1/ New with Serdar Ozkan: using the St. Louis Fed DSGE model, we ask whether expectations of future AI-driven productivity gains can raise inflation today. We argue that they can, and that the Fed's response matters a lot. www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

Aumento de 400% no numero de cidadaos americanos a residir em Portugal desde 2020, no @wsj.com

St. Louis public libraries ahead of the curve, teaching children how to use Bloomberg terminals

Inflation regimes systematically affect the sign and size of public debt forecast errors - our latest On the Economy blog post www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

Friends, I'll make @mdenardi.bsky.social 's words my own: Let's make the 19th PEJ Annual Meeting in Aveiro a great one. 3-5 July 2026. Submit your papers and please extend the invitation to all your relevant contacts. All relevant details and further updates here: www.ua.pt/en/pej2026

Taking a break from Claude Code

Small thing and took some time to get going, but seeing this made my day: one of my requests is now a Bill Proposal at the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/c...

Another day in the collapse of the post-Cold War global order. I'll pour some bourbon and watch Ben-Hur.

NATO, 4 April 1979 - 17 January 2026

This is a US government official calling for any US citizens who dissent from his immigration policy preferences, and "get in the way" of federal officers, to be executed by being shot in the face. By "get in the way" he means: being present, unarmed, dissenting, & driving away, without attacking.

Feliz Natal!

Lamento muito que a família do @mfariacastro.bsky.social também esteja a passar por isto. É vergonhoso que Portugal demore mais de 1 ano a reconhecer a cidadania de filhos bebés de portugueses nascidos no estrangeiro expresso.pt/sociedade/20...

US retirement normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic via St. Louis Fed www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

New WP: "The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States", with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz 1/n

Ontem, na Antena 1, sobre o impacto das tarifas: www.rtp.pt/play/p1467/e...

When a stock's prices moves a lot, the NYSE halts trading in that stock for 30 minutes. On Monday March 17 (just tried an arbitrary Monday), there were 30 such circuit breakers triggered. Today, so far, 229! Feel liberated! www.nyse.com/trade-halt

Acho que ainda vou a tempo de me retratar de muito do que disse aqui ha quase exactamente 2 meses. Na altura supus que a aplicacao das tarifas seria muito mais "cirurgica": contida e racional. Penso que muitos outros supuseram o mesmo, a julgar pelas reaccao dos mercados.

Markets stopped falling today 🙏

Ao falar com malta portuguesa sobre política americana, choca-me que ainda haja quem veja os republicanos como uma coisa ali entre o PSD e o CDS quando faz já *uma década* (desde 2016) que são um Chega com laivos de PNR

This is the dumbest thing I read this week and trust me I read a lot of dumb things this week nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...

Circling back on this…

What is the best outlet for a short paper that used to be a section of a longer paper (=same model and data), that makes a very clear point, but that got removed because it was not central to the original paper? Economics Letters? #econtwitter

JFK conspiracy theorist dies, goes to heaven. God receives him: "You may ask me one question." -"Who shot Kennedy?" God replies, "Lee Harvey Oswald shot him from 6th floor of the Texas School Book Depository. He acted alone". Theorist thinks: "This goes higher up than I thought!"

Sostiene Pereira

Beautiful edition of the spiritual sequel, got it second-hand from The Strand in NYC

Good thing I didn't read this during my Ph.D.

The US consulate in Ponta Delgada (my hometown), which is slated to be closed, is the oldest continuously operating US consulate, having been opened in 1795.

"Governor Trudeau, of Canada"

The US Government is one of the world's largest owners of BTC, owning around 207,000 bitcoins worth almost $20 billion. These were mostly acquired through law enforcement seizures

Strategic bitcoin reserve and removing G from Y. Tough weekend to be a macroeconomist.

There are absolutely basic things that the EU could do to support Ukraine (since 2022!) without investing a single cent in the military or sending a single soldier to the frontlines. Lots of "we stand with you" tweets, lots of summits, but not a lot of willingness to actually do anything.

Beef Wellington!

Bom dia para repostar isto. Que enorme vergonha, o que se passou hoje.

Thdpssssps

Against American Putinism

Ramen Tonkotsu, bem picante, com vinhão da Adega Cooperativa de Ponte de Lima 🤌

Alguem conseguiu alguma vez marcar uma renovacao de passaporte no consulado em Nova Iorque? A "ferramenta de agendamento" nao tem agendamentos disponiveis para o resto do ano (e eu ando a consultar a disponibilidade quase diariamente ha um mes). Mesma coisa com Newark.

After 14 years, 4 visas, 2 green cards, and 2 babies, I finally abjured allegiance to foreign princes and rejected any foreign titles of nobility 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Na Radio Observador a explicar as novas tarifas observador.pt/programas/a-...

thank you for giving us a chance to consider your manuscript

Baby throws a carrot on the floor and I joke about the "hungry children in Africa" spiel that was common when I was a kid, to which mother-in-law replies that back in her time it was the "hungry children of Europe" ☠️

Performance das economias espanhola e portuguesa face a Alemanha. Penso que isto tem pouco a ver com politicas especificas e tem principalmente a ver com factores estruturais de longo prazo: declinio da manufactura, adiado desde fim do sec XX, e supremacia do turismo como base da economia europeia

US & EU GDP data came in today, which means another update to my G7 growth chart! Here's each country's cumulative increase in real GDP, since just before the pandemic 🇺🇸 +12.9% 🇨🇦 +7.6% (thru Q3) 🇮🇹 +5.2% 🇫🇷 +3.4% 🇬🇧 +2.9% (thru Q3) 🇯🇵 +.2% (thru Q3) 🇩🇪 -0.2%

Reminder from my fridge:

Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

This is great, thanks for covering my blog post @econchrisclarke.bsky.social

After a stint in the well-fitting Religious Studies building, my Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory lecture was moved to the Dept of Anthropology (downgrade or upgrade?)