Its worth noting that when the first modern climate models were published in 1970 it was hardly clear that there was a warming trend; if anything there had been flat or slightly cooling global temperatures for the past three decades:

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

🚨 Recruiting Two PhD/MS Students 🚨 I am looking to bring on at least two GRAs (M.S. or Ph.D. Level) beginning Spring or Fall 2026 to join our CHAOS research group. Research projects will be related to artificial intelligence and machine learning applications for extreme temperatures and rainfall

🌳 Deforestation and deadly heat A new study links tropical deforestation to ~28,000 heat-related deaths each year. Local warming from forest loss now accounts for over a third of climate heat mortality in affected regions. 🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41... #SciComm #ClimateCrisis 🧪

🚨I’m excited to share that the final version of my first PhD paper is already published! With my amazing advisor, Maria Molina, we characterized the predictability of North American weather regimes.

Katie Dagon @ncar-ucar.bsky.social presents our next Lecture in #Climate #Data Science! 📅 THURS, 7/24/25 🕧 12:30p ET * please note time-shift this week * 📍 @columbiaseas.bsky.social Innovation Hub/Zoom 💻 RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-202... @climate.columbia.edu #LEAPEducation #CESM #AI

Please consider submitting an abstract to the Weather Regime session that I am co-chairing at the AMS 106th Annual Meeting. 👍🏼

New Article: "When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis" rdcu.be/evfGV A causality-guided explainable AI framework shows soil moisture dominates vapour pressure deficit in shaping global photosynthesis during water-limited conditions.

Published in JGR:MLC! We introduce CaStLe (Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning), a method for grid-level space-time causal discovery that scales efficiently in high-dimensional Earth system data. It enables causal analysis of grid-level processes like eruption plumes. #EarthScience #CausalDiscovery

👏👏👏👏

⚒️ Article: Both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the Southwestern US in recent decades @ynkuo.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Under Trump, NOAA ran the most recent competition for their highly prestigious postdoc program in climate and global change — but funded no one, wasting huge amounts of applicant and reviewer time. It gets a lot worse. Now current postdocs in the program are going unpaid.

As the UK prepares for an extended heatwave over coming days, interesting new @natgeosci.nature.com research suggests longer heatwaves as climate warms #climate #heatwave www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Climate mitigation and adaptation measures are not costs. They are investments. The true costs occur when mitigation fails and adaptation is too slow so we suffer from continually worsening extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods. Invest now to reduce costs in future.

The 💯-hour Weather and Climate Livestream is now available on YouTube! Head to www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcWR... to rewatch your favorite talks, catch up on the parts you missed, and learn how you can help Save America's Forecasts. And there's still time to call your reps at wclivestream.com/act

Our first paper on the CREDIT AI weather prediction framework is now published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science! Updated paper includes comparisons with pangu and more details about the model. Check it out at www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Yesterday from Iowa City ☁️

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started but have you ever wondered how hurricane seeds form? Read about it 👇 Thanks to @dinahvp.bsky.social ‪‪@usatoday.com for the article! www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

While global mean sea level rise over recent decades has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases, the regional pattern in the Pacific has likely resulted from sulfate aerosol emissions - with important implications for the coming decades... www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

9 people were killed in a tornado last night in KY. The NWS office responsible for that area has faced some of the most extreme cuts by the Trump administration, including the loss of overnight forecasting. Last night, they were rushing to find help for the office. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/w...

HAPPY 75th, NSF! We’re celebrating this milestone by highlighting some of NSF’s most transformative accomplishments—innovations that have shaped our world and continue to drive progress in health, technology, the environment, and beyond. Read on 🧵(1/11):

87 years ago. In April 1938, Guy Callendar published the first evidence from thermometer observations that the world’s land areas were warming. He also linked the observed warming to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ from burning coal. 87 years ago. rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Contrary to popular belief, what is important in science is as much its spirit as its product: it is as much the openmindedness, the primacy of criticism, the submission to the unforeseen, however upsetting, as the result, however new that may be. – Francois Jacob www.nature.com/articles/s41...

www.nature.com/articles/s41... Yep.

We can also explore trends in extreme months. The wettest month of the year has become 20% wetter in the period since 1836. #RainfallRescue

Five years ago today, most historical UK monthly rainfall observations were not available to scientists. But the 66,000 pieces of paper containing the data had been scanned. With covid lockdown approaching we saw an opportunity to transcribe the data. #RainfallRescue began... 🧵

You gotta laugh or you cry! This is well done

🚨 WeatherBench Update 1. WeatherBench-X, our new evaluation code, is now on GitHub: github.com/google-resea... 2. New models (plus other small updates) on the WeatherBench website: sites.research.google/weatherbench/ 1/n

Remember that big snowstorm that dumped a record amount of snow on New Orleans a few weeks ago? Should have been a huge disaster for an unprepared area right? It wasn't because NWS warned the city & state:https://www.axios.com/local/new-orleans/2025/01/23/interstate-closure-record-snowfall-louisiana

Normal: Fiscally conservative administrations carefully considering cuts to reduce costs without losing function or expertise, improving efficiency. Not normal: Hacking away without any foresight, burning taxpayer-funded expertise, & expecting you'll be left with anything remotely functional.

What was the need to call them "daemonic processes"? 😂

Huge thanks to my sister for helping put these together.

🤩

The Iowa Flood Center has selected me to be featured in their Student Spotlight. I feel deeply honored—thank you so much for this recognition! iowafloodcenter.uiowa.edu/news/2025/01...

What an enriching experience at #AMS2025! Yesterday I presented my poster on tropical cyclones and today I shared our forecast model. I'm grateful for the interest and warmth from the scientific community. Thank you @ametsoc.bsky.social for this incredible opportunity to share and learn. 🌪️🎯

Subseasonal forecasts remain exceptionally confident on a transition from the current Alaskan Ridge to a prolonged Pacific Ridge regime. It is rare to see such strong anomalies at lead-times of 3-5 weeks which do not vary substantially run-to-run. simonleewx.com/gefs_north_a...

A significant cold-air outbreak will engulf a large part of North America this coming weekend. This is due to the onset of an Alaskan Ridge weather regime (doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...) As with almost every cold air outbreak, some news headlines may talk about the "polar vortex". But is it involved? 🧵

As the climate data for 2024 continues to arrive, I've updated my graphic showing changes in various climate indicators for the recent past, and the last 2000 years. Most notable change is a big jump for tropospheric temperatures (TLT) in 2024. [Sea level and land humidity data not yet available.]

If you're into TC Rapid Intensification, check out Duván's (@dunieves.bsky.social) poster on asymmetric convection tomorrow at 3:00 pm! #AMS2025 ams.confex.com/ams/105ANNUA...

There is no end to wildfire season in places like LA anymore. I just pulled the latest Fire Weather Index Data and what's striking is risky conditions have not let up in Dec, Jan as they usually do. Extreme dryness is overlapping with high wind speeds which are literally ~fanning the flames~.

AMS will host The Gerald A. Meehl Symposium next week in New Orleans -- celebrating the scientific contributions and impressive career of Jerry Meehl, one of the most humble, down-to-earth, and deeply curious scientists I am honored to know and work with: blog.ametsoc.org/2025/01/06/b...

"A request made through ChatGPT, an AI-based virtual assistant, consumes 10 times the electricity of a Google Search" This isn't a game. This is accelerated destruction via huge usage of power, water, resources etc. Stop using it - especially for messing about!! www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

A little thread* about a fun paper that came out of an undergrad senior capstone here at UMD. With Emma Bonnano, Ursula Rack, and Jake Gebbie. 'A century of observed temperature change in the Indian Ocean' agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... 1/12 🌊 *moved from the bad place

🚨New preprint🚨from @ecmwf.bsky.social introducing AIFS-CRPS, a new data-driven ensemble system for medium-range and subseasonal forecasting. arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832

Fun read! Including a quiz on how ignorant we are. "In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist — but it is often useful to act as if it does." www.nature.com/articles/d41...

It's today! Please join me in my poster presentation today at #AGU24.

Interested in weather regimes? Come say hi tomorrow morning at my poster, and let's discuss how they are changing! (A41T-1874) #AGU2024 @agu.org agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...

My group’s paper on evidential deep learning that I spoke about earlier this morning #AGU24 is now in final form at AIES: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Happy to make my first post here to promote my poster at @agu_org! I’ll be presenting on the atmospheric precursors of MCSs in the tropical Andes. agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...