Conditional Probabilities Are Hard, Example #1073: WSJ seemingly equates "P(X|Y) is low" (post text) with "P(Y|X) is low" (headline text). (With the nuance that, in this case, both are presumably true, even though one need not imply the other!)

The University of Virginia became the fifth school to rebuff a White House proposal to give universities preferential treatment if they uphold a set of government demands.

Wahoowa

This is what is happening when the cameras are running

Do you know anyone that has benefitted from prescription drugs? What if these drugs were not available for you or your loved ones? Cuts to federal science funding mean delays for new treatments and cures. Tell Congress: Science saves lives #SpeakUp4Science https://bit.ly/4mgBMQ9

My lab at UCLA is hiring 1-2 PhD students this cycle! Join us to work at the intersection of cognitive science and AI applied to pressing societal challenges like climate change. More info about me: rachit-dubey.github.io My lab: ucla-cocopol.github.io Please help repost/spread the word!

this is simply extortion and theft of state monies

Terence Tao (@teorth.bsky.social) has written a thread on Mastodon about the impact of the federal grant freeze to UCLA, particularly to his own field of Mathematics. UCLA's IPAM (Institute of Pure and Applied Mathematics) could shut down entirely mathstodon.xyz/@tao/1149568...

The sixth HotFresh recommended paper is: Mirny, D. J., & Spiller, S. A. (2025) Source memory is more accurate for opinions than for facts, Journal of Consumer Research. academic.oup.com/jcr/advance-...

Kudos to Jim Ryan for a terrific tenure as the President of UVA. Again, this is not normal. We should all be alarmed.

When things get difficult over the next few years remember today. The number of people who want democracy vastly outnumber the people who want a king.

In other, joyous news out of Westwood… Congratulations UCLA Anderson grads! Delighted I had the opportunity to announce 7 new Anderson Ph.D.’s, including hooding Dr. David Dolifka! #UCLA2025 #GoBruins

Via "One First," my quick write-up of President Trump's "Presidential Memorandum" purporting to federalize 2000 California National Guard troops; the relevant legal authorities for doing so; and how the move is both a modest *and* dangerous escalation of what's going on in and around Los Angeles:

Not to pick on this post, but a good example of why base populations (what group of people you're talking about) are so important, and how easily that detail can get muddled in retelling -- the article says "Nearly a quarter of **consumers using buy now, pay later loans** finance groceries"

This is a terrible self-own, particular at a time when we are trying to compete with China on AI, EV technology, etc. Not to mention that this will kill one of our strongest exports (higher ed), which a trade-deficit-obsessed president should theoretically care about.

Trump team orders stop to new student visa interviews, as it weighs expanding social media vetting www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

Hundreds of National Science Foundation staffers turned out for a group photograph to celebrate the besieged agency’s 75th anniversary—despite efforts by NSF officials to prevent the picture from being taken. scim.ag/4jcGpIt

🎇It's #PubDay for THE HANDBOOK OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY (6e)!🎇 This is the latest edition of the most venerated institution in social psychology, dating back to 1954. Fifty definitive chapters, over 8,000 manuscript pages. (The TOC appears below.) And: IT'S 100% OPEN-ACCESS: www.the-HSP.com.🧵

How much of the change in predictions following White Smoke and before announcement is (a) rational market reactions (decision reached fairly quickly; more likely it was a predictable favorite), (b) concluding most-likely-as-more-likely without supporting information, or I guess (c) insider trading?

On 5/2, the @nytimes.com published a graphic showing the % change for each agency in Trump's proposed budget, compared to the 2025 budget. For my undergraduate class, I made a variant that gives $ amounts. It uses the NYT data. Happy to share w/ other instructors. DM or email if you want the ppt.

A new and fresh paper calls for a fresh start on a new platform. Hi y'all! 👋 Check out my paper with @spillersas.bsky.social and @krajbichlab.bsky.social - we look at the multi-faceted role of attention in opportunity cost neglect, using eye-tracking + computational modeling. Read more at the link!

We also find that people look less at the Buy option when there are explicit outside options. Overall, we identify two different attentional mechanisms by which the framing of opportunity costs (i.e., the outside options) impacts people's willingness to make purchases. 3/n

Across surpluses, people consistently purchase less with explicit outside options. Using a variant of the attentional DDM, we estimated separate attention discounts on the Buy and Don't Buy options. We find more discounting of the Buy option with explicit vs implicit costs. 2/n

New article on the role of attention in opportunity-cost neglect, with the fabulous Steph Smith and @spillersas.bsky.social. Outside options that are explicit (Keep Money) vs implicit (Don't Buy), attract more attention, both gaze and gaze effect on choice. 1/n authors.elsevier.com/c/1kycc_Ebvv...

I have signed the following letter with 103 of my colleagues from UCLA Law. It is modeled closely on the Harvard Law letter. Solidarity with all other faculty willing to speak out for the rule of law.

This is *incredible*

This came out of @dmirny.bsky.social's outstanding dissertation, and I'm so excited to see it out in the world! (Ungated version here: stephenaspiller.com/assets/Mirny...)

In other words, we find that people are more likely to misattribute facts (to incorrect sources) than they are to misattribute opinions… so next time you’re scratching your head, struggling to remember where a claim came from (as I so often am) it may be the claim itself that is to blame 😉

Encoding processes are important. Faced with new information, we encode associative links between sources and claims. As opinions tend to provide more information about a source than facts do, the encoded associative links are stronger, helping us to later recall who it was that said a given claim.

In such a noisy world, it can be difficult to remember who said what. In a new paper at @jcrnews.bsky.social, @spillersas.bsky.social and I find that source memory - the attribution of claims to their original sources - is more accurate for opinions than for facts. academic.oup.com/jcr/advance-...

Statement on academic freedom, diversity, equity and inclusion at the Journal of Consumer Research: consumerresearcher.com/academic-fre...

Universities: We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately

If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.

There has to be a better way

The competitive authoritarian playbook - make vague, illiberal proclamations and try to intimidate people with the possibility of selective prosecution or other forms of punishment

"Some people say, 'Oh, you're a hero,' " Harrison told NPR in 2015. "But I'm in a safe room, donating blood. They give me a cup of coffee and something to nibble on. And then I just go on my way. … No problem, no hardship." mensch

This is Trump’s pick to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

I am sad to share that all Retirement & Disability Research centers have been ordered to stop work. My fellowship will no longer exist, and the work of so many talented researchers and dedicated staff will be cut short. www.ssa.gov/news/press/r...

Endorse. After reading “The high cost of free parking,” it’s truly impossible to see the built environment in the same way. (According to people around me, apparently it’s also impossible for some of us to shut up about parking in virtually any social interaction)

"the high cost of free parking" is a book that legit rewired my brain. RIP to a great scholar

I'm deeply saddened to share that Donald Shoup passed away last night. He was the ideal academic—curious, methodical, and concerned with turning ideas into real-world change. TAing his parking course these past few years has one of the greatest honors of my life. Rest in peace, Shoup Dogg.

Gift link. You should read this. It is wrong on so, SO many different levels. It violates basic principles of research ethics in so many different ways. Leaving devices IN PEOPLE'S BODIES. Stopping treatments halfway through, with no one to contact if they get sick. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/h...

5calls.org gives easy access to phone numbers for Rep & Sen's, plus sample script for many issues. At a minimum, grants a Sunday mood-boost. (In SoCal, no question re: their position, but can ask them to make a fuss. Schiff & Padilla's DC voicemails full, but Padilla's local office took voicemails)

174 charged with using weapons or assaulting police. Think about what this says and means. It’s unbelievable