I don't think declining mobility is a real trend---likely all measurement error in the CPS (which itself shows way lower migration rates than the ACS) carlmcpherson.github.io/files/mcpher...

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3

Want to re-up this not that the official CBO distributional analysis is out--they are assuming people who lose Medicaid get uncompensated care that is over half the value of the insurance they lost.

In the distributional analysis of OBBB, CBO assumes that a lot of the cost of losing Medicaid is felt by higher-income health care providers who will provide health care for free, not Medicaid recipients themselves

Will be posting a lot more about this more tomorrow, but for now, know that all the new tax cuts in OBBB exclude lower-income families. The typical family with kids needs $36k to get any benefit.

Cook county housing authority is making big budget cuts because of expected Congressional funding shortfalls. While not explicitly evicting current voucher holders, they are making changes that will force people to move, some of whom won’t be able to find a new place that will accept a voucher.

Love to find these super old CBPP reports when researching something

New Congressional Research Service report concludes the TCJA had a minimal impact on the economy www.congress.gov/crs-product/...

I wouldn't be surprised if tariff revenues are used as rhetorical cover for the lack of TCJA extension+ pay-fors. Maybe that's even one way to square the circle between the competing tracks the Senate and House are on right now?

Good social science evidence that this is both 1) true and 2) central to the overall benefits of social security leelockwood.droppages.com/IGOASI.pdf

Nice post. I think an even more direct way more supply --> more distribution is cost per voucher is way lower when rents are lower. Looking at HUD data for a few choice cities, LA spends $1,831 per month per voucher, Chicago spends $1,215

We’ve seen a lot of studies in recent years on unconditional income transfers, but little in terms of cohesive set of conclusions. See the Jain Family Institute report that summarizes some of these studies. 👇

Really great stuff Illinois... Take the online Medicaid/SNAP/TANF benefits portal offline for a week is bad enough, now it's two weeks later, it's still down, and you can't even update the message of when it will be available.

Here is a report on the Compton Pledge guaranteed income pilot run by the Jain Family Institute in collaboration with Sewin Chen, @smconstantino.bsky.social @johanneshaushofer.com, and Jonathan Morduch. I believe @jacklandry.bsky.social will have a piece discussing results soon.

This really resonates with me democracyjournal.org/arguments/po...

Big Congressional Budget Office News, the agency is building capacity to estimate long-run effects. Starts with example of Medicaid enrollment, finding increasing child medicaid enrollment would reduce the future federal deficit by between $800-$3,400 per child per year www.cbo.gov/publication/...

I will never say "these data"... it's like lame nerd bat signal

More news this morning that economic hardship increased from 2021 to 2022. This time measured as food insecurity from USDA 13.4 million kids without enough food in 2022, 3.7 million more than 2021 This is a policy choice we are making

This is a way bigger deal than the excess admissions of very rich kids at 12 universities, conditional on test scores. I am glad the NYT is reporting on this. SES differences in academic preparation at the time of college application are simply enormous. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Intererting and topical article on party-leaders influence on roll call votes drive.google.com/file/d/1HPjy...

Application requirements for an old Obama-era weatherization program vs. new IRA energy efficiency program. Crazy requirements (everyone's social security card??) vs. self-reporting your income or verifying via eligibility in some other safety net program

Crowdsourcing ideas for a document of "solved problems worth solving". Structure: - Here is a problem and the real consequences - Other places have had the problem and solved it. - If 5-10 people spent a decade on it, they could prob solve it here.