that estimates the May 14-20 stretch of US thunderstorms will drive $4-7 billion in insured losses. Uninsured damage is expected to drive the overall direct economic cost higher by at least another billion. (1/2)

Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) issued for far North Texas, much of Central & Eastern Oklahoma, Southeast Kansas, and the Ozarks today. This continues the string of catastrophic convective storm systems that have battered parts of the U.S. in recent days. #SevereWeather

Excited to host the first #RiskKAN symposium at @iiasa.ac.at with presentations and a panel on #multi-hazard risks in a changing world on april 28th. This kicks-off the new #Risk-KAN WG-structure co-chaired by @marleenderuiter.bsky.social, S.Singh and myself. iiasa.ac.at/events/apr-2...

The gap between where people live and where insurance remains available is widening across the U.S. We explore this in our recent paper, “The Growing Void in the U.S. Homeowners Insurance Market: Who Should Bear the Rising Cost of Climate Change” co-authored with Ian Gray @stevebowen.bsky.social

Ideas for reform: stronger building codes, not developing risky areas, and a federal catastrophe backstop program designed for highly climate-vulnerable areas—covering those rare tail events with excessive losses once they exceed a prescribed limit, modeled on the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA)

NEW PUBLICATION ALERT "The growing void in the US homeowners insurance market: who should bear the rising cost of climate change? Co-authors: @monahemmati.bsky.social & Ian Gray (1/n) www.nature.com/articles/s44...

The #SPC has updated the Day 2 Convective Outlook, raising the risk to Level 5 out of 5—the highest possible threat level. The last time a Day 2 Outlook reached this level was in 2012! Be prepared to respond to this violent system tomorrow! #SCS

A powerful weather system is sweeping across much of the U.S., bringing a range of extreme hazards. An extremely critical wildfire threat—the highest level—extends unusually far east into Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the central U.S. faces an increased risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.

Stepping away from the chaos for a bit—Colorado’s mountains have a way of leaving their mark. Grateful for the fresh air and perspective! #steamboatspring

Weather-related indemnity payout data for 2024 still coming in from the USDA's federally run crop insurance program. Total now tops $9.5B with drought accounting for >$4.1B alone. Several factors explain why loss payments have increased since 1990. Yes, more anomalous weather is one of them.

Go Eagles 🦅 #SuperBowlLIX

According to California FAIR Plan’s 2024 data, Malibu (>$4B), Pacific Palisades (~$3B), and Altadena (~$1B) face significant exposures. Coverage in these areas rose by +17%, +29%, and +27%, respectively, with other high-risk communities seeing even larger percentage jumps. #LAFires

Today we (Gallagher Re) released our Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report for 2024. Global Totals (All Perils) Economic Loss: $417 billion Insured Loss: $154 billion Weather / Climate Only Economic: $402 billion Insured: $151 billion www.ajg.com/gallagherre/... (1/4)

One of the hardest challenges during a disaster is the uncertainty victims face about available resources while adjusting to a new reality. More educational programs are needed to raise awareness about these resources and provide guidance on rebuilding lives during and after a disaster. #LAFires

Cheers to an amazing 2025—wishing you a Happy New Year full of hope and possibilities! #NYC

Feeling so lucky to be back on top of Whistler Mountain, Canada! The views are breathtaking, and the weather is everything I could wish for. Truly spectacular!

2024 Hurricane Season Recap #2: Hurricane Helene- A Wake-Up Call for Resilience and Preparedness This Category 4 storm struck Florida's Big Bend with 140 mph winds and 15-foot surges (NHC), causing widespread destruction. Key lessons: 1/4 #HurricaneSeason2024 #Resilience #Preparedness

The reasons for insurance instability are complex, but not unknown. A combination of inflation, reinsurance, litigation, population growth, rising catastrophe loss costs, and higher hazard risk fueled by climate change all play a role. This is a 50 state challenge. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Excitement fills the Walter E. Washington Convention Center for #AGU24! And yes, that’s the registration line! #AGU2024

Join us at #AGU24 for our session on "Climate-Informed Risk Assessment for Extreme Events"! We’re thrilled to showcase an incredible lineup of talks and our distinguished invited speakers, Prof. Kerry Emanuel and Prof. Katja Frieler. For more details, visit: agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...

What would you want to know if you had 2000+ yrs of daily severe convective storm data? 🤔 I'm giving a talk at AGU in the Climate-Informed Risk Assessment for Extreme Events session on Tuesday at 3pm. Basically @mktippett.bsky.social and I are building a synthetic event set for tornado outbreaks 🌪

2024 Hurricane Season Recap #1: Hurricane Beryl - A Compound TC-Heat Hazard Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Southeast Texas as a Category 1 storm, leaving over 2.6 million people without power for days. The real challenge? A heatwave that followed, creating a dangerous compound hazard!

As the 2024 hurricane season nears its conclusion on Nov. 30, it's an opportunity to reflect on its activity and the lessons it offered: 1/6 #2024HurricaneSeason

I’ve had so much going on lately as I’ve been exploring my new journey in the industry, but I couldn’t stay away for long! There’s so much unfolding in the world of climate, extreme events, policies, and the vital role of re/insurance. I’m so excited to be back and to engage in these conversations!

Invest #99L is now #PTC19 and is forecasted to strengthen into a tropical storm within a day. Central America, especially Honduras and Nicaragua, should prepare for heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding.

The NHC has given Invest #99L a 90% chance of cyclone formation within the next 7 days. Models are indicating a potential threat to Florida, though it’s still too early to determine the exact track and intensity. Above-normal SSTs could contribute to the development of a major storm. Stay informed!

According to NOAA’s latest NCEI monthly summary, as of October 2024, the U.S. has faced 24 weather disasters, each incurring costs over a billion dollars. This ranks as the second highest number by mid-October in any year, just below the 27 events recorded by this time in 2023.