When fertiliser becomes scarce, wages, crop prices, and production choices adjust, partly cushioning the yield losses. Applying the same framework to a severe fertiliser disruption through the Strait of Hormuz suggests smaller, but still meaningful, effects.

#GR #basketball Ο πρωταθλητής Ευρώπης επιβεβαιώνει στους ελληνικούς τελικούς τα σχόλια όλης της μπασκετικής Ευρώπης βλέπω.

The impact of the USAID shutdown on Africa, as seen from space and on the ground. M. Nicolini and I study the effects of the aid cuts by linking GODAD data on USAID projects to satellite-based measures of economic activity and IPC food insecurity indicators. 👉 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 1/11

The U.S. strategy to win the World Cup, ban opposing players. www.politico.eu/article/swit...

✨ We are hiring @crestumr.bsky.social ✨ Post-doc position, up to 3 years, in a Horizon project. Profile: at the intersection of NLP & Social Sciences. More information here: shorturl.at/TxDLN 🥰 RT appreciated 🥰

it is concerning how addicting this game is 82-0.com

“If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter.” Justice Brett Kavanaugh www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...

Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams? A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brüderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. —> doi.org/10.31222/osf...

Looking forward to hosting this workshop on Organised Crime: Local Roots and Global Reach on 10 June. If you would like to attend in person, email me at [email protected] Places are limited. You can also join Zoom, in this link essex-university.zoom.us/webinar/regi... #OrganisedCrime

ISW had an interesting long report the other day "Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war…Russian battlefield gains are approaching net zero, while Ukrainian forces are setting conditions potentially to break out of positional warfare"

I've been too out of tune with the relevant forums for a very long time, yet I'm wondering if anyone has made an AI tournament using CM 01/02. The game's available as freeware (I think). There's a cult following, it's text based and it's about balancing long Vs short term strategic concerns.

🔗 This is part of the "Your Tax Dollars At Work" series on federally funded research that sounded ridiculous but generated enormous returns. Full series archive: bioniclab.substack.com/notes #YourTaxDollarsAtWork

We show that politicians' perceptual errors are primarily an expression of "midpoint hedging", a well-known cognitive quirk, leading them to skew their estimations towards 50% even when real public opinion is far from being evenly split. Hedging accounts for two thirds (!) of politicians' errors./2

Vermeer’s Girl With The Pearl Earring will be shown in Osaka, later this year, and the press conference was as Japanese as you’d expect #Vermeer

So I read the article: 1. This happened in 1965 (for context, Henrietta Lacks cells were taken in 1950) 2. There were 31 children apart of this unethical trial, of which almost all were low income and Black. 3. The families didn't find out until 2023 when a magazine investigated the RSV vaccine

Stepfun is providing gguf's, instructions and benchmarks for enthusiast devices (DGX, Strix Halo, 128+ Mac Studio) for their latest model. I'm not sure how the economics work long term, but hopefully there is eventually a sustainable market for local models.

The Spurs@OKC game 7 is going to be well worth watching.

I'd rather have Sonnet 4.7 than Opus 4.8. However good 4.8 is, the limits are going to be so tight that it's rarely worth using it.

It's fortunate that there isn't a major world sports event scheduled to take place in the US this year in Atlanta, Boston, LA, NY/NJ, SF and Philadelphia.

I know I'm very late to the party, but I finally had a chance to test Qwen 3 Next 80B3A. Fast (55tk/s), correct answer on an easy-but-not-too-easy task. Helped with a couple clarifications that would have taken me 30' to search the documentation. I wish we had more models in the 50-80B range.

As its said many times. When people start talking about alignment You should ask "Alignment to who?"

A livestream of a volcano in the Philippines captured a meteor crashing to Earth today. What are the odds? Mayon Volcano, Location: Albay, Luzon, Philippines

I fear that the impact on the fertilisers may not have been adequately considered.

Good piece on how the war in Iran is having effects across the world from rickshaw drivers in Sri Lanka cutting back on meals to a manufacturer in Japan halting the production of crisps. And big worries about fertiliser - 30% of world supplies go via the Strait www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

‘Malawi has exhausted its strategic fuel reserves and is selling part of its gold holdings to raise foreign currency, as the economic shockwaves from the Iran conflict deepen an existing fuel crisis in one of Africa’s poorest countries.’ www.ft.com/content/273a...

Me checking out Fedora 44. Thank the atomic distros, rpm-ostree rollback --reboot and we will revisit this once they have ironed out the kinks. Till then, I have work to do.

"One leaked message sets out one of the goals of this kind of information warfare: helping Russia “maintain the image of a superpower” on the world stage." For reasons I cannot describe the following excerpt came to mind.

Tech companies like Microsoft shared the names of European civil servants and scholars with U.S. Senate Committee that investigates “Internet censorship”. A powerful reminder that the U.S. tech companies are active collaborators of Trump’s authoritarian administration!

Reptiles with longer Wikipedia pages tend to be bigger. The relationship is a power law with exponent = 0.85. I guess humans really like writing about big lizards? The longest article is the Komodo Dragon.

We have records of diabetes diagnoses going back 2,500 years. We only developed a reliable treatment (insulin) 100 years ago. Now we might have a cure. What an amazing thing to get to witness.

A TL cleanser: Here’s BobDylan looking dapper as always.

Are really people just now discovering that in some fields –in particular those organised around labs– not every author contributes equally to the paper? Have they not heard about the CRediT author statements before?

There's the occasional post by academics outraged at something someone said that the OP WOULD NEVER CONTEMPLATE and if you think about it, it boils down to differences between fields and the never_contemplated_thingy is actually reasonable or at least debatable in specific cases.

"If every 16 to 24-year-old could enrol in a college, like they can in higher education, with funding guaranteed, the Neet numbers would immediately drop" I mean, sure one could pay to hide unemployed youth in the official statistics, but is simply dropping the rate the ultimate goal here?

By running the family textile mill to finance the revolution, Engels may have been the original effective altruist

Measuring and testing theories empirically in social sciences is far from perfect and fraught problems. It's also far superior to the alternative of asserting that whatever ideas one finds intuitive/desirable are valid and how we should go on thinking about the world.

This is entirely warranted and justified. And I really don’t want to see anyone complain this is a result of antisemitic double standards from the ICC, which also issued a warrant for Yahya Sinwar. One legacy of the Shoah is that international law matters. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

Hm, 10 years ago. That's 2016. What could have taken place in 2016?

this is not actual analysis but you could probably argue that The Question of the second half of the 21st century is who can learn to hate African immigrants less: the US, the EU or China

I've lost count how many times I've watched this clip and I'm still amazed at the breadth of topics it covers in some depth. www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_d...

I had an elaborate data extraction pipeline planned. Claude accidentally* destroyed it by demonstrating that a rather complicated regex is just as good and way, way, faster. *It didn't come up in adversarial review, but he used regex to verify the validity of the first step in a trial run.

Quick Eurovision 2026 remarks: 🇭🇷 sent the witches of Dathomir (laudatory). I was wondering who'd be this year's metal entry till I saw 🇷🇸 🇦🇹 in a club is 🔥 🇫🇷 and 🇫🇮 will be jury darlings. 🇲🇩 Is a guilty pleasure. 🇬🇷 Is a_lot but also 🔥 in a club. 🇩🇰 Is the one that I like the most, hence it's doomed.

I've heard suggestions that papers based on private datasets will be at a premium since public datasets are easy to mine using agents. Accepting the premise for a moment, what does that imply for hiring, tenure and the production of research?

The tldr version in two pictures. MCs come from elite and unrepresentative families. Across 130+ years, the gap between MC fathers and tightly-matched controls has grown, absolutely not shrunk. Whatever opened up about American politics, it wasn’t who gets to Congress.

Do institutional reforms change selection? DDD designs with 4 Progressive-era reforms: direct election of senators, women’s suffrage, secret ballot, party primaries. None reduced family background selection. Opening the system didn’t open the candidate pool. Women’s suffrage increased selection!

The lack of access sharing to Mythos by Anthropic has allegedly shaken up EU states authorities and are now clamouring for a European champion. Neither the US, nor China have one champion. They foster internal competition. What we need is several SOTA models from inter-EU providers.

The City of Ottawa posted the raw speed data from before and after Doug Ford banned speed cameras and the effect is so obvious it's not even necessary put a line marking when that happened. This chart shows the percentage of drivers going 15km/h or more over the posted limit.

I really need to learn furrr, purrr, and the R futureverse.

I'll write a thread later, but very happy to have this out!

Forthcoming in AEJ: Microeconomics: "‘Identify the Expert’: an Experimental Study in Economic Advice" by Theodore Alysandratos, Aris Boukouras, Sotiris Georganas, and Zacharias Maniadis.