The Prime Minister has got a modest bounce in reduced overall disapproval, from his position on the US attack on Iran. (His position on the crisis more popular than his govt) Despite gap in approval, still in a near tie (+1 on Badenoch, -2 to Farage) on PM choices www.opinium.com/resource-cen...

For me, the best breakup song ever written is Goodbye Stranger by Supertramp. And that's in large part because it *wasn't* written as a breakup song. On the other hand, my other top picks (Tears Dry On Their Own by Amy Winehouse and Never Forget You by the Noisettes) were written as breakup songs.

Note that the electoral side is that important given how awful this proposal is but... I am sure the sight of sobbing children being handcuffed and dragged onto planes will boost the Government's standing with the progressive voters we're losing. Fuck. This.

While inequality remains high by both historical and global standards, it's not been rising for a while, so it's not really possible to blame it for the malaise of the last 18 years. I'm now more convinced then ever that low and stagnant growth is the main reason for our economic issues since 2008.

One thing I really value about living in the UK is the fact that we are a high trust, broadly tolerant nation. It's one of those little things that helps grease the wheels of everything else good about your society.

'It is quite difficult to defend what you didn't build' is exactly why giving someone else's presentation never works as well as it should. Explaining why an answer is right is *at least* as important as being right in the first place. Douglas Adams understood and parodied that back in the 70s.

I (perhaps controversially) broadly agree with this. There's always been a disconnect in Gaming culture between those who enjoy games as primarily a narrative form vs those who enjoy games as primarily a form of play. This is very obvious in discussions around games like Dark Souls or Morrowind.

I've been sent this absolutely *criminal* bar chart from back down in Surrey, there's so much wrong with it I could make a list. Interesting also that the Conservatives are putting out squeeze messaging on Reform voters.

Not gonna lie: much less exciting story than the headline made it sound

you are not prepared for the soundtrack

This is an excellent and serious reponse to my earlier thread on the Greens One thing I didn't make clear then but will now, is that that the Gorton and Denton by-election is clear proof that the Greens have 'arrived' as a major party in British politics. Whatever happens next, that isn't changing

I've said it before, but growing up in Surrey in the 2000s meant that my perception of the Tories was as what I'd now call a 'National Liberal' party, pro-free trade, free markets and accepting the social change of modern Britain. I never voted for Cameron, but he got what was going on there.

I know I've posted a lot about this in the past (and I'm writing an article comparing the two parties at the moment), but I just don't think the Greens can be the main centre-left party. The fundemental issue for them is that they're more left than centre, which will put off a lot of ex-Lab voters.

So this gets: Greens + Lib Dems to 227 seats Greens + Lib Dems + Labour to 267 seats Greens + Lib Dems + Labour + Plaid + SNP to 327 seats (Majority of 1!) Reform + Con to 286 (40 seats short of a majority) In reality this would lead to another election almost immediately, no viable government.

This is a relatively small but significant development, and it's to the good. The governing party should never be able to rewrite the electoral commission's writ on its own.

I'm really not sure this line works as well as Farage thinks it does. It sounds petty and vindictive, which is the mark of a bad loser, and the British public still cares about fair play. He needs to sound like a credible contender for PM, not someone carping from the sidelines.

Are you in York tomorrow night? Or could you be? Come along to @yorkstjohn.bsky.social at 6.30pm, where I'll be talking about and discussing my new book on the Blair governments... It'll be great! More details below. 👇 www.yorksj.ac.uk/events/upcom...

The Middle East isn't some distant "over there" for Europe. It's part of our shared Mediterranean world.

The only way this could be any more of a banter timeline outcome is if the Tories didn't have enough seats to form a majority coalition with Reform. This is a proper 1923 level electoral situation, total collapse of FPTP in the face of seven(!!) viable Westminister parties.

Well-thought out thread here. While it’s hard to imagine Reform’s buildup collapses post-Farage, it’s also hard to imagine he built a leadership team able to succeed him.

Oh Reform clearly has a niche, populist right wing parties aren't going away. That doesn't mean Reform are bolted on guaranteed to become the main right wing party though. It's the difference between being a 10-15% proposition (as they were under Tice) and a contender for majority power.

This is one of those questions I go back and forth on a lot. I'm still not sure whether I think Reform has staying power. Points in Favour: - They are currently the main right wing party in both the polls and the mind of the public - Farage has a core personal appeal that grounds them as a party

A really fabulous article which sets out the policy trade-offs & complexities at the heart of the English Devolution debate very clearly. While Devolution can unlock economic growth, I'm very much on the democratic end of the Devolution spectrum. We need to balance regional planning & diversity. 🌹🔶️

Weekend re-up of my most recent article! See how Labour and Lib Dem ideas around devolution can be synthesised together to created a broad, centre-left framework for English devolution policy. Free to Read

Reposting this as it gave me a bit of joy on a terrible day for the world I care about. I havent played Pokémon since the Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald days, but I remember liking Tentacruel quite a lot (mostly because they were my go to Pokémon for traveling on water).

Of course, it is unlawful. Even the "pre-emptive" justification is half-hearted guff. Of course, it is stupid. Wise US politicians once realised a rules-based international order was in their interests. That is being thrown away. And most of all, and regardless of the above, it is wrong.

the US once again sending the message loud and clear: never negotiate, just get nukes. Never compromise, just get nukes. Never give in to sanctions, just get nukes. what could go wrong

So, I don't think this is really fair as a criticism *of this specific by-election*, given that the Lib Dems wisely peaced out and left the floor open to the Greens. Overall though, I do think there is a fair critique that they aren't doing enough to appeal outside of the South of England.

...It is 'bold, minister' to say this about a party that has a) been in government this century, b) was level pegging with Labour in 2019 and c) won the largest number of seats for a third party in a century only a year and a half ago. We're not in the 1970s anymore.

I think the issue with a lot of analysis around Reform is that it gets forgotten that Reform is very much a minority position. They are the largest single party by vote share, but are barely able to crack 30% (and are trending downwards). Cameron got 37% in 2015, and barely squeaked a win.

It’s not. Its political results are that of a standard European democracy in 2026, mediated through a worse electoral system.

As other people have noted in this thread, there is a big internal divide here. There are definitely young Europeans interested in moving to the US, but they are mostly concentrated in AI/Tech and (altho less so) Finance. Outside of those industries, the US is deeply unpopular and getting more so.

A thought I've been developing more and more over this parliament is that right and left voters tend to think about politics in different ways. Right wing voters tend to value competence above all else, while left wing voters tend to value morality.

Labour’s *majority* in Gorton and Denton in 2024 – just 19 months ago – was 13,000+. Tonight it got fewer than 10,000 votes total, on an almost identical turnout. In its heartland. That’s what a collapse of your core vote looks like.

In the end it wasn't even close. This is a big, big defeat for Labour, and a clear sign their current strategy isn't working. Spare a thought also for the Tories, who in the face of the least popular left wing government this century, somehow managed to lose their deposit.

Describe your favourite games poorly: You and your depressed polycule march around a continent killing off-brand orcs. In a faraway land a toothy serpent asks you to become a living Dyson sphere. A prince finds out he wiped his love's memory. He then punches himself in the face for ten hours.

So I have a theory about this. In 'Armies of Sand', Kenneth Pollack describes a few different types of Arab armies that existed in the 20th century. One kind is that of the 'Palace Guard'. A palace guard army is more or less what you'd expect, it's a defence force for the ruling elite.

As a comparision, the overall casualties here are approaching roughly double those of the UK during WW2 (750k) in a population which, while 3x larger, has far worse demographics. This isnt a war Russia can sustain. It is not winning.

One of my go-to background music creators has been racking up massive numbers over the last few years while labelling the music as [no AI]. Also ChatGPT has been around for 3/4 years, and we still haven't seen an AI written bestseller. Still too early to call, but AI art has clear limitations.

So this is an interesting question that deserves a serious answer. To summarise: The political argument is that the LDs have a very different political history to the Greens, and a merger wouldn't work. The electoral argument is that they can win where the Grns/Lab can't.

Excellent analysis from @anandmenon.bsky.social here that gets at something I've been thinking about since Reform began to gain steam in Scotland. To be sure Reform is technically a Unionist party, but it doesn't 'feel' like it is. The fact that 30% of its supporters are pro-Indy helps me get why.

"Show what you looked like before you joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine." Ukrainian Defenders share photos from before they joined the military and after. 📷: drewndel / Threads

An unusual first post of the year for me, as this time we're taking a look at the world of devolution policy. I argue that what is needed to draw together an increasingly fractious devolution debate is a synthesis of Labour (regional, top-down) and Lib Dem (local, bottom-up) ideals of devolution.

As someone who was at the premiere of this documentary, I highly recommend everyone watches it. The scene on the bridge under fire, the moment when the camera crew and Oz are detained by Russians and the final reveal of mass graves have been etched into my memory until this day.

I think there was a world where Brown gets an extra 20 seats and forms a coalition with the Lib Dems. But you'd still have the issue of an exhausted Labour government turning to the Libs in a loveless marriage of last resort to stay afloat. The historical parallel of which is 1978-9. So....yeah.

This overt sexual moralism is very un-British IMO. One thing I've been thinking more and more is that an underrated strength of the Tory Party from 1950-1979 was the acceptance of negative freedom that it absorbed from the old Liberals. Basically, 'do what you want, just not in public'.

It's been 4 years. That's four years too long. Slava Ukraini.

'Oh wow I've been writing for hours, I wonder how far I've got to go' *stares despondently at the word count that tell me I've not even written 1,000 words yet*

a year is a long time in politics

Breaking news: Peter Mandelson has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office following claims he leaked confidential UK government memos to Jeffrey Epstein ft.trib.al/cRr1m4T