Since it's in the wind with the footage of the Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin: Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally. Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.

This morning, there has been significant air activity visible off the east and west coasts of Novaya Zemlya over a number of hours with Sentinel 3. Contrails from orbiting/maneuvering aircraft are clearly visible. I cannot say a Burevestnik test is occurring, but this is what I'd expect to see.

1/7 The Mig-31BM Foxhound in the picture published by @forsvarsmakten.se on the other place has tail nr Blue 67. According to my records, blue 67 has been used by two different Russian units:

Possibly related to continuing Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile trials?

Article on likely imminent test of Russia's Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, with a little contribution from me.

Must read on AI-generated satellite imagery, how to spot it and what to do.

1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.

This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.

1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:

Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.

This is a very good overview of the bases hit and their current role in Russian long-range aviation. It is particularly useful as the war has seen rather drastic changes in basing of different units, so if your standard-sources for this are from pre-2022, they are outdated. bsky.app/profile/lars...

I honestly struggle to come up with a historical comparison. Destroying strategic assets that difficult to impossible to replace has been done, daring special forces raids have been done, and striking airbases to great effect has been done, all of which are hard to do, but to combine all three?

FWIW the Russian MOD indeed reports a failed "terrorist" attack on a military air base in Amur oblast, i.e. Ukrainka.

1/10 On the map, clockwise from top (as we see it): Olenya, Murmansk oblast, Ivanovo-Severny, Ivanovo oblast, Ukrainka, Amur oblast, Belaya, Irkutsk oblast, Dyagilevo, Ryazan oblast. All of them except Ukrainka have reportedly been attacked today by Ukrainian small one-way attack UAS. 🧵

Thanks to a @threadinburgh.scot tipoff we had a morning trip to D/S Hestmanden and it was such a fascinating, absorbing experience, go see it before it leaves 🫡🇳🇴

1/6 Nice overview of upgrading of Russian military infrastructure in the North. I would add that in addition to the helicopter squadron, Severomorsk-2/Safonovo has reportedly been home to the Northern Fleet's 216th UAV Regiment since 2017. The regiment operates Forpost and Orlan-10 UAVs.

Kjetil Hatlebrekkes etterretningspris for 2025 tildeles førsteamanuensis ved FHS @larspederhaga.bsky.social Haga mottar prisen for «sitt arbeid med å utvikle etterretningsfaget etter etiske og tverrfaglige prinsipper og formidle etterretningsbasert innsikt til offentligheten». Vi gratulerer! 👏👏👏

1/2 Kirill Dmitriev is furthering the conspiracy theory-based idea that Russia and Trump fight the same imagined US "deep state".

Jeg setter stor pris på å ha blitt tildelt Kjetil Hatlebrekkes etterretningspris for 2025. Den så jeg ikke komme. www.linkedin.com/posts/kjetil...

This new Mearsheimer book in the store: Perfect illustration of the folly of most IR, esp. of him, & Rosato too. Obviously, states cannot think. They have no brain. All those Mearsheimer fans had better stop and THINK for a second, about this fact. Real social science starts from that insight!

Hørte akkurat denne. Anbefales.

1/5 Read the whole thread, but this reminds me of some of the basic tenets of Putinism. Liberal, democratic opposition is always synthetic - "colour revolutions" are engineered from abroad.

Mansplaining as an elicitation technique

Anyone here available to start a campaign to save @rferl.org.web.brid.gy ? Annual cost: less than 150 million. Why not a coalition of Europeans willing to chip in? Cc: @kajakallas.bsky.social @andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu @antoniolscosta.bsky.social @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu

1/10 Ukrainian one way attack drone strike on the 333d training centre of the Moscow Military District. This not just any training ground. 🧵

Really interesting thread on one soldier's observations during fighting in Kursk. - Force composition and equipment indicate Kursk was high priority for Ru - No Ru mechanized attack w/more than a reinforced platoon, all of them failed. More success w/infantry - Weather affects drone use (duh)

Nice shot.

Russia will not agree to a ceasefire. The proposal is Ukraine's (and maybe Rubio's) way to rightfully shift the blame for continued fighting onto the Russians. The gamble is on Trump's reaction to the Russian refusal.

you’re fired. wait you’re rehired. email us a list of things you’ve done today wait forget it you’re fired again. come back your job was important. you’re fired. or hired. come in to the office. wait the office has no computers go home. we are the department of government efficiency.

One of the most common arguments you hear from fans of generative ‘AI’ is that it’s not plagiarizing people’s work, it’s just learning like a human learns. So I’m going to break down why that’s just not true, and why it can never be true, with the existing systems. 1/

The recordings of this year's Air Power Conference, our flagship event, is now available. Scholars and practitioners met to discuss future command and control of Air Forces and operations. youtu.be/Krjyqnhh-hA?...

I kveld – på treårsdagen for fullskalainvasjonen – lanserte vi vår nye serie «Feltradioen», om forsvar og sikkerhet. Hør forsvarssjefen om situasjonen i Ukraina, det norske forsvaret og dronekrigen. Møt dronespesialisten Adrii fra U. Og Natalia fra Fritt Ukraina www.youtube.com/live/VaiHKIr...

And since then*, the fight in the air has been won in the electromagnetic spectrum. *OK, maybe only since the Battle of Britain.

Great thread.

QED (sort of). A Russian Air defense officer was just sentenced to two years and 10 months in an open penal colony after misidentifying and ordering the shootdown of a Mi-8 Hip helicopter over Crimea in October, killing the crew. (h/t @maks23.bsky.social)

Bor du i #Trondheim? Kom på foredrag om krigen i Ukraina på Litteraturhuset torsdag 16. januar kl 19:00! litteraturhusetitrondheim.no/program/stat...

To an asshole, all virtue is "virtue signaling."

The Russian thing to do now will be to charge and sentence the pantsir crew that shot down the Azerbaijani plane*, and then let them "redeem" themselves by volunteering for the "SMO". *If they can't be found, any Pantsir crew will do.

Good interview. Especially about the first phase. It is hard to overestimate how important the Ukrainian success in denying the Russians freedom in the air was for the course of the early fight: “If their aircraft had come here and worked freely, everything would have been completely different.”

Are these twenty millimeter or forty millimeter sparrows, sir?

OK, I'll take my chances at a charge of whataboutism: Remembering the Sokal and Grievance Studies hoaxes, I could not avoid noticing that every example of AI-generated gobbledygook papers featured in the thread are from the STEM fields.

Must read

Second clip that I am aware of with a "hunter-killer" pair of Ukrainian helicopters shooting down a Russian one-way attack drone. x.com/Lars_P_Haga/...

55.73862713921899, 37.210528249715345 I hear this spot is pretty well defended

This would have worked well for Norway during the Big Drone Scare in fall 2022

1/25)The Norwegian podcast @ukrainapodden.bsky.social dedicated to Russia's war against Ukraine, hosted by @torsae.bsky.social and @jsundhenriksen.bsky.social and where I have been a guest twice myself, is highly recommended if you understand Scandinavian. Thursday's cast was about F-16s for Ukraine

1/2 Not that you needed my insights on the NJ drone thing, but I wanted to add as someone who spent several years teaching astronomy to college students: the average person rarely looks up at the sky.

Call for Papers: we're seeking submissions for our NATO in the NORDICS conference in Oslo, 17/18 September 2025 Please check out the themes, submit your proposal, and share this call! sjms.nu/conference #CivMilSky