NY Fed finds households ramping up spending plans: "The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending increased to 4.9 percent in December from 4.1 percent in August and 4.6 percent in December 2024."

Good thread here on financial dimensions of US-EU tensions

"Capital flowed to high-inflation countries during recent surge, worsening the output-inflation tradeoff. Reversing flows would have reduced volatility & tightening needs." New paper by Coulibaly & Bengui: www.restud.com/destabilizin... #REStud #EconSky

A good read on government debt and monetary policy: www.ft.com/content/25d3...

Submission deadline for the Philadelphia Fed's Mortgage Market Research Conference is January 20th. Details here: bit.ly/4mT9Ocz

Trump says he wants Fed chair contender Hassett to stay in White House job - www.ft.com/content/ef71... via @FT

Great thread on japan's fiscal position

Zubi was a steal

@abenewman.bsky.social is right. There is an alternative. as.ft.com/r/7b8f914c-f...

And here we are: the entire transatlantic alliance is now talking about Greenland, instead of talking about ending the war in Ukraine.

Everyone thinks their policy is good and their opposition's policy is bad. The whole point of institutions is to keep the nation state more stable than if we were ruled by proclamations & whims alone.

1970s-style debt crisis update – UK borrowing costs fall to lowest in more than a year www.ft.com/content/0574...

pouring yet another one out for the 'UK needs an IMF bailout' crew

Good summary here

I was 20 when HS2 was announced. Great to know i’ll probably be in my late 60s when the Birmingham-Manchester section starts work let alone finishes. Seems like a country doing things the right way!

“.. The bottom line is that Trump’s push for Fed compliance ironically may lead to *more* Fed independence. .. Trump’s appointee.. may be less able to forge a consensus around his or her views than past Fed chairs have been—giving Trump less control over the Fed’s actions than Trump may anticipate.”

Worth being clear about how this works: the President browbeats the Fed. His functionaries at ostensibly independent agencies act accordingly. POTUS has plausible deniability while the US Attorney "plans to forge ahead." Similar playbook to James and Comey indictments and Schiff investigation.

Wild reporting from Bloomberg. Jeanine Pirro apparently freelanced the subpoenas and criminal investigation of Jerome Powell.

This song is heart wrenching every time

Do we mandatory report this to state regulatory authorities? It’s a minor.

So do we think Trump knows what countries he just tariffed?

UK pushes up a law criminalizing deepfake nudes in response to Grok

Joint statement from former Fed chairs, Treasury secretaries, and CEA chairs under both parties jointstatement.substack.com/p/statement-...

For the Fed, it’s one battle after another

Whoa. Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s... via @FederalReserve

Almost exactly in line with research estimates of QE of 5-10 bps per $100 bn.

...vaccinated, but fully 0.12%/year higher. And the presumption has to be that there are an extra 6.5 19-64 year-olds who die from something else that they would have successfully fought off, had they gotten vaccinated and so had suffered under less of a metabolic burden from fighting COVID… 2/

Sending thousands of armed, masked, armored federal agents to our community makes us less safe. Makes us unable to live free. bsky.app/profile/eric...

Wait, so fannie and fredie are doing large scale asset purchases at the presidents direction now?

The EU really knows how to hide its light under a bushel. It has just passed the world's biggest trade deal (with Mercosur) - using a written procedure among ambassadors, making the public barely notices a huge strategic step forward for Europe. Contrast with Trump's made-for-TV signing ceremonies.

The cafe I'm working in this morning is playing a jazzy, brassy cover of NIN closer compete with scat vocals and solos. I've really never been so confused

I woke up to see the news. I am aghast. I can't believe the FIFA peace prize has been disrespected like this. Is nothing sacred anymore?

I’ve spent this morning morbidly watching the MTV channels close down and the final songs played were: MTV Music - Video Killed the Radio Star (Buggles) Club MTV - Don’t Stop the Music (Rihanna) MTV 90s - Goodbye (Spice Girls) MTV 80s - Together in Electric Dreams (Oakey and Moroder)

Leandro Trossard has the most goal contributions in all competitions for Arsenal this season - six assists and seven goals. #ARSAST

That was fun

Searching (fruitlessly, for something else in) the IMF's Oct GFSR, I can see why this chart gives them the heebie-jeebies. UST mkt has flunked both its last two tests as global risk-free asset. www.imf.org/-/media/file...

Favorite books of the year

Favorite books of the year

Chopped and screwed music in the airport after a blues rock band is the most Austin thing ever

2025 IN MARKETS* 📈📉📈🧵 1. People came into the year pretty bullish on US stocks and $ (because Trump) US stocks soar more than 20% for second year in a row www.ft.com/content/b413... Dollar surges against euro and sterling www.ft.com/content/e572... *focusing on big markets in US and Europe

Big banks are getting their sweet revenge on private credit as the Trump administration dials back regulatory restrictions. Read more: bloom.bg/3MSnBUB 📷: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

For all its faults and changes, Austin remains awesome. If only it had public transit, it would be undefeated

The guy who put a 19 year old named Big Balls in charge of gutting key government services: “experience matters when lives are at stake”