Danish local elections tomorrow. I wonder if the UK media/political class will continue waxing lyrical about the 'Danish model' as a silver bullet for Labour after the Danish SocDems inevitably do poorly...

What we know, final edition of the night: [Now in 3 parts] —Prop 50 wins —VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG —Dems gain leg seats in VA, NJ, & MS —Dems defend NJ-Gov —Dems win NJ+VA trifectas —Mamdani wins —PA Dems win state supreme court —ME anti-mail voting measure loses —GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices

Pro-EU centrists surging last minute to first place? Ed Davey is grinning and rubbing his hands together.

Caerphilly Senedd By-Election Result: 🌼 PLC: 47.4% (+19.0) ➡️ REF: 36.0% (+34.2) 🌹 LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) 🌳 CON: 2.0% (-15.3) 🌍 GRN: 1.5% (New) 🔶 LDM: 1.5% (-1.2) 🐉 GWL: 0.3% (New) 💷 UKIP: 0.2% (New) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2021.

So these supposed narcoterrorists are so dangerous that they need to be executed by drone strike at sea, but if captured it's safe to just repatriate them and not prosecute them? Or perhaps the US has just been murdering people in the Caribbean?

There it is

The right-wing campaign group that helped topple Roe v Wade in the US is now working to roll back abortion laws in the UK, with the help of Nigel Farage. Its first step? Trying to create a debate around "free speech" www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/w...

So in one weekend we've had: 🇯🇵 Japan's decades long ruling coalition splits 🇫🇷 France gets a new(ish) PM 🇵🇪 Peru's president impeached 🇲🇬 Madagascar's president possibly ousted 🇻🇪 Nobel Peace Prize awarded 🇵🇸 Gaza ceasefire comes into force 🇵🇰 Pakistan-Taliban clashes Anything I've missed?

Rajoelina might be about to leave office the way he entered it

Peru’s Congress has voted to remove deeply unpopular President Dina Boluarte from office as a crime wave grips the South American nation.

Obviously very very welcome news but I have a real sinking feeling that as soon as the hostages are returned, Netanyahu will hit resume and plunge Gaza back into violence. As far as I can tell there are no safeguards against this, but I really hope I am proven wrong.

Quite the headline

Monsieur Macron I am ready to serve

Prime example of why the immigration conversation is so misinformed: @thetimes.com writes an article about the 1.3m people who've moved to the UK since Brexit, vast majority of whom came on work/study/family visas... And yet every single photo in the article is of small boat/Channel crossings

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

I'm wary of speculating on someone's health but it's hard to deny that he's looking increasingly like post-2013 Bouteflika

Looks like Thailand's influential ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra is returning to self-imposed exile ahead of tomorrow's PM vote and next week's verdict that could see him jailed. He says he's heading to Singapore for a checkup and will be back tomorrow, but that's definitely not the way to Singapore...

Happening right in front of our eyes

Ishiba gone by the end of next week?

Among the interesting pieces in TooLong005🗽 is @alonso-gd.bsky.social's great article, plus insights from several other experts, including an interview with Prof. @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social, conducted by Zac and I, on the weakening of the international order. 🌐 Make sure to pick up your copy!🗞️

I have an article coming up in this on “what drives anti-establishment feeling in Peru”. Be sure to get it an support the good folks at TLDR

This one simple trick could make Rachel Reeves' life so much easier. HS2? That's military spending. The entire NHS? Military spending. Welfare state? Military spending. Bridge from Scotland to Northern Ireland? Military spending.

It's not quite The Lord of the Rings or the Cornetto trilogy, but my latest video on Lula completes a trilogy of Latin American polling videos on TLDR Global: 🇧🇷 Why Lula's popularity is fading 🇲🇽 Why Claudia Sheinbaum is so popular 🇵🇪 Why Dina Boluarte is the world's most unpopular leader

Regime change at TLDR. Patriots are in control. Trust the plan.

So Pedro Sánchez is due to speak in 15mins after a bad bad day for him and his party. Place your bets, will it be: 1. Snap election 2. Resignation 3. Absolutely nothing

Starvation as Statecraft www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Exactly six months after Yoon's martial law attempt, South Korea elects Lee Jae-myung president. Probably not the outcome that Yoon intended.

I feel like the Labour leadership is once again overestimating the vote-winning potential of a PR blitz. When some combination of universities and either the social care system or the councils that fund it start collapsing on your watch, no one's gonna care that you got a few good headlines first.

I'm pretty sure there's a perfect correlation between the length of time that a papal conclave goes on and the frequency that journalists covering it talk about seagulls

World Central Kitchen has run out of food to serve in Gaza. Its bakery ("recently the last working bakery in Gaza") is out of flour. There are 100,000+ tons of food in staging areas within driving distance of Gaza, and Israel refuses to let them in wck.org/news/gaza-up...

So pretty disruptive day in Korean politics ahead of the election on June 3. Unexpectedly Lee Jae-myung’s acquittal in his Election Law violation case was overturned. Expectedly Han Duck-soo resigned as acting president. Quick breakdown ⬇️ 1/

There's a tendency in a *lot* of commentary to treat public opinion as immutable and unchangeable. Yet decades of political science research tells us that while there is lots of structure to public attitudes elite cues/signals and real and perceived conditions matter a whole lot.

TLDR EU is now ~500 subscribers away from 1,000,000 ❗️ If you're not already subscribed, YOU could be number one million - there's no prize but it's a pretty good claim to fame

If Labour want a 'republican front' à la 🇫🇷 2024 legislative election, they'd surely need to be looking at mutual candidate withdrawals/election pacts with left & centre parties, not just simply hope that progressive voters will return to Labour due to threat of Reform

In a unanimous decision, the Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon's impeachment. There will be a presidential election in 60 days.

BREAKING: Hungary says it will withdraw from the International Criminal Court as it hosts Netanyahu despite an international arrest warrant for the Israeli leader.

Paying journalists to be assistants to a machine for churning out press releases is the opposite of what journalism should be about

If 2024 was the year of incumbents losing, is 2025 the year of the incumbent comeback?

The fun thing about end to end encryption is that it sort of becomes irrelevant when you add the editor-in-chief of a major publication to your war planning group chat

Genuinely might be the funniest thing Trump has ever posted

Franz Kafka would have appreciated ICE’s justification of their Venezuelan deportations, writes @davidallengreen.bsky.social. A lack of evidence against an individual apparently “highlights the risk they pose”. www.prospectmagazine...

I completely agree with this analysis on the arrest of İmamoğlu, but I do wonder if Erdoğan had any hesitation given that he was also once the popular mayor of Istanbul, and his imprisonment in the 90s ultimately helped catapult him to the premiership/presidency

BREAKING: Philippines says former President Rodrigo Duterte has been arrested after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The "have you said thank you once?" White House doesn't seem to know that the only time NATO invoked Article 5 was in response to 9/11 and that more than 1,000 non-US troops subsequently died in Afghanistan

🚨 Just over 2 hours left to submit your questions: The UK Government is increasing defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP, alongside a cut to overseas development aid. What would you ask the UK Government about its defence spending boost? Let us know 👇 forms.gle/UWfhhZeboaQe...

checking in on the US

About 4 weeks ago Trump said he'd make an announcement within 4 weeks relating to Israeli annexation of the West Bank. With Smotrich now heading to the US, it seems today could be the day.

Genuinely don't know how Zelenskyy managed to maintain any composure during this exchange

PKK leader calls on Kurdish militant group to disarm, signalling start of fragile peace with Turkey

Sorry to get a bit 🔸Lib Dems Winning Here!🔸 on the timeline, but while Labour & Tories fixate on winning Reform-minded voters, this is the second consecutive poll with Lib Dems ticking up to 16%... something to keep an eye on