Today's SJDM Featured Paper is: Hagmann, D., Sajons, G. B., & Tinsley, C. H. (in press). Base rate neglect as a source of inaccurate statistical discrimination. Management Science. files.dhagmann.com/papers/2025_...

Today's SJDM Featured Paper is: Atir S. & Dunning D. A. (in press). Learning more than you can know: Introductory education produces overly expansive self-assessments of knowledge. Management Science. tinyurl.com/AtirDunning-...

Today's SJDM Featured Paper is: DeKay, M. L. (in press). Risky-choice framing effects persist when option descriptions are matched and complete: A replication and extension of DeKay and Dou (2024). Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. osf.io/preprints/ps...

Today's SJDM Featured Paper is: Dietvorst, B. J. (in press). Understanding people's preferences for predictions: People prioritize being right over minimizing how wrong they are in expectation. Management Science. doi.org/10.1287/mnsc...

Today's SJDM Featured Paper is: Vaz, A., Ingendahl, M., Mata, A., & Alves, H. (2025). "Stop the Count!" – How reporting partial election results fuels beliefs in election fraud. Psychological Science, 36(8), 676-688. doi.org/10.1177/0956...

The ad collab emerged from a discussion with Don at @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social about this paper: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... In the paper, Jabin & I try to address a longstanding problem for measuring overconfidence: One's level of overconfidence is highly dependent on the task in question.

The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is pleased to announce that the latest newsletter is ready for download: sjdm.org/newsletters/ This issue contains announcements, conferences, and jobs!

Congratulations to Hengchen Dai who is the winner of the 2026 Early Career Impact Award from the Federation of Associations in Behavioral and Brain Sciences! fabbs.org/about/early-...

Don also shared his template for declining review requests from journals that try to profit from our taxpayer-funded and volunteer #science: learnmoore.org/hotfresh.html That URL also links to a form to share your #HotFresh preprints, data, reviews, etc. to the @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social newsletter.

If you want to submit your research to HotFresh Research News or find a boilerplate letter to refuse reviewing for closed journals, visit this link learnmoore.org/hotfresh.html

Don Moore kicking off the 2025 Presidential Address at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference

For Sunday at the SJDM conference, please note the following changes to the program!

Before #MSFT offered "Facilitator" in Teams meetings, @dggoldst.bsky.social et al. developed something similar. People preferred their #statusQuo, but #AI facilitation - made people more open to both human and #LLM facilitation. - didn't seem to impact decisions More via doi.org/10.48550/arX...

Agreement can feel nice, but it may discourage reflection and understanding. Agreeing with someone about a policy (vs disagreeing) predicted lower - odds of asking, "Why?"
 - accuracy in predicting their preferences Follow Zhiyang (Bella) et al for the pub alert: scholar.google.com/citations?us...

How do people think about using #AI for #writing? Andras Molnar and Jiaqi Zhu found people didn’t suspect #LLM use without cues or reminders, which DID hinder impressions (2 experiments, N = 1301, 8 contexts). Follow for the pub alert: www.researchgate.net/profile/Jiaq... #jobMarket #socialPsych

Rating scales are vulnerable to biases that reduce predictive power. Can #languageModels do better by analyzing open-ended responses? @adaaka.bsky.social found such #LLM measures were more predictive and less vulnerable to #bias in 7 preregistered studies (N = 2326). #psychometrics #tech #PhilSci

Another way to see inside the black box of #decisionMaking involves recording people thinking aloud during decisions. @aaronlob.bsky.social and @renatofrey.mstdn.science.ap.brid.gy had #AI predict people’s perceptions from their verbalizations (N = 178). The correlations ranged from ≅0.3 to ≅0.6.

Many medical systems remind patients about their #health gaps with text messages. Would adding info about the risks or available benefits increase response rates? Not in the experiments from Jose Arellano Martorellet et al.! Follow to get the publication alert: scholar.google.com/citations?us...

Many cognitive scientists change decisions; few look in the black box to see HOW. Steph Smith demoed such #processTracing ...in #Qualtrics! …without any coding! Find everything you need at github.com/QMT-code/QMT Follow her work at www.researchgate.net/profile/Step... #eyeTracking #mouseTracking

Hooray! Katy, we need a megastudy to get people to tag @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social here and @sjdm_tweets on X

@sjdm-tweets.bsky.social Why does "1-in-X" (e.g., 1 in 50 vs. 20 in 1000) feel riskier? The answer: It's the availability heuristic! We found that the 1-in-X ratio is easier to mentally visualize and recall examples for. Risk Communication Poster at #SJDM2025 in Denver, Colorado!

Repost this to let people know you are at SJDM 2025 in Denver! Tag @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social if you would like us to repost stuff that you post! #SJDM2025

If you're attending @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social or @psychonomicsociety.bsky.social this week, do not print your poster on site at the convention center -- it's $100 more! There's a FedEx a short walking distance away. Please tell your students!!

🧠🏔️ Below I'll share mine and others' presentations from the Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference in #Denver. Did you attend a session I missed? Did I fail to tag a presenter? Feel free to add to the thread! Long live #openAccess conferencing. #SJDM #SJDM25 @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social

Jon Kleinberg gave a great keynote at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2025 conference in Denver. Tag @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social if you would like us to repost you! #SJDM2025

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Yang, A. X., & Teow, J. (2025). Framing affects postdecision preferences through self-preference inferences (and probably not dissonance). Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 154(2), 574–595. doi.org/10.1037/xge0...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Winet, Y., & Davenport, D. (2025). Responsibility Targeting Shapes Collective Moral Judgment. SSRN. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Maier, M., Harris, A. J. L., Kellen, D., & Singmann, H. (2025). Decision making under extinction risk. Cognitive Psychology, 159. doi.org/10.1016/j.co...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Duckworth et al (2025). A national megastudy shows that email nudges to elementary school teachers boost student math achievement, particularly when personalized. PNAS, 122(13), e2418616122. doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Naborn, J., & Bogard, J. E. (2025). EXPRESS: The Pick-the-Winner-Picker Heuristic: Preference for Categorically Correct Forecasts. Journal of Marketing Research. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Szaszi, B., Goldstein, D. G., Soman, D., & Michie, S. (2025). Generalizability of choice architecture interventions. Nature Reviews Psychology, 4(8), 518–529. doi.org/10.1038/s441...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Sun, C., & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2025). Prediction that conflicts with judgment: The low absolute likelihood effect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Heck, P. R., Benjamin, D. J., Simons, D. J., & Chabris, C. F. (2025). Overconfidence Persists Despite Years of Accurate, Precise, Public, and Continuous Feedback: Two Studies of Tournament Chess Players. doi.org/10.1177/0956...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Gaertig, C., & Simmons, J. P. (2025). Why (and When) Are Uncertain Price Promotions More Effective Than Equivalent Sure Discounts? Journal of Consumer Research. doi.org/10.1093/jcr/...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Pleskac, T. J., Kyung, E. J., Chapman, G. B., & Urminsky, O. (2025). Blinded versus Unblinded Review: A Field Study on the Equity of Peer-Review Processes. Management Science. doi.org/10.1287/mnsc...

Today's HotFresh recommended paper is: Dorison, C. A., & Charlesworth, T. E. S. (2025). What Is Rationality, Whom Is It Ascribed To, and Why Does It Matter? Evidence From Internet Text for 66 Social Groups and 101 Occupations. Psychological Science, 36(9), 713-731. doi.org/10.1177/0956...

The sixth HotFresh recommended paper is: Mirny, D. J., & Spiller, S. A. (2025) Source memory is more accurate for opinions than for facts, Journal of Consumer Research. academic.oup.com/jcr/advance-...

The 5th HotFresh recommended paper is: Kirgios, E. L., Silver, I., & Chang, E. H. (2025) Does communicating measurable diversity goals attract or repel historically marginalized job applicants? Evidence from the lab and field, J Experimental Psychology: General psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...

The fourth HotFresh recommended paper is: Himmelstein, M., Zhu, S., Petrov, N., Karger, E., Helmer, J., Livnat, S., Bennett, A., Hedley, P., Tetlock, P. (2025). The forecasting proficiency test: A general use assessment of forecasting ability. [link] osf.io/preprints/ps...

The third HotFresh recommended paper is: Hu, B., Gaertig, C., & Dietvorst, B. J. (2024). How should time estimates be structured to increase customer satisfaction? Management Science pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10....

The second HotFresh recommended paper is: Pink, S. L., Cervantez, J., Kirgios, E. L., Chang, E. H., Milkman, K. L. (2025). Can stereotype reactance prompt women to compete? A field experiment, Organization Science. pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/...

SJDM HotFresh is live! Our first recommended paper is: Morris, A., Carlson, R.W., Kober, H., Crockett, M.J. (2025). Introspective access to value-based multi-attribute choice processes, Nature Communications, 16, 3733. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is pleased to announce that the latest newsletter is ready for download: sjdm.org/newsletters/ This issue contains announcements, conferences, jobs, and a new section entitled HotFresh Research News!

The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is pleased to announce that the latest newsletter is ready for download: sjdm.org/newsletters/

Micro sabbaticals for early career faculty at Princeton Psych

Summer Institute in Bounded Rationality, Berlin, 2025 www.decisionsciencenews.com?p=7210

The CHI Human-Centered Explainable AI Workshop is back! Paper submissions: Feb 20 hcxai.jimdosite.com

Just came back from my first @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social conference with a 3rd place in the Student Poster Award 🎉 Check out my poster on misperceptions of ideological complexity and partisan animosity here: maxspohn.com/IdeologicalC... Thanks @juliaminson.bsky.social @charliedorison.bsky.social

Congrats to our very own @maxspohn.bsky.social for winning 3rd place in the Best Student Poster Award at @sjdm-tweets.bsky.social! 🏆 His research shows how partisans misjudge out-group ideological complexity, fueling distrust. Insights offer ways to reduce animosity. maxspohn.com/IdeologicalC...