🚨Model Checking for Vector Autoregressive Models 🚨 In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...

From my master’s thesis to my first PhD project — excited to share that this work (together with @jordanrvl.bsky.social, @ginettelafit.bsky.social, Anja Franziska Ernst, Josip Razum, Eva Ceulemans, and @bringmannlaura.bsky.social) is now published in AMPPS! Link: doi.org/10.1177/2515...

Simulation studies have a conflict of interest problem. The same team: - develops a new method - designs a simulation study to evaluate it However, the new method has to show good performance to get published. We propose living synthetic benchmarks to address the issue (doi.org/10.48550/arX...).

We built the openESM database: ▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place ▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software ▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python Find out more: 🌐 openesmdata.org 📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...

🚨 New preprint: We compared 13 methods for detecting momentary careless responding in the WARN-D data (206k+ obs.). Tutorials guide you through each method. The takeaway? Diverging results, inherent subjectivity (to varying degrees), and a clear need for further validation. osf.io/preprints/ps...

Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.

Help us show there is support for offering registered reports at one of Psychology's leading method's journal! chng.it/TwwnVBScVb

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: evidence from 350,757 flips. That's the title of our paper summarizing ~650 hours of coin-tossing experimentation just published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association. doi.org/10.1080/0162...

New paper by @bsiepe.bsky.social & WARN-D team out now in JoPACS, on the (lack of) relation between EMA selfreport and Garmin passive data. Guardian @theguardian.com coverage: www.theguardian.com/technology/2... Paper: psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d... 🧪 #PsychSciSky #StatsSky #EpiSky

How Accurate & Consistent are Self-Report responses via Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) in Ecological Momentary Assessment & Digital Studies? Examined in a massive EMA study (N = 3,761), our new #OpenAccess piece on this is just out: online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art... #PsychSciSky #AcademicSky 🧵:

I'm excited that our preregistration template for simulation studies is now available on OSF! See below for a brief interview with the Center for Open Science about the template and why we created it..

1/2 Press release @unileiden.bsky.social about our upcoming JoPACS paper led by @bsiepe.bsky.social, showing that the overlap of similar constructs assessed via wearable vs EMA data is surprisingly low (n~850, 3 months). www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2025...

I'm very happy to see meta-science on methods research getting more attention in the form of a great new call for papers! I recently gave some talks on the existing literature on the quality and transparency of sim studies & ideas for future improvement. Slides: bsiepe.github.io/talks/2025-0...

Today, my first R-package was released on CRAN. 🎉 You can use it to analyze interval responses collected via dual range slider scales. Thank you to my colleague @bsiepe.bsky.social for being such an enthusiastic co-author. cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

Self-control in daily life is more than willpower — but how well do commonly used trait scales capture this recent, broader view on self-control? New preprint with @kaihorstmann.bsky.social & @mhennecke.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/ps... Short summary below.

🚀Postdoc position @unimarburg.bsky.social in the project: "Bridging the Gap Between Verbal Psychological Theories & Formal Statistical Modeling with Large Language Models" (funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de) 📅Start: 01.10.2025 | ⏳4 years 🔗 Apply now: uni-marburg.de/jhbCen 🔄 Thanks for sharing!

🚀 PhD Position in Psychological Methods at @unimarburg.bsky.social 📅 Start: 01.10.2025 | 💼 50% TV-H E13 | ⏳ 3 years Focus on statistical modeling—Bayesian statistics, cognitive modeling, psychometrics. 🔗 Apply now: uni-marburg.de/r5dKTr 🔄 Thanks for sharing!

Can we use features of dynamic networks (e.g. centrality) to improve treatment selection and outcome prediction? New preprint on the topic: We highlight the role of uncertainty & introduce a Bayesian multilevel approach for uncertainty quantification of network features 🧵 osf.io/preprints/ps...

Can't wait for June 5th! Spending an entire day talking about meta-science with fellow young researchers is one of my favorite things to do Join us! The more the merrier 🚀

Are you doing EMA research and wonder how to go about it? In recent work we've adressed some open questions and challenges, here is a brief summary of papers and materials. 🧵 #PsychSciSky 🧪 #StatsSky

New preprint from our team. We reflect on the usage of VAR-based person-specific temporal networks with a key question: do we have sufficiently long time-series to estimate a VAR model without overfitting the data? Say no to models that "find meanings in random patterns". osf.io/preprints/os...

Excited to share that my first PhD paper got published! We explored the effects of correctly vs. failing to model true interactions in data. Can model misspecification lead to reversed conclusions? Which model generalizes better to a larger sample? Read the article here: doi.org/10.3758/s134...

1/3 Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with: - Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding - Models to get some first insights - Further reading boxes for more advanced topics - Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data

How Accurate & Consistent are Self-Report responses via Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) in Ecological Momentary Assessment & Digital Studies? Examined in a large EMA study (N = 3,761) w/L. Cloos @bsiepe.bsky.social @marilynpicciri1.bsky.social @eikofried.bsky.social @shirleybwang.bsky.social ... 🧵:

🏰 PhD position on computational modelling | collective dynamics | cultural evolution 🏰 Get in touch with any questions you might have and join me in beautiful Marburg! stellenangebote.uni-marburg.de/jobposting/c... (Deutsch) stellenangebote.uni-marburg.de/jobposting/3... (English)

We have an opening for a PhD on creating simulation models guiding the selection of treatments for mental disorders at the University of Amsterdam with the NSMD consortium: www.academictransfer.com/en/347555/ph...

We (matzekloft.bsky.social, Semih Aktepe, @danielheck.bsky.social) recently participated in a robustness reproduction of articles in Nature Human Behaviour. It was a nice learning experience to check the reproducibility of others' code and to think about useful additional robustness analyses

Simulation studies are essential for methods research. How well are they conducted & reported? How can we improve their quality? Out now in Psychological Methods, see 🧵 below. With @fbartos.bsky.social, @timpmorris.bsky.social, @boulesteixlaure.bsky.social, @danielheck.bsky.social & Samuel Pawel

Amazing to see so many early career folks who care deeply about improving measurement of intensive longitudinal data #LorMITNB

With all the new people on here (hi!), a delayed summary of our paper on Bayesian estimation and comparison of n=1 gVAR/network models, recently published in PsychMethods: How can we understand whether differences in these popular, but highly parameterized models reflect more than just noise? 🧵

New preprint together with @bsiepe.bsky.social and @danielheck.bsky.social. We propose a model to estimate consensus intervals from interval ratings: doi.org/10.31234/osf...

Starter pack for EMA, ESM, and Intensive Longitudinal Researchers. Feel free to share, follow, and nominate. Suggestions welcome! go.bsky.app/LzqJoUX #ESM #EMA #AA #IntensiveLongitudinalResearch

This is hands down my favourite issue (now known as 'collection') of any journal ever. I love the 12 meta-scientific papers. So happy that @boulesteixlaure.bsky.social masterminded it. A thread of some personal highlights 👇 1/ doi.org/10.1002/bimj.202400031

Have you run #simulation studies and encountered issues with missing results, failure, or non-convergence? In a new preprint by S. Pawel, F. Bartoš, me & A. Lohmann, we overview different approaches to address these issues and review current practices. arxiv.org/abs/2409.18527 #stats

I made an attempt at a bsky psychometrics starter pack with people who work on or largely with psychometric tools! Please reskeet and (selfl!)nominate to help me fill my many and varied blind spots and make this a useful and balanced resource #rstats #psychometrics go.bsky.app/6oGLp7D

New preprint by @bsiepe.bsky.social & our WARN-D lab. We collected information on sleep, tiredness & stress with both EMA and sensor data, and try to find out to which degree these are associated contemporaneously in a large dataset (n~800) with many timepoints (t~360). Brief 🧵

New paper by my PhD student @matzekloft.bsky.social now published in Behavior Research Methods (open access)🥳 Measuring the variability of personality traits with interval responses: Psychometric properties of the dual-range slider response format doi.org/10.3758/s134...

Error checking is an important service to science, but it doesn't pay the bills. But what if it did? Introducing ERROR, a bug bounty program for science to systematically detect and report errors in academic publications error.reviews

New preprint w/ the WARN-D team (incl. @eikofried.bsky.social @rayyantutunji.bsky.social, @aljoscharimpler.bsky.social & others): We explain our exploration of EMA items in data of ~600 individuals. We investigate distributions/changes over time/context/interindividual differences & more

1/4 FRED is online, our open source software to provide feedback to participants in EMA studies. We (led by @aljoscharimpler.bsky.social) programmed the software to provide feedback at scale to our ~2000 WARN-D participants. Hope it will be useful to researchers & clinicians alike! Details below.

 We argue that there is a replication crisis in methodological research, see this magazine style paper for an overview: rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.... 2/4

Here is your regular service announcement that making data analyses reproducible is hard (mostly because your past self doesn't reply to emails). Here is our suggestion how to make your R scripts reproducible for your future self and others: www.mdpi.com/2624-8611/3/...

Enter the dynamic network/GIMME multiverse: ❓What happens when we slightly change (mostly arbitrary) modeling parameters? ❗(Sub-)group results remain robust, individual results may differ more strongly ➡️Use multiverse to explore robustness of data-driven time series modeling techniques osf.io/etm3u

1/ @craiganthonyrs.bsky.social and I wrote this for the "the Behavior Therapist" SI on harms of CBTs. We discuss the ABCT Apology on "conversion therapy" and ensuing debate. Our aim is NOT to create drama, but use this as a case study on apologies and allyship t.co/Kr8nWTUX35

We reviewed 100 psych. simulation studies & find room for improvement in planning/reporting. As a remedy, we (František Bartoš, @timpmorris.bsky.social Anne-Laure Boulesteix, @danielheck.bsky.social & Samuel Pawel) present ADEMP-PreReg, a simulation study preregistration & reporting template 🧵/1

Beautiful work and tools for studying complex systems like the brain! nature.com/articles/s43... (not sure if authors yet on bluesky)