Turquoise tide*? (*With all of the contextual caveats associated with these locals)

Reform gaining across the North, South, East and West of England with significant swings ✔️1st by-election victory ✔️1st mayorality ✔️1st (and the rest) County Council control They'll now face the test of delivery and accountability on key public services for voters

📉Wow. As reported by BBC, lowest ever combined Projected National Share for Con/Lab, and individual low points for both parties too. How will party leaders respond and react once the dust settles?

Conservatives and Labour are losing most heavily where they performed well previously, leading to big Reform gains. Professor Sir John Curtice: "Cons vote down 36pts on avg in wards where their vote was more than 65% in 2021. Labour down 22pts on avg in wards where they won more than 40% in 2021".

🎙️NEW Political Press Box: I joined @iansilvera.bsky.social to discuss: 📉How does @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling work? 📊How are politicians faring in the polls? ⚖️What issues matter? 📚Is education an important cleavage? 🗳️And what to look out for in the Local Elections👇 pod.link/1743479757/e...

Timely that I wrote an article for @theipaper.com a week or so ago on this very subject! A pact or merger could prove challenging for both parties given @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows there is not much love lost between these two voting coalitions inews.co.uk/opinion/poll...

If interested in what a polling expert thinks of a Reform UK / Con deal, my colleague @hollyday1993.bsky.social wrote this for @theipaper.com just two weeks ago. TLDR: About 2/5 of each party's voters don't like the other - no guarantee you can 'add' them together. inews.co.uk/opinion/poll...

Substantial shift in British public opinion towards the US Only 3 in 10 Britons now agree there is currently a 'special relationship' between the US and UK - a 17-point drop from May 2024. (1)

🚨NEW from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Economic concern and cost of living worries impacted by tariffs: 📉2 in 3 think that tariffs will have a negative impact on the UK economy 🪙2 in 5 think they'll negatively impact personal finances. Full dataset and write up here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/propor...

With local elections fast approaching, I've written for @theipaper.com on the prospect of a future Reform/Conservative merger (using @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data. Voters aren't chess pieces but could the right unite to prevent a second Labour term? t.co/RumEfdqnzN

🪩Back by popular demand after a busy news week last week, I'll be revealing all at 3:15pm on BBC Radio 5 Live with Matt Chorley, featuring a little light-hearted Ipsos UK polling💃

Check out the latest Ipsos Politics Talk podcast where myself @hollyday1993.bsky.social and @stephenkb.bsky.social take a deep dive look at the numbers youtu.be/w-p_Clywtl0?...

🪩The BBC Strictly Come Dancing 20th anniversary series is in full swing, but how do the public think politicians would fare? Mixed track record previously…tune into BBC Radio 5 Live shortly with Matt Chorley to hear some exclusive Ipsos UK polling from me! 💃