As of July 19th update, the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature is now more than 3.7 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean. With the warming just getting started, this El Nino is still in charted territory, but just barely.

Fair play to John Healey, who managed to time his 5.5-week break from government to coincide exactly with the World Cup

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE ***THURSDAY***

FFS - The Times used to be a vaguely serious paper. (Chart shows 5 days of movement on ten year gilts).

This video of a woman telling an anti-abortion asshole to, "Shut the fuck up" is exactly what I needed to see on a Monday morning

Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to be more circumspect in communicating, believing more explicit guidance has raised complacency in markets. But Warsh's shift comes at an awkward time. FT Big Read here by @senojerialc.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @kateduguid.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/a02a...

The proposals aren't about "controlling immigration", "rewarding contribution", or encouraging integration. Burnham and Labour have opportunity to - belatedly - reject the ethnonationalist remigration agenda of Reform/Conservatives. They need to take it. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

What a goal

🚨What happens after the Bank of England has declared balance-sheet victory? www.ft.com/content/38a4...

Or much of a drop in public support. Fascinating example of elite consensus switching despite popular opinion.

Had to dig out a 6 year old project, an absolute mess from an earlier life, going insane trying to resolve ancient coding and data issues and finally, after wayyy too much work and time, I got it

What a graphic. @cnn.com #$NVDA #$TSLA #$AEO

Rereading (and finding some new) literature on SVB and the 2023 US banking turmoil. If you've got any favorite bits of analysis I might have missed from that episode, drop em in the comments.

Been a while since I went camping

gonna start talking like this to my boss

England up 1 deciding to sit back and do nothing with 9 in the box for a half hour against Argentina in the World Cup

Hate this

England defending. Who would have thought

Interesting read on taxes hospitality and tips in the UK

It's funny, having read Rawls much before doing economics I'm only now making some of the obvious connections. Ofc it all goes back to John von Neumann. Insane how influential he was.

The idea that pursuing a restrictionist/illiberal migration policy makes you 'rightwing' economically and therefore more likely to be a fiscal conservative is just such a basic fail on every level.

The social media bans for kids are pathetic. Please just regulate social media companies like a responsible government should.

It's a joke, but a binface win would likely be the end of Farage. Given how much everyone claims to want that, they should be taking it seriously & doing everything possible to make it happen. It would also be the absolute triumph of a uniquely british spirit to defeat fascism via bit.

What a time to be alive www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...

Count Binface winning in Clacton

Some useful resources

If you're thinking about getting involved in Clacton, it's just under 90mins by train from London Liverpool Street - Canvassing for Binface? - Canvassing against Reform? - Getting voters registered, with ID - In case you're thinking about "What did you do in the war to defeat fascism, daddy?"

The queen doth protest too much imo

I mean, fine. Until they have to.

The gap between the support lower income private renters can get & market rents reached 21% in May. It's approaching the record gap of 23% when support was last increased, but the government currently has no plans to increase support until at least 2030.

Our poor performance in goods since 2019 is a UK-specific problem. Between 2019 and 2024, the UK slipped from the world’s 11th-largest goods exporter to 14th. Since 2018, UK goods export volumes have fallen by more than any other G7 member. Read how we can regain our trading edge: buff.ly/yjP7R6Z

hello all!! Big Drop Today we are launching a manifesto for our framework for the next US supply-side economic consensus -- The Productive State -- at Forces of Production www.forcesofproduction.com/p/the-produc...

I mean this is absolutely true but also: there’s now a crisis and not using AC kills tens of thousands of Europeans per year, so the question becomes should Europe adapt or sacrifice Nonna, Abuelo, Tante, or Onkel on the alter of “we didn’t used to need this”.

Under-13 is a much more sensible limit than under-16. But Estonia are right. This is a sticking plaster, a big bang proposal meant to dodge accountability for actually taking action against predatory platforms and their impact on *all* users, not just children. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Employers pushed staff to use AI more. That has backfired ft.trib.al/tsFW1Gq

The movie holds up. As does this great anecdote courtesy of Sam Neill and Jeff Goldblum.

Noni Madueke leads all players in the World Cup for open play xA. This is based on the value the pass end location, he ranks 9th for the total xG assisted by his open play key passes.

Bill Nelson on Warsh and forward guidance

Waller going after the doves with a steel chair. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

"ACAB includes Paw Patrol but none of you are ready for that conversation," and other things I've said to avoid ever being asked to babysit.

This is the best cereal ever made in the history of mankind. That it only costs $9 is what the American dream is about.

Nice visual summary here

My post unpacks a dense yet straightforward paragraph in minutes (below) into: Scenario A: Inflation improves soon, then hold rates and maybe eventually cut. Scenario B: Sticky inflation and a stable labor market, then some hikes.

Home Office floating "compromise" on "earned settlement" reforms - settlement/ILR after 5 years, but no access to benefits until 10 years. Some thoughts..(1/4) www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Bank of England hit by internal divisions over shake-up - www.ft.com/content/fe18... via @FT

"One of the great benefits of devolution and independence is that it gets rid of one of the most insidious obstacles to development – that of “having someone else to blame”. " - excellent by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social:

Fascinating data analysis on rise of mental health illness by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com Leads up to a banger of a chart, but tweeting it out risks stripping it of thoughtfulness and nuance. So here’s just a hard data one: hospital admissions for young women self-harming www.ft.com/content/063b...

I'm not even joking when I say that, as a former writing teacher, I think even the act of bullshitting through a 10-page paper on a book you only skimmed is also incredibly valuable learning.