Data on the causes of IDF fatalities since Israel broke the ceasefire show how reliant Hamas is on IEDs, and hence how little offensive capacity it has. So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.

I wrote about why it may be misleading to think that the IDF's raid-withdraw-repeat cycle, expressed most recently in Beit Hanoun, is headed for another turn. zeroline.substack.com/p/can-israel...

Translated Ha'aretz chart on IDF fatalities in Gaza over past year. In a month, if no end to the war, we'll see whether June was an anomaly or if Hamas are able to maintain an effective resurgence in lethality. (nb: Even at this level, it seems far from sufficient to deter IDF.)

”A U.S.- and Israeli-backed group handing out aid in Gaza said on Friday all its distribution sites were closed until further notice, urging residents to stay away from these venues ’for their safety’” @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Latest newsletter: : Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c. zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...

Absolutely false, irresponsible framing. The ceasefire has not "expired", it has been killed by Israel, apparently with U.S. backing. Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”

When the Houthis started their Red Sea attacks, alot of people tried to claim they were unrelated to Israel's war in Gaza. Well, as the ceasefire comes into effect, the Houthis have halted their attacks.

The remote, strategically located Yemeni island of Abdelkuri suddenly has an airstrip. There’s no explanation, but someone has written “I LOVE UAE” just next to it in gigantic letters, so maybe there is an explanation. @jongambrell.bsky.social @apnews.com apnews.com/article/yeme...

Notes on the ceasefire: how it came about, what it tells us about the successes and failures of Joe Biden, Hamas, and the Palestinian solidarity movement in the West. And what comes next. zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...

Me and Tom Rollins wrote about why Assad fell so quickly, and why efforts to cut Syrians out of their own story are wrong-headed. Yes, the international dimension mattered, but it's far from the whole picture. open.substack.com/pub/zeroline...

An utterly damning and horrific image.

BlueSky really needs a save function. Ideally with a workable search, unlike Twitter/X.

We need to understand with absolute clarity what the IDF is, and what it does. It is not capable of exercising self-restraint, and Israel’s “political echelon” has no intention of restraining it. It must be restrained from outside. www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...

A damning, detailed report on the bias of the BBC News website - the most visited on the internet - in favour of Israel and against Palestine. open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...

Israel is running a prison camp at Ofer, which lawyers say routinely administers torture to detainees, including electrocution and beating - in at least one case, to death www.972mag.com/ofer-camp-to...

One of those weeks where the images of dead children from Gaza are especially terrible. What more is there to say about it anymore? Eternal shame on anyone who excuses it. This did not have to happen.

Bashar al-Asad claims to have, in essence, fled Syria by accident, after going to Russia's Hmeimim airbase for safety, and then evacuating with the troops there.

This Syria sanctions lit review was published 9 Dec, but apparently finished before the HTS offensive. It suggests that sanctions were economically devastating but politically ineffective. Expect to see push back on the second part of that conclusion. www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...

Thorough run-down from Perun on what we can infer, so far, about why Assad's army collapsed as quickly as it did: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOzX...

Wait. Are Syrians participating? Could this be a constructive meeting? Possibly. Does Syria need a ton of assistance? Absolutely. But hammering out an approach to transition should not happen unless Syrians are leading.

An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria.

After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.) @manniefabian.bsky.social www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...

The release of prisoners from the infamous Palestine Branch in Damascus. "10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt. "What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.

A video filmed by a friend in Damascus: celebratory gunfire over the early morning skyline as the news of Assad's departure spreads. Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.

It's a shame he never got see the inside of Sednaya, but here we go. What a moment.

2021 PBS interview with Jolani, well worth your time, covering his upbringing and ideological formation, time in prison, relationship to ISIS and Al-Qaeda and the break with both, consolidating HTS's power within the rebel camp, torture allegations:

Useful backgrounder on HTS seizure of Aleppo, and their first day or two of rule there: newlinesmag.com/reportage/th...

What are the best pieces to read or people to talk to on Jolani's political and administrative projects? I.e. how he presents his agenda ideologically as well as state building, and how they've evolved.

An enormous toll for Hezbollah: "One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its month-long 2006 war with Israel." www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Much of the worry around nuclear risk in Ukraine concerns unquantifiable increases to the unquantifiable but tiny possibility that something unquantifiably bad will happen. The perfectly-malleable material for anyone's fears, prejudices and fantasies to run wild.

The former head of IDF military intelligence has written an assessment of Israel's plan for Gaza; its advantages and disadvantages. Short version: the plan is indefinite chaos. Slightly longer version: www.mako.co.il/news-columns...

This story by my @washingtonpost.com colleagues about the toll of Israel's air war on Lebanon's children is devastating. "The bodies of the adults had long since been retrieved. Pieces of the children, though, were still being found everywhere." www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...

Also, this was a successful attempt to use a third party app, Buffer, to post simultaneously to Twitter/X, BlueSky, and Threads.

Last night I saw No Other Land, the documentary about Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Masafer Yatta in the southern Hebron Hills. It hits really hard, and took me back to the time I spent in the West Bank. Go and see it if you can.

Can't find an English source yet but it is concerning that the Junta in Myanmar & China are setting up a joint private military company to protect Chinese interests in Myanmar. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar bur.mizzima.com/2024/11/13/3...

Hello! Its time. Cracks knuckles... its polycrisisblueskytime @katemac.bsky.social @phenomenalworld.bsky.social @thepolycrisis.bsky.social

I would have been for a Harris vote in any swing state. But if everyone who was voting primarily on Gaza did so then, all else held equal, it would a) highly-likely have made no difference to the outcome, and b) have made that bloc much easier to take for granted in any future, marginal election.

French-manufactured military technology incorporated into armoured personnel carriers made by the United Arab Emirates is being used on the battlefield in Sudan what is a violation of the UN arms embargo on Darfur, Amnesty said in a new investigation www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...

Excellent advice. Worthwhile politics arises from an attitude of responsibility, which entails a primary concern for consequences. A politics of self-expression - which, let's face it, is much of what activist politics is - is ultimately arid.

"'Today we fought them off, but tomorrow idk' - this I hear from one of the most motivated soldiers I know. Donate to fundraisers, the situation right now is literally the worst, and it will get even worse"

I wrote about Yahya Sinwar: his strengths and flaws, why he initiated the 7 October attacks/Al-Aqsa Flood in the manner that he did, how to judge his legacy today, and what we can learn from comparing him to David Ben Gurion. zeroline.substack.com/p/the-traged...

I wrote about Yahya Sinwar: his strengths and flaws, why he initiated the 7 October attacks/Al-Aqsa Flood in the manner that he did, how to judge his legacy today, and what we can learn from comparing him to David Ben Gurion. zeroline.substack.com/p/the-traged...

I'm not on here much, but I write a newsletter about war, international politics, and political ideas. You can check it out here: zeroline.substack.com

21 years ago today, the IDF killed my friend Rachel Corrie as she defended a Palestinian home in Rafah, Gaza. As a deadly assault on Rafah looms, I wrote about her legacy for @jacobinmag.bsky.social jacobin.com/2024/03/rach...

The key question gripping British politics: is Keir Starmer ruthlessly committed to misleading the public in order to win power (good) or is he absolutely sincere about what he believes (bad)?

Word-for-word transcription of independent mediator Gershon Baskin's messages to-and-from Hamas official Ghazi Hamad in the wake of 7/10 re negotiating release of hostages, cessation of violence. Other channels were working, so this will be part of the story. blogs.timesofisrael.com/negotiations...

Los Angeles Times editorial board: