Using (multilevel) VAR models? Ever checked how well they actually fit your data? @jmbh.bsky.social & I created VARcheck, an R package for visual model checking for VAR models. Blogpost with workflow: bsiepe.github.io/blog/2026-05... 📝Paper: doi.org/10.31234/osf... 💻Docs: bsiepe.github.io/VARcheck/

🔥 Material life satisfaction increases willingness to engage in costly climate action @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, & I use causally informed regression models to estimate the effect of life satisfaction on climate action in a large Dutch sample (N = 22,749): osf.io/preprints/ps...

🚨 Climate change coverage in The Guardian In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 18,000 articles about climate change in @theguardian.com (2010-2025) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...

🚨 Techno-optimism reduces willingness to address climate change 🚨 In a new preprint, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @fdabl.bsky.social, and I examined the causal effect of techno-optimist beliefs on the willingness to contribute to addressing climate change. 🔗 Read the paper: lnkd.in/eE847_jK

📢 Call for Papers: We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.

🌟📝 Just out in World Psychiatry: Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data. If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition. eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...

Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...

🚨Model Checking for Vector Autoregressive Models 🚨 In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...

🚨 Mapping climate change coverage In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...

We are beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change! Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change. More info: acscc.nl

🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵 🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv

We built the openESM database: ▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place ▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software ▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python Find out more: 🌐 openesmdata.org 📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...

Happy to share that our large-scale network analysis is now out in @nathumbehav.nature.com We show that networks are often supported by too little evidence from the data for results to be reported with confidence, not meaning that results are flawed but rather suggests caution in interpretation.

Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.

Experts with theoretical traditions, researchers experienced in approaches to theory construction, educators and policymakers work on the first steps toward creating a mature subfield of theoretical psychology. bit.ly/4nLOWoE @annemscheel.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social

Are climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned? We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer

“States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an outcome with irreversible consequences for our shared humanity”

What a show on the last day of ACSCC 2025 where our brilliant participants presented the culmination of their week-long collaborations. Buckle up for today’s highlights👇

Time flies and we are already halfway through ACSCC! Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.

The second day of ACSCC was again full of inspiring lectures and discussions! Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.

The second edition of ACSCC is officially underway! We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️

We are very excited about the line-up of speakers for ACSCC, which kicks off next week! The following talks can also be followed online: Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9 Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302

How can Multilevel Hidden Markov Models help uncover personalized dynamics? Find out in the post-conference session on May 29 with Emmeke Aarts (Utrecht University), Jonas Haslbeck (University of Amsterdam), and Pepijn Vink (Utrecht University)! @jmbh.bsky.social

1/3 Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with: - Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding - Models to get some first insights - Further reading boxes for more advanced topics - Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data

New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)

🚨 New preprint! 🚨 We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps... This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇

Are psychometric networks sufficiently supported by data such that one can be confident when interpreting its results? We analysed 294 psychometric networks from 126 papers with the Bayesian approach to address this question @jmbh.bsky.social Sara Ruth van Holst @maartenmarsman.bsky.social 🧵

🔍 Speaker Spotlight: Tim Lenton We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future. ⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl

Speaker Spotlight: Vítor V. Vasconcelos What is complexity? Vítor will kick off ACSCC with a primer on complex systems. He’s an Assistant Professor at UvA, co-leads POLDER, and works on collective behavior and unintended consequences in social systems. ⏳ Final days to apply at acscc.nl

⏳ 10 days left to apply! ⏳ There are only 10 days left to apply for @acscc.bsky.social hosted at @iasamsterdam.bsky.social! Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate people on challenges related to climate change: acscc.nl

Emotions are reactions to situations we encounter in daily life. In our new paper in Psych Review (psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...; with @oisinryan.bsky.social and @fdabl.bsky.social), we take a first step towards building a generative model for emotion dynamics based on this simple principle 1/4

This is a collaborative effort with amazing colleagues: Lourens Waldorp, Nikola Sekulovski, and @jmbh.bsky.social. 🙌 Thanks to this team for their hard work in advancing Bayesian methods in network analysis!

How are climate activist groups @fridaysforfuture.bsky.social and @letztegeneration.bsky.social portrayed in the media? We used ChatGPT and frequency analysis on all news articles in major German newspapers to answer this question. @jmbh.bsky.social Updated preprint: osf.io/preprints/ps...

We have an opening for a PhD on creating simulation models guiding the selection of treatments for mental disorders at the University of Amsterdam with the NSMD consortium: www.academictransfer.com/en/347555/ph...

Climate action paper published! 🎉 In a large survey, we found that climate researchers engage in much more advocacy and activism than non-climate researchers. The difference in lifestyle changes was considerably smaller. www.nature.com/articles/s44... @maiensachis.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social

Our long didactic paper on #network analysis, written with many of the amazing scientists that work in the field is finally out in IJMPR and open access ! It was a long and collaborative effort two years in the making, but, it was worth it! Please repost onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Eager to tackle challenges related to climate change? Then apply for the upcoming Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change (ACSCC), hosted by the Institute for Advanced Study, which brings together early-career researchers from all disciplines and non-academic stakeholders. Website: acscc.nl