Following up on this, declines in consumer sentiment about the economy after inauguration came mostly from democrats and somewhat independents. Republicans sentiment shot up even higher

Vibe shift? Consumer sentiment peaked in Trump’s first week but has been dropping down since then, mostly driven by dampened future expectations

Biggest real sign I’ve seen that he’s going to back down on original broad based tariff plans

The Fed has a communication problem with younger Americans: only 16% of GenZ adults and Millennials were aware the Fed had cut rates in December when we asked them (Dec. 19-22). I think this is part of a larger media ecosystem problem wrt the economy lately

Morning Consult’s unemployment index continues to decline — updated through Jan 18

First episode of Consumer Says for 2025 is out — we talk 2024 biggest losers and winners globally for consumer sentiment as well as a deeper dive into rising sentiment in the US youtu.be/sl-TJdZLiGk

“Providing Republicans with specific information on the likely consumer cost of Trump’s tariff proposals actually backfired, increasing support for the tariffs relative to the control group.” A very interesting survey and read from my colleague Sonnet: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tru...

After today's strong job report, markets betting that chances of any additional rate cuts by May are <50%. www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...

@kaylabruun.bsky.social called it in her memo yesterday: declines in Morning Consult’s Unemployment index "likely points to a potential downside surprise for December unemployment per the BLS but not a dramatic drop". Urate did in fact surprise to the downside today at 4.1%

Our last Consumer Says ep of the year!! Tune in for @sofiabaig.bsky.social and me talking all about tariffs, Fed and INFLATION! (...or if you prefer silence - see our accompanying newsletter! read: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con... subscribe: pro.morningconsult.com/newsletters?...)

Last Consumer Says podcast episode of 2024 with @kaylabruun.bsky.social and it’s all on what consumers think about tariffs + a mini Fed discussion at the end! Check out the full episode here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4Rb...

Latest episode of Consumer Says is out where @kaylabruun.bsky.social and I go over the top 4 headwinds and top 2.5 tailwinds facing the US economy now. Might be my favorite one we’ve done yet! m.youtube.com/watch?v=GF5d...

Most voters think foreign companies or foreign governments pay for tariffs

Our team writes A LOT about differing dynamics/econ experiences across income groups. It's mostly been bad news for lower earners... But from late summer thru mid-Nov, we are finally seeing improvement in consumer health scores - with <$50k group showing the most progress!

Nice catch on updates to employment data by @jc-econ.bsky.social. Suggests productivity growth higher & slowdown in hiring well underway. Likely changes in the pace of new biz birth and deaths - tends to happen at inflection points. Interest-rate sensitive sectors hurting most.

The Walmart/Target earnings contrast got me curious....so I took a look at how our brand-specific Consumer Health Index (CHI) scores shifted in Q3. Turns out there were some conflicting demand patterns among these retailers customers, foreshadowing their earnings outcomes!

Retail expert Claire Tassin joined @kaylabruun.bsky.social and me to discuss consumer demand and holiday shopping trends for 2024. Check out the full episode here: m.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...

It's podcast day for @sofiabaig.bsky.social ...me...and our VERY SPECIAL GUEST, retail expert Claire Tassin!! We chat about consumer demand in general and then dig deeper on 2024 holiday spending trends & Black Friday expectations! Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...

Update on Morning Consult's Consumer Health Index (CHI) - we are seeing some interesting movements as we approach peak holiday spending season! Consumer demand appears to be picking up thru mid Nov (chart runs thru Nov. 16)--and it's not just driven by the post-election sentiment bump either...

“.. Goldman’s chart is a good example. Based on their estimations, the terminal [Fed Funds] rate will be around 4-4.25% under a high tariff regime, a percentage point above current market expectations ..” - FedWatch Advisors #FOMC

Cost of child care for one child can be more than rent in some US counties blog.dol.gov/2024/11/19/n...

Is the comparison to the US government/economy to Argentina driving anyone else crazy? Or is this just a very particular pet peeve of mine. Argentina had way more government spending relative to GDP, ownership of companies in certain industries, currency controls, 100x US inflation, etc.

Follow my coworker and podcast cohost @kaylabruun.bsky.social for more charts and updates from Morning Consult Economics!

Good news - Morning Consult’s unemployment index has been trending down ever since it peaked the second week of September. Updated through Nov 16

Inflation is the incumbent killer!

Incredible chart via WSJ

I guess I’m not the only one wondering if the proposed tariff policies are *actually* going to happen

Upping this for those curious about the breakdown in future expectations/current conditions that make up consumer sentiment

First thread contains a typo so I’m starting off strong 😂

Super helpful resource when starting out here!

Morning Consult’s consumer sentiment index swapped immediately for Democrats and Republicans following the election last week mostly due to changes in future expectations

Hello #EconSky! Overwhelmed trying to replicate my Twitter following list, who should I follow over here?