New from me: Russ Vought is using federal employees as hostages in federal shutdown negotiations, threatening mass firings if Dems do not accept Trump's terms. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court just allowed Vought to impose a de facto impoundment of foreign aid. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/shutdown-h...

🧵 Big changes may be coming to disability benefits. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a rule that could reshape how eligibility is determined for SSDI and SSI. Here’s what you need to know—and why it matters. www.urban.org/research/pub...

Thanks to the National Association of Business Economists for this important statement. #NumbersDay #StandWithBLS #EconSky www.linkedin.com/posts/nation...

A quick bit of journalism reveals that at least three members of Trump's cabinet claimed more than one property as their primary residence, and I'm starting to wonder whether Trump's attacks on Lisa Cook reflect a sincere concern about mortgage fraud. www.propublica.org/article/trum...

Critical reading for #JobsDay.

The lies' laughable implausibility is a feature, not a bug. They're not trying to convince discerning, skeptical, fact-based people. They're trying to give supporters a fantasy that validates their feelings and creates a sort of loyalty test, while flaunting the absurdity in everyone else's faces.

Please comment: Some source material to draw from here: donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-death-...

Update: Appeals court overturns 90-years-settled law to make American employees' legal rights to speak up & act together to improve their jobs subject to presidential veto. Huge victory handed to Musk, Bezos, & other bosses. Big loss for labor. SCOTUS likely upholds prospect.org/justice/2025...

They specifically uploaded the 'NUMIDENT' file. This record includes your name, social security number, your birth date, your birth place, your parents' names and social security numbers, gender, and immigration status. The security threat is profound.

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)? Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

If you had a sense that kicking people off of Medicaid would be bad for their health, that is only scratching the surface of how bad Trump's policies will be for public health in America. @jbarofsky.bsky.social‬ & @pamherd.bsky.social do a deep dive. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-trumps...

@truesdale.bsky.social and I were happy to have @washingtonpost.com highlight our thoughts on Medicaid work requirements. There is even more cause for concern now the bill has become law. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

If you've written a dissertation about work, employment, unemployment, social insurance, or labor markets, you've already done the work -- now submit to the Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award! Open to all disciplines. #EconSky #Sociology #PoliSky #PolicySky

I see a lot of room for optimism here. Not even the majority of Republicans are in favor of this bill. Opposition to the bill rises the more people learn about it. Tax cuts for people making above $200k have scant support, same with money for immigrant detention centers. wapo.st/4efAykY

This searchable map of No Kings marches to join on Saturday is impressively crowded: www.nokings.org#map

Savings from slashing science and medical research and firing government employees are not even detectable on the proposed budget compared to extending tax cuts and slashing Medicaid, food for the poor

We're thrilled to announce three outstanding researchers are joining the Upjohn Institute: Chloe Gibbs @chloergibbs.bsky.social and Monique Davis @monique-e-davis.bsky.social in August and Ethan Jenkins June 2. Welcome! #laboreconomics #econsky

I wish journalists would stop framing political news as wins or losses for politicians or political parties. It’s an abrogation of our mission. Why do we keep doing this? Is the spending bill a win or loss for the American people? Who does it help? Who does it hurt? Is it sound policy? Fiscally?

My argument is, in the absence of being able to perfectly retro-cast - let alone forecast! - Dems ought to aim for doing what they think is normatively good and right, which includes being pro-redistribution & pro-small-d-democracy and especially aiming to include more people in electoral politics.

A huge problem with the way we discuss politics is that polite society abhors words like “racist” as impolite slurs rather than viewing them as analytical terms - which is why we are constantly asked to please not call those pursuing a political project of re-segregation racists or segregationists.

Because I study older workers, I had six months of phone calls from media asking if Biden was too old. What I said then: this is about competence, not age. Biden's and Trump's previous actions in office tell you everything you need to know. Maybe that's why none of those reporters quoted me 🤔

The Republican plan to bury Medicaid recipients in paperwork Proposed work requirements for aid won’t create jobs, but they will kick the working poor off health care www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

They're not work requirements, they're work REPORTING requirements. @mmilleradams.bsky.social and I explain why the difference matters wapo.st/4klmVlX

It's not a deal, because the president can't make trade "deals" on his own, & every media outlet should stop being lazy by using "deal" or "agreement" in the headline & instead do journalism & explain to readers/viewers that all of this is wildly illegal & not how it works. bsky.app/profile/mcop...

If you're feeling afraid of what fresh madness is about to come down the pike, remember that the future is not yet written... and read every single one of these local stories

Block early, block often, don't feed the trolls and the bots, keep Bluesky useful!

Someone just say immigration is good actually! Higher Education is good actually! Paying higher tax is good actually!

3/ KFF Survey: Majorities of Democrats and Independents Oppose Cuts to Staff at Major Federal Health Agencies

Earlier today, AAAS CEO Sudip Parikh testified as a bipartisan witness before the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, warning that without immediate action, the U.S. runs the risk of losing its position as a global leader in biomedical research and innovation.

I really wish reporters would stop saying that there is an effort by the Trump administration to combat antisemitism. It is quite the opposite. There is an effort to foment antisemitism. forward.com/fast-forward...

University leaders need to understand: they are holding INCREDIBLY good cards. It is so rare in today's polarized era to have the support of 70+ percent of the public against the Trump admiministration on anything. Universities have that—AND winning legal arguments.

THURSDAY: While Trump, Musk, and Republicans gut workers’ rights and sell our country out for profit, we’re teaming up with a coalition of organizations for a nationwide day of mobilization. Please join us on May Day: maydaystrong.org?utm_source=i...

For autocrats, chaos is a feature, not a bug. Autocrats take advantage of chaos -- and the fear it generates -- to convince people that they must give up their civil rights. If there isn't an emergency, autocrats manufacture one.

I have a new paper out! "Should Social Insurance Programs Count as Wealth? Augmented Wealth in Research and Policy." Published yesterday in Socio-Economic Review @sasemeeting.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/ser/...

Our cover this week.

Please consider writing a comment on this proposed rule. It will affect potential legal challenges. The rule is an enormous threat to the federal economic statistical agencies and all other forms of civil service professionalism across every agency.

The House & Senate majorities have immense responsibility for enabling this administration. Every day. Every decision. They permit it. They enable it. They own it.

@upjohninstitute.bsky.social is a great place to work with good people on interesting research. We're looking for a new full-time, permanent RA. Kalamazoo is cool, too. Reasonable cost of living and probably more microbreweries per capita than oh, say, around 92% of cities its size.

Goal: Crush universities Need a policy tool: Civil Rights Act Title VI gives tools to stop funding to universities if they violate someone's civil rights. Need a violation to allege: Use the Jews! Using us as a wedge to attack free speech & inquiry does not protect us. bsky.app/profile/cram...

Pulling every dumb, dangerous lever in reach.

The morning after the election, I had a panicked thought: “My threat model is wrong.” I’d been giving privacy advice for years, but my counsel would not protect against an authoritarian president seeking revenge against political enemies. Tyranny was going to require a new threat model.

Florida officials are demanding that universities send lists of all research that faculty/staff have published or publicly shared in the last 6 years, even if it wasn't publicly funded. It's not clear what they'll do with the lists, but my bet is on nothing good. www.tampabay.com/news/educati...

Don’t overthink this. He’s asking for bribes.

Alternative headline: Acting Head of IRS Resigns Rather Than Break the Law

Hillary Clinton: “Remember: Republicans in Congress can put a stop to this at any time.”

Trump says his tariffs will raise $6 trillion. Assuming that's over 10 years, that's $600 billion per year. There are 134 million households, so this is nearly $5,000 per household per year. And it's like a sales tax, so it's a flat tax. A huge hit to the budgets of working folks.

How to leak to a journalist! featuring a bunch of good advice from those who know: @marisakabas.bsky.social @amandabecker.bsky.social @jeffhorwitz.bsky.social @rmac.bsky.social @swin24.bsky.social @juliaangwin.com @benmullin.bsky.social & @maxtani.bsky.social