MIT holds the line bsky.app/profile/dyna...

My Trade Secrets today. Trump has annoyed farmers by provoking China to block their exports while bailing out Argentina, home of their rivals. Are the farmers right to feel betrayed? Is a pitchfork rebellion against his tariffs coming? Will farm country turn against Trump? Answers: no, no and no.

As it did in 2018, the White House plans to dole out relief funds to struggling U.S. farmers who have lost their biggest customer, China, because of steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

So is the US economy "phenomenal" (Trump) and weak hiring data for July were "rigged" or is the labor market about to fall off a cliff and the US is in need of a massive rate cut?https://www.ft.com/content/d8953f37-2bb1-4272-a24e-dbf0a02ee4f0

Fact check: absolutely true.

Let them eat Wisconsin cheese. www.ft.com/content/cf57...

It was not so long ago that central bankers were "the only game in town"

Details and FAQ on new Fed framework www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

shapingwork.mit.edu/careers/Great opportunity to work with Daron Acemoglu David Autor, for a Predoctoral position, MIT 👇👇👇 shapingwork.mit.edu/careers/jame... Want to work with us? We're hiring for Predoctoral Researcher positions to work with @DAcemogluMIT, @davidautor, and @baselinescene.

Firing the BLS Commissioner because you don't like the data is a dark day.

Echoes of the Kirchners. What next? Default?

Trump orders firing of BLS commissioner after dismal employment report reut.rs/3HcwBRT

Dollar keeps losing market share but euro is no winner either: ECB study reut.rs/3HD6bsw

Europe is often criticized for its overregulation of innovative companies and the lack of capital available to them. However, several success stories show that innovation can be done in Europe, as I write in an article for the IMF magazine, F&D. @pgourinchas.bsky.social bipr.jhu.edu/newsandviews...

Has the G-7 outlived its purpose? Fifty years after its first meeting, the group of nations is struggling to realize its political and economic ambitions.

Stifled by overregulation and lack of capital, Europe's innovation scene is actually alive and stirring. "Europe's innovators are waking up", my article for the IMF's Finance & Development magazine, tells quite a few success stories. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

A wonderful memory of Stan Fischer being warmly greeted by his disciple and friend Mario Draghi at the @ecb.europa.eu Central Banking Forum in Sintra. Central-bank watcher watching at the back

Olivier Blanchard and Angel Ubide on the need for Eurobonds. Now, let the "frugals" argue against it.

"Stan the Man" A giant of economics and policymaking, a wonderful person.

Draft of Trump budget for FY26: Money for the Head Start program, which provides early child care and education for low-income families, would be eliminated. via www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...

Richmond Fed econs not mincing any words: "Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on imported goods...The new measures targeting Canada, Mexico, the EU and automobiles threaten widespread disruptions across key U.S. industries."

"A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses." The 3rd (and golden) basic law of human stupidity, by economic historian Carlo M. Cipolla in his "The basic laws of human stupidity" (1976)

For those listening to this rant, those numbers are not tariffs. The European Union, e.g., has weighted average tariff rates of ~ 3% and arguably lower on US goods. So they are clearly including VATs and who knows what else? This false reciprocity is nonsense. For more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

I wrote this in July 2016 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/glo...

Novo elétrico low-cost da Volkswagen vai ser produzido em Palmela

The most vocal opposition to Trump's policies is done by @wsj.com www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...

#Germany How to reform the debt brake, according to the #Bundesbank English version here. Important. H/T @ulbrich-jens.bsky.social publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...

If the Dems had half a clue they'd put up a big stock market ticker somewhere near the White House.

Leopard: I will eat your face Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp

Friedrich Merz, the conservative frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor, suffered a major political defeat today as a proposed migration law backed by conservatives was rejected in the Bundestag.

Do Europeans still get to set the rules for their own elections? Or does Elon Musk decide? www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

FWIW - The External Revenue Service will be collecting tariffs which are paid by US importers who study after study have shown pass most of the cost of tariffs on to US consumers who buy those tariffed imports.

Both the most self-deluding & nasty opening to an inaugural address in US history.

This is a campaign speech, not an inaugural address.

Stumbled across this chart that illustrates why Londoners bang on about housing costs so much. ifs.org.uk/inequality/w...

Se ne è andato Rino Tommasi, uno dei grandi del giornalismo sportivo italiano. Il ricordo del direttore di Tennis Italiano, Stefano Semeraro. www.tennisitaliano.it/ciao-rino-la...

Lula thought he'll be the standard bearer of the Global South. After a reality check (lastly at the Rio #G20 summit), #Brazil appears more like a vassal in a China-dominated anti-Western front. Next try at #COP30 in 2025. My comment for @ispionline.bsky.social bipr.jhu.edu/newsandviews...

“.. we’re developing into a plutocracy .. We’ve got an enormous number of enormously rich people that have convinced themselves that they’re rich because they’re smart and constructive. And they don’t like government, and they don’t like to pay taxes." - Paul Volcker, gone five years ago today.

Putin isn't fighting just for territory in Ukraine, and any "peace plan" that fails to understand his goals will fail www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Merkel, Merz and Buba chief now in favour of reforming Germany's infamous "debt brake". An apology for 15 years of economic nonsense would be welcome.

Kit McMahon, a great figure in a City long gone www.ft.com/content/7377...

At a time when Europe is trying to limit migration to appease the far right, an ECB survey finds that 90% of businesses report a shortage of workers, especially in Germany www.ecb.europa.eu/press/econom...

Doing interesting panel on European politics at SAIS Bologna — sadly, I have to do these nice things online.

"Nein zu allem"

Brilliant presentation by Giancarlo Corsetti for the annual Robert Mundell Memorial Lecture in Bologna at Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe "Mundell's Long Shadow on the Euro at 25" You can watch it on YouTube at bipr.jhu.edu

Former Commission president interview with Beda Romano @sole24ore Interesting (and at times amusing). You don't beat the far right by parroting their positions 24plus.ilsole24ore.com/art/l-unione...

Two days of excellent discussions and many brilliant papers on central bank communication at the CEPR network meeting at St Hugh's College, Oxford, led by the great Michael McMahon with Michael Ehrmann of the ECB and Klodiana Istrefi of the Banque de France.

Always here for a Lee Buchheit guest post on @alphaville.ft.com t.co/OAuIE71M6a

Finally see the world "lag" in an article about the ECB monetary policy. What a surprise! The GC seems to have forgotten this: monetary policy operates with a lag. 450bp of hikes were bound to show up somewhere. www.ft.com/content/1679...

"The bad guys are winning" (cit. @anneapplebaum.bsky.social)