Du weißt, dass du am Arsch bist, wenn die Tabelle plötzlich nicht mehr ausreicht: Oberflächentemperatur im Pazifik, jeweils gemessen im September 1850-2025 ⬇️ #Klimakatastrophe

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 12, 2025 ~ The end of bees. "Fifteen species of bumblebee, which play a crucial role in pollinating peas, beans, peanuts and clover ... are now classified as threatened." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Das sog. "Overshoot" Szenario, also erst zuviel CO2 und das dann wieder rausholen, ist eine riesige Überdosis an Hopium

Biofuels are already a pretty weak idea

If not now, then in a few years' time. Which basically makes hardly any difference😎

I'm afraid there will be no other way and it will cost humanity an incredible amount, well ... 😎

Maritime Stratocumulus Wolken verschwinden, das ist schlecht, denn sie wirken kühlend. Ist der Ozean wärmer lösen sich die Wolken weiter auf und der Ozean erwärmt sich. Eine gefährliche Kettenreaktion, die sich global auswirkt. Details im Video. #globaleErhitzung #Klimakatastrophe

Your 'doom quote' for today: "we are close to a tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice system, from the state where there has been year-round sea ice for tens of thousands of years to one where there isn't." newsociety.com/book/a-brief...

I has been a very long time since I posted this list of 40 consequences of climate change. But, it's important to take note of item number 40. I truly wish things were going to get better, but sadly, it's all just going to get more f&%ked from here. climatecasino.net/2021/10/top-...

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 9, 2025 ~ Arctic FUBAR "If orange rivers are the first sign, what comes next could redefine the planet’s climate system, and faster than anyone imagined. What began as an aesthetic anomaly has become a planetary alarm..." www.ecoticias.com/en/arctic-tu...

Friday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 11th lowest on record (JAXA data) • about 20,000 km² below the 2010s mean • about 1,300,000 km² below the 2000s mean • about 2,400,000 km² below the 1990s mean • about 3,040,000 km² below the 1980s mean More: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Whether it's minimum extent, thickness or volume, there is no evidence that Arctic sea-ice is in rapid decline at the moment. All three variables have been stable for about the last 15 years. Then again, Arctic sea-ice f&%kery could always get going again next year. Or the year after that.

1.5 Grad Marke bis 2100 einhalten? Pariser Abkommen? Vergisst es - die Staaten haben versagt, Politiker, Medien und die gesamte Gesellschaft. Neueste Projektionen zeigen 2029 ist die Marke endgültig verloren. Ist übrigens nicht umkehrbar. Dankt der #Milliardenlobby. #Klimakatastrophe

Gestern erreichte mich Kritik aus der Orga unseres Zukunftsfests im Spätsommer. Ich sei da viel zu negativ aufgetreten, Menschen bräuchten gerade jetzt Worte, die motivieren und mitreißen. Ich kann das verstehen. Aber ich kann das nicht liefern.

The final data for 2025 is in, and the planet saw 152 days with the global 2m surface temperature at or above the pre-industrial maximum of 15.5°C. This is just short of 154 days in 2023 and the record 160 days in 2024. Next year? The Climate 8-ball is temporarily furloughed.

We probably need to go back to ~350 ppm CO₂ equivalent for temperatures to stop rising. We are now above 573 ppm (GHG forcing of +4.1 W/m²). That's without aerosols cooling things down. There's too much uncertainty to be sure, but going back to 350 ppm is already a Herculean task.

My latest animation of the global surface temperature anomaly, 1851 - 2025 (current through September).

Just remembered this jaw-dropping graph by @oceansclimatecu.bsky.social showing the rate of change in CO2 during the previous two deglaciations of the Pleistocene (which, as a fun aside, featured ~400 feet of sea level rise) as compared with today

Even if we didn’t use any UK air temperature observations we would still know how much the UK has warmed. climatelabbook.substack.com/p/monitoring...

Die Nobelpreise in den Naturwissenschaften sind vergeben. Alle drei recht klassisch. Vor drei Jahren war ich in Nature Physics mal an einem Text zur Rolle der Klimakrise dabei beteiligt. Es kam dazu, weil jemand von uns eine Anfrage nach einem Gutachten ablehnte, weil gerade das Klima wichtiger sei.

👇👇👇

New Zealand oceans warming 34% faster than global average, putting homes and industry at risk, report finds www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

While the CO2/Energy (shift to renewables) has continued in China, Energy/GDP (energy efficiency, structural change) has basically stopped. Maybe this is because of electrification? In any case, the changes in CO2/GDP in the last 10 years are very disappointing (hence no peak). 3/3

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o... “It is a bit like pulling a thread from a fabric and the whole thing can sort of fall apart – understanding those interactions is perhaps the biggest blind spot for us.”

This graphic shows average Arctic sea-ice thickness (average monthly volume divided by average monthly extent, 12-month running average). October, 2017, saw the minimum, at 1.228 meters. Current is 1.267 meters and falling fast. What's next? The Climate 8-ball is frozen solid.

'Brazil soy deal that curbs Amazon deforestation to be suspended in 2026... ...“We cannot allow foreign multinationals to regulate a product essential to human life, because we are talking about food. Soy is protein … meat depends on soy.”' news.mongabay.com/short-articl...

Carbon offsets fail to cut global heating due to ‘intractable’ and systemic problems, study says - Analysis of 25 years of evidence shows most schemes are poor quality and fail to lower emissions #climatecrisis www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Eine kaum beachtete, verpasste Leitgröße früherer Debatten war das verbleibende CO₂ Budget, ab wo vereinbarte Grenzen wahrscheinlich hart überschritten werden. Ähnliches wiederholt sich nun mit dem verbleibenden Budget an Reststabilität, ab wo Kollapsdynamiken wahrscheinlich hart überrollend werden.

2025 is at 108 days above the Paris Limit and counting ... Graphic suggested by @BritpolInRussia on Twitter.

The maximum global mean surface temperature (GMST) was 15.48°C for the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. In other words, the GMST never broke 15.50°C. This graphic shows the number of times per year the GMST broke 15.50°C, from 1940 to 2024. 2025 is at 149 and counting.

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 3, 2025 ~ Yes, and? "As the world’s climate gets hotter, warming ocean waters combine with warmer air that can hold much more moisture, to create stronger and more destructive precipitation events." news.mongabay.com/2025/10/clim...

Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 30, 2025 ~ These are the coolest days. "Extreme heat is not a distant risk – it is here now, threatening our people, our economies and our future." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Your 'doom quote' for today: "In some regions of the tropics, outdoor life will become virtually impossible. People will flee, just like many other living things, to higher, cooler climates." www.amazon.com/Heat-Will-Ki...

Zur Einordnung: Es gibt Menschen, vor allem Konservative, für die das ganze Thema Klima absolut keine physikalische oder moralische Implikation hat. Allenfalls formale, juristische; eben verhandelbare. Schwer, da eine gemeinsame Sprache zu finden. Ich probiere es zumindest noch beim Thema Anpassung.

Dennis Meadows: “There is nothing that we can do” "you can not hide from climate change, which affects both the poor and the rich" "for genetic reasons we are just not able to deal with such things as long-term climate change" churchandstate.org.uk/2012/06/denn...

Even with the recent downswing, daily global 2-meter surface temperatures are still running more than 1.5C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline. Will this continue? The Climate 8-ball is putting on sunscreen.

Komm Europa, ich weiß deine Bevölkerung hat viele Monde gesehen. Aber ein bisschen schneller? 😎

Wie ist das Europa? Auch mal langsam Fahrt aufnehmen? 😎

3°C of global warming by 2050 could lead to >4 billion deaths. No one would put their family on an airplane that has a 5% (or 0.005%) chance of crashing. While most are complacently contributing to the destruction of our global life support system. bsky.app/profile/ghos...

Fast 10 Hiroshimas an Wärme PRO SEKUNDE!!! Wird dann schon warm, irgendwie 😎

Schau dir das an. Clausius-Clapeyron klappt. Ganz viel Wasser in der Luft. 😎

The record low for the 3-year running average for Antarctic sea-ice extent was set in early December, 2024. Current numbers are just slightly above the record. Will we see a new record low soon? The Climate 8-ball has been pocketed.

BREAKING 🌍🌡📈 The German Meteorological Society and Physical Society warn today that 3°C of global warming could be reached already by 2050! Global warming is accelerating - A call for decisive action 1/8

3°C of global warming by 2050 might be hard to imagine, but it could happen if the non-linear warming trend of the past 30 years continues. See this graph with @ecmwf.int ERA5 data (trend line has an R² of 0.975), made using the code they provided, by @tugberksamur.bsky.social 8/8

Die Erde wird immer dunkler und heizt sich dadurch immer schneller auf. 😎

Most people know what a flash flood is, but have never heard of a flash drought They soon will Flash droughts can suck all the moisture from the top soil, devastating harvests in just a few weeks Global crop yields are set to be hammered www.theguardian.com/news/2025/se...

Es kann auch alles sehr viel schneller gehen 😎