Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles. He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care. I’m sticking with Graham.

3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go! Almost to the finish line folks! ✊

NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.

In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke: 🟡 52% went to Cuomo 🔴 17% went to Sliwa 🔵 10% went to Mamdani ⚫️ 21% went to undecided So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.

I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided

I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades. So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday. We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.

@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to

If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

Ayyy that’s my poll

Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon. More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.

Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research! After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.

Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:

Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing Thanks!

Wild story in the WSJ. It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below. But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.

Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him

And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office

For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative. 10-day unweighted rolling average: • Feb 1 🟢 +8.6 • Feb 15 🟢 +5.3 • Mar 1 🟢 +1.3 • Mar 10 🔴 -0.2

Oh ok

I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?

Hey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!

Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there. Sometimes life is just so beautiful.

I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️ www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...

I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express

CHICKEN COOP — WE NEVER LEFT

Very early pass at the 2026 House landscape

My favorite thing about the late-called California House races (due to vote by mail) is that some Republicans are accusing Democrats are stealing them, yet they think we forgot to steal the presidency and Senate

You have got to be kidding me

Most Americans are paying little-to-no attention to any of the Trump cabinet picks or ensuing drama.

AOC is our party’s most effective messenger on ~90% of issues, and it’s not particularly close.

The “just stop doing identity politics” crowd (Yglesias, etc.) really just want that to be the quick fix for the Democratic Party, but it really just reveals how lazy they are in the way they think about politics.

I have a lot of respect for these folks. Not an easy vote to take, especially since they knew it would pass easily. Especially for Ossoff and Warnock.

Does anyone remember watching the livestream of the ranked choice voting tabulation of the AK-AL special election in August 2022, where we were literally just watching someone click buttons on their desktop? It was legit thrilling.

The FBI raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, seizing phone, electronics Polymarket recently hired Nate Silver and raised $45 million led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and other funding from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi...

NEW: Michelle Steel's views on gay rights as she loses. MORE LATER!

We need to stop listening to the Obama & Clinton strategists We need to stop listening to the Pod Save America bros We need people who aren’t mentally mired in the past We need a new generation of strategists that are big picture innovators that aren’t afraid to take giant leaps into the unknown

Beginning my deep dive process on the House seats (for both parties) I expect to be top tier targets in 2026. AZ-01 (R-Schweikert) is pretty much built for a midterm Dem flip. ✅ Poor performing incumbent that votes to the right of his district ✅ Very college educated ✅ Very wealthy ✅ Pretty white

I’m all for Democrats doing some soul-searching and changing our media/social media/communications strategies to build a more sustainable and successful electoral coalition. But even if we fuck that up (probable/likely) our best strategy for 2026/2028 is likely still gonna be “let Trump be Trump.”

Big things are happening

With AZ-06 now called for Ciscomani (R), based on race projections from AP & DDHQ, Republicans have now clinched 218 seats in the House — giving them a majority & a trifecta There are still 8 outstanding races Republicans will likely end up with 220-222 seats vs. 213-215 for Dems God help us all

Rs are currently on pace to win 220-221 House seats 4 House Rs are reportedly being considered to join the Trump admin: Rogers (AL) Graves (MO) Stefanik (NY) Thompson (PA) If all are nominated & confirmed, that would mean they’d have 0-1 votes to spare until special elections

Most common post-election replies on Twitter: “Cope” “We are all going to die” — Most common replies here: “Would you like a homemade brownie”

Only posting this here — House results thus far: Seeing about 20 clear targets for Ds and 20 clear targets for Rs in 2026.

Been getting some requests to cross-post here, worthwhile?