I love my firepit but some transitions can't be resisted. I am not sure how well many of us would do in an economy with a 30% firewood GDP....

@steveliesman.bsky.social did a bit of a reality check on the shadow fed notion with Goolsbee. Lots of sentiment pointing to more risk than reward for this idea. Markets are unpredictable. You have no vote, and you'd need to sway the Goolsbees of the world in place of the actual chair...

I get the attraction of this idea…But if you become a “shadow chair” what can you do to actually influence outcomes? You have no vote; markets may put some weight on your words but will mostly care about outcomes; meanwhile you have x months to make mistakes….

No beehives at the Eccles building. Glad to clear that up.

Powell ahead of Fin Services committee hearing...rates going nowhere fast....tariff inflation still a risk....need more time to know the policy and know the effects.... #econsky

Powell's on the Hill today amid chatter about Trump naming a "shadow" chair. But naming someone and giving them months to make a misstep with markets or the senate seems risky...Meanwhile Fed rotation means the president may only have one more board appointment coming... #econsky

Liberation Day?

The other side of the bimodal FED….

And meanwhile...Is this the shadow shadow rate? www.reuters.com/business/fed...

Reality check or mark to market...either ways... www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Well this I guess is not surprising but depressing still....The double polarization whammy from AI + social media from Nobel winner Acemoglu et al...

Add a possible commodity shock to the Fed's list of arguments to stay on hold for now...Energy index falling for four months and now?? www.reuters.com/business/fed...

The Fed May meeting (minutes released today) was overtaken fast by the China tariff climbdown. But the import may be a)they penciled in very deep effects and that remains a risk until the final tariff schedule is known...b)they took the market vol to heart even if they were not close to intervening.

Some fun maps and varying estimates....Someday they will have actual numbers to use for estimation but for now laying the groundwork...

Was a time not too many years ago when Yellen and others talked about this as a thing -- find ways to destigmatize occupations in both directions...Don't here much about that anymore...BLS 10 yr job projections don't show the below trend slowing.....

Interesting how quick these folks piled on Bernanke’s proposal…and it will be interesting to see what they come up with as a substitute….

is “no” allowed? there’s a reason they try to overlook commodities.

Baby, meet bathwater… Fed’s Powell oversaw a load of changes to their strategy. Inflation cast it all in a different light. Review is underway as Powell enters his likely last year as chair….

they’ve all hit on variations of this theme…They are handcuffed until Trump decides what economic world we are living in….

A lot of Trump signs in our part of SC that just now got fiber to the home…I will say that two Starlink accounts got ditched the next day in my extended family, and ATT fixed wireless lost some business also. Was the Rural Electrification Act also woke? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...

fiber optic to rural south carolina…goodbye att fixed and starlink…been cobbling from both for a long time

From Cleveland Fed....Household willingness to trade unemployment for low inflation is pretty limited it turns out...Implies some politically challenging decisions ahead...

Even if Trump doesn't try to fire Powell there's a transition coming to an institution that has been a mainstay of global finance... www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Latest BBook from the Fed is about as close as you'll get to a blood bath in an institutional document...Pretty relentless -- even the bright spots are discounted with a dour outlook... www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

Dont know about other dads but I put the training wheels on and took them off when it was risk-appropriate. Meanwhile my wife had them galloping on horses without ever putting the training wheels on even. Every risky family is risky in its own way…

Google AI wants me to miss the ECB press conference: The ECB press conference starts at 2:45 p.m. CET, which is 10:45 a.m. in Takoma Park, MD. Here's a breakdown: CET (Central European Time): 14:45 CET (2:45 p.m.) Takoma Park, MD: 10:45 a.m. (CET is 6 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time).

What would it take to turn the U.S. sports talk ecosystem into same intensity art and (actual) music criticism and good ideas for raised bed gardens and local fauna habitat? Feel we’d all be better off…Sad, as someone once said

Powell today is largely a repeat of what he said to SABEW earlier this month re larger than expected impact of tariffs and coming (maybe) tradeoffs...Still no mention of market vol...Maybe Qs will get to that....Maybe a bit more weight on the growth outlook...

Why isn’t there ez pass for major urban transit systems? Tired of juggling wmata, cta, marta etc…

Pick a lane as they say....Waller says Fed may end up cutting to head off a downturn because of tariffs....Or not have to react at all if it is negotiated down...Choose your own adventure:

Did the pandemic…end? Remind with proof please…I am stuck in a Shirley Bassey song.

Living without empathy must be awful. I spend half my time wondering what's in somebody else's head; horrible to be cooped up in your own all the time.

so much for the inflation theory...

Some serious ground-truthing from Fed's Kashkari this a.m. courtesy of @steveliesman.bsky.social on @cnbc.com. Markets may show investors turning from U.S. Fed cant dictate long rates only smooth through shocks. Reluctant to intervene absent a true market function crisis. Worth a listen...

My ancient philosophy is rusty, but telling Socrates that ideas can cross borders might have led to a really long dialogue.

The tariff-pause-that-left-a-bunch-of-stuff-in-place has washed over the Fed with barely a mention. The outlook, which shifted mostly on the basis of the earlier announcements that were not on the giant board, remains for slower growth and higher prices. Recent vol in seen as market functioning...

Is this the day Vanguard said would happen so don’t do the thing you are about to do, or the day to do the thing because of the other days that made you want to do it?

Hmmm….

Carville was right.

Stl Fed’s Musalem: Growth slipping below trend, inflation risks higher. Market vol part of reassessing global growth outlook; no sense of market dysfunction…. @reuters.com

just got called dapper for my Donegal tweed. I’ll take it (and reminds one way around tariffs is take a trip and race past customs)

Doug Tallamy is an entomologist, author and arguably the father of the modern native plants movement.

Some chat on the Fed and why swooning stocks on their own don't raise much fuss... www.reuters.com/podcasts/sco...

Very interesting. Not sure what to make of the subjunctive mood. All this is up for debate? Planning as retrofit? Also a nod deep to Chips act etc as a direction for other sectors… www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/o...

Rationing starts Monday…

really interesting idea…wonder about delayed/precautionary effects also…Home improvements or auto replacement put off a year to save…MPC gets a big nudge lower…

Giving American Beauty and Terrapin Station a listen back to back following weird question to Powell today. It’s a bad comparison. “Ripple” is a standout (the harp unstrung!!). “Estimated Prophet” has to be the most threatening set of lyrics ever put to a reggae beat…Good creepy but a different ilk.

so we got purple ties and the Grateful Dead but no questions on a massive market meltdown...sorry folks...

Hawkish undertone from Powell despite the trump tweets....higher inflation, slower growth and a looongggg sentence on expectations.

Waiting for someone to lay out the details on what “better” looks like. Don’t think making fewer planes and more socks works out. So presumably not full autarky. Therefore….what’s the inventory of imports and exports seen as optimal? How long to get there? Is ANY trade deficit ever not cheating?