Turns out tax tapas is not quite as appetising as Reeves was imagining *shocked face*

Has anyone tried turning the government off and back on again?

Are we at the countdown phase yet? What vegetable will Starmer or Reeves need to outlast?

Are we at the countdown phase yet? What vegetable will Starmer or Reeves need to outlast?

Those nice blogs about tax reform can go back in the filing cabinet now.

Gilts sell off heavily at market open. 📉 Long gilt futures drop over 100 ticks. Long-dated yields rise by 10-13 bps

Aaaaaand gilt market hates it

Good read and thoughtful push back on thesis that "everyone is doing better economically, its just the vibes that are off" via a thorough accounting of housing costs

Could you imagine if the US gets $2k stimulus checks and the new Fed chair lowers rates regardless

😬😬😬

Younger me would have taken a close look at this. Albert O. Hirschman Postdoc Program (Berlin / Kiel), a new offer by the Kiel Institute. econjobmarket.org/positions/12...

We’ve joined @cpaguk.bsky.social & 100+ others in calling for the government to fully scrap the two-child limit. Every child deserves the best start in life. By fully scrapping the two-child limit the government can deliver a decisive shift in children’s opportunities, and in the UK's potential.

True. The fact that there are busloads of tourists in Stratford shows that culture is big business. Not supporting it isn't merely philistine; it's also bad economics.

I love using the my pin to load my saved password to trigger 2 factor-authentication to do like the most basic, harmless stuff in existence. Feel like I'm incrasingly spending more of my time just logging on to things rather than doing anything.

🚀 I'm on the #EconSky Job Market! My JMP asks a classic question: Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation? To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont. A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)

Is there a raya chant? There really should be Cc @arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social @tim-stillman.bsky.social @poorlydrawnarsenal.com

This really is poorly thought through. If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts. And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs. on.ft.com/4oxpaFs

Traders are increasingly turning to US interest-rate futures where they are wagering on changes between repo rates and the federal funds rate as money-market stress persists. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...?

Banks tap Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility in record numbers amid month-end pressures. Via Reuters

M83 got the sax back on the map with Midnight City, it was a bummer this song wasn’t bigger because shredder solos deserved another moment.

YIMBYism in the Jacobin. You love to see it.

Today in credit debates - WTF is happening with the OAS and Swap spread wedge in US IG corporates. The Tl;dr is that OAS, which measures the additional yield you get on corporate debt over a similar duration government bond, is much lower than the yield pick-up over a floating-rate curve (swaps).

There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5

This is a great read

We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets ....but that's been waning ..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...

It's increasingly obvious that Labour's strategy - call it Starmerism, Blue Labour, whatever - has got it badly wrong. It has alienated the party's core vote while failing to win over those leaning to Reform. There was no shortage of people warning them they were getting it wrong either.

Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)

📢 #CallforPapers for the ISEG Lisbon Urban and Public Economics Mini Workshop on Housing 🇵🇹 🗓️February 26 and 27, 2026 More information👇 Please RT #EconSky

Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)

SNAP isn't about "people who don't work." It's about people who don't get paid enough to live. Of the 40 or so million people who rely on food stamps: * Two-thirds are children, seniors, or disabled * Most working-age adults who receive SNAP are employed—but in jobs that pay poverty wages

It's still early but when we compare current earnings season (156 reports tracked in our data) to where things were at with that many reports during prior earnings seasons, this is the third-strongest EPS beat rate on record and strongest revenue beat rate. Just incredibly strong versus estimates.

Total federal spending is up +7% in 2025 over 2024 year-to-date to Oct 20. The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere. Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.

Taking Reform UK seriously *and* literally. on.ft.com/4qGxq7B

it feels so hard to explain to people that "doing very wrong things policy-wose" has way less of an impact on the day to day macro numbers than like "pause for a couple months" did during the pandemic

It's true to say that credit card delinquency rates are high versus recent history, but also true to say that the rate of deterioration is slowing. And higher twitch card issuer data suggests things are meaningfully improving in terms of charge-offs and delinquencies.

🚨 Why has US jobs growth been so anaemic? Parsing Goldman's latest paper, and taking the opportunity to wrap in the Dallas Fed's scary blog. on.ft.com/48COxQY

Bill Nelson says it's time for the Fed to restart open market operations

Friedrich Merz is testing Germany’s patience - on.ft.com/4o24Dsn via @FT

biden the commodities trader, trump the fx trader

Argentine peso weakens to fresh low despite US intervention on.ft.com/48FKy6a

Gotta love science.

Really enjoying this one this morning ra.co/podcast/1028

Interesting read on finance and technology: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...

@orbinho.bsky.social been hearing this take and on an eyeball test I agree, but I wonder if there's a simple statistic or way of quantifying this? Non-Gyökeres goals when he is in is probably a bit too simple. Do data collectors have info on when players are double marked or how close defenders are?