The majority party in the legislature needed to modestly compromise on a budget, but instead the chief executive has shut down the government, threatened to open it only if the minority agrees to disenfranchise tens of millions of voters, & now threatens to call the military into airports.

Steps in Trump war rhetoric: 1. We don’t have to play by the rules in war 2. We won the war 3. If you go by the rules I just made up we won 4. No fair

this is the quintessential example of what Bruce Schneier and I call a "common knowledge attack" on democracy. It isn't just that the fake comments can masquerade as real ones. It's that flooding the zone makes public commenting _as a whole_ unreliable and readily dismissed, even from real people.

"I don’t back down when I get bullied. I fight harder. Everyone I see out here is like, What do you think—we’re gonna quit? We live here." www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/202...

It’s taken all hands: Nearly 30,000 “constitutional observers,” plus tens of thousands on the streets to film agents, deliver groceries, and accompany neighbors to school or church. They've shown the world how to fight back—without resorting to the violence being used against them. trib.al/IwlSS56

In 2022, I met up with a friend working in the administration. I wanted to treat him to brunch. But he and I have similar interests and someday I might want something from his department. So he wouldn't let me pay for his $13 plate of eggs and bacon. That's how the ethics rules worked.

New from me: It is not just that the US is experiencing democratic backsliding. Authoritarianism has emerged more quickly than in other benchmark countries. This graph from John Burn-Murdoch sums it up. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/autocracy-...

Harvard professor Steven Levitsky, who studies democracy backsliding, on Don Lemon's arrest: “This is a new dimension. In democracies, journalists don't get arrested. In authoritarian regimes, journalists get arrested." More in @status.news: www.status.news/p/don-lemon-...

Over 300,000 Americans demanded that Sen. Crapo investigate DOGE's theft of our data. He is feeling the pressure — but we need a full Congressional investigation, not just a letter.

One court decision, two different headlines. Guardian on the left, NY Times on the right. Which one more directly conveys information and the stakes to the reader?

A lot of government, especially at the federal level, is stopping bad things from happening. It is hard to explain its value when the bad thing does not happen. Take it away, and broader societal risks increase, but the effects may take a while to emerge, and will be contested by those cutting govt.

Minnesotans are standing up against this federal lawlessness. Please stand with us. Call your U.S. elected officials and tell them to stop DHS's lawlessness & disruption. They are here now but they could head toward your family next. bsky.app/profile/atru...

BREAKING: We've found 40+ cases of agents using banned chokeholds & other moves that can cut off breathing People have had seizures. They passed out. “I felt like I was going to die” said 16-yr-old citizen Admin won't say whether any agents have been punished www.propublica.org/article/vide...

NEW paper on SSI youth transitioning to adulthood: More than 4 in 10 low-income disabled children receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits lose eligibility when they turn 18, even though many continue to have work-limiting health conditions. 🧵 www.cbpp.org/research/soc...

Grim new analysis from KFF: The administration's move to re-adopt the public charge rule could have a chilling effect that leads to several million people dropping Medicaid coverage — including tens of thousands of citizen children www.kff.org/medicaid/pot...

Big new U.S. job quality survey just dropped. From Gallup, my @upjohninstitute.bsky.social colleagues Sue Houseman & @truesdale.bsky.social & others. Data will be public & longitudinal. finance.yahoo.com/news/landmar...

Less than half of U.S. workers hold a quality job with predictable schedules, safety & respect, a voice at work, and room for advancement. The Upjohn Institute partnered on a new survey revealing critical gaps in job quality and why they matter. Read more: #Jobs #Workforce #econsky #JobQuality

New from me: Russ Vought is using federal employees as hostages in federal shutdown negotiations, threatening mass firings if Dems do not accept Trump's terms. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court just allowed Vought to impose a de facto impoundment of foreign aid. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/shutdown-h...

🧵 Big changes may be coming to disability benefits. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a rule that could reshape how eligibility is determined for SSDI and SSI. Here’s what you need to know—and why it matters. www.urban.org/research/pub...

Thanks to the National Association of Business Economists for this important statement. #NumbersDay #StandWithBLS #EconSky www.linkedin.com/posts/nation...

A quick bit of journalism reveals that at least three members of Trump's cabinet claimed more than one property as their primary residence, and I'm starting to wonder whether Trump's attacks on Lisa Cook reflect a sincere concern about mortgage fraud. www.propublica.org/article/trum...

Critical reading for #JobsDay.

The lies' laughable implausibility is a feature, not a bug. They're not trying to convince discerning, skeptical, fact-based people. They're trying to give supporters a fantasy that validates their feelings and creates a sort of loyalty test, while flaunting the absurdity in everyone else's faces.

Please comment: Some source material to draw from here: donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-death-...

Update: Appeals court overturns 90-years-settled law to make American employees' legal rights to speak up & act together to improve their jobs subject to presidential veto. Huge victory handed to Musk, Bezos, & other bosses. Big loss for labor. SCOTUS likely upholds prospect.org/justice/2025...

They specifically uploaded the 'NUMIDENT' file. This record includes your name, social security number, your birth date, your birth place, your parents' names and social security numbers, gender, and immigration status. The security threat is profound.

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)? Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

If you had a sense that kicking people off of Medicaid would be bad for their health, that is only scratching the surface of how bad Trump's policies will be for public health in America. @jbarofsky.bsky.social‬ & @pamherd.bsky.social do a deep dive. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-trumps...

@truesdale.bsky.social and I were happy to have @washingtonpost.com highlight our thoughts on Medicaid work requirements. There is even more cause for concern now the bill has become law. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

If you've written a dissertation about work, employment, unemployment, social insurance, or labor markets, you've already done the work -- now submit to the Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award! Open to all disciplines. #EconSky #Sociology #PoliSky #PolicySky

I see a lot of room for optimism here. Not even the majority of Republicans are in favor of this bill. Opposition to the bill rises the more people learn about it. Tax cuts for people making above $200k have scant support, same with money for immigrant detention centers. wapo.st/4efAykY

This searchable map of No Kings marches to join on Saturday is impressively crowded: www.nokings.org#map

Savings from slashing science and medical research and firing government employees are not even detectable on the proposed budget compared to extending tax cuts and slashing Medicaid, food for the poor

We're thrilled to announce three outstanding researchers are joining the Upjohn Institute: Chloe Gibbs @chloergibbs.bsky.social and Monique Davis @monique-e-davis.bsky.social in August and Ethan Jenkins June 2. Welcome! #laboreconomics #econsky

I wish journalists would stop framing political news as wins or losses for politicians or political parties. It’s an abrogation of our mission. Why do we keep doing this? Is the spending bill a win or loss for the American people? Who does it help? Who does it hurt? Is it sound policy? Fiscally?

My argument is, in the absence of being able to perfectly retro-cast - let alone forecast! - Dems ought to aim for doing what they think is normatively good and right, which includes being pro-redistribution & pro-small-d-democracy and especially aiming to include more people in electoral politics.

A huge problem with the way we discuss politics is that polite society abhors words like “racist” as impolite slurs rather than viewing them as analytical terms - which is why we are constantly asked to please not call those pursuing a political project of re-segregation racists or segregationists.

Because I study older workers, I had six months of phone calls from media asking if Biden was too old. What I said then: this is about competence, not age. Biden's and Trump's previous actions in office tell you everything you need to know. Maybe that's why none of those reporters quoted me 🤔

The Republican plan to bury Medicaid recipients in paperwork Proposed work requirements for aid won’t create jobs, but they will kick the working poor off health care www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

They're not work requirements, they're work REPORTING requirements. @mmilleradams.bsky.social and I explain why the difference matters wapo.st/4klmVlX

It's not a deal, because the president can't make trade "deals" on his own, & every media outlet should stop being lazy by using "deal" or "agreement" in the headline & instead do journalism & explain to readers/viewers that all of this is wildly illegal & not how it works. bsky.app/profile/mcop...

If you're feeling afraid of what fresh madness is about to come down the pike, remember that the future is not yet written... and read every single one of these local stories

Block early, block often, don't feed the trolls and the bots, keep Bluesky useful!

Someone just say immigration is good actually! Higher Education is good actually! Paying higher tax is good actually!

3/ KFF Survey: Majorities of Democrats and Independents Oppose Cuts to Staff at Major Federal Health Agencies

Earlier today, AAAS CEO Sudip Parikh testified as a bipartisan witness before the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, warning that without immediate action, the U.S. runs the risk of losing its position as a global leader in biomedical research and innovation.

I really wish reporters would stop saying that there is an effort by the Trump administration to combat antisemitism. It is quite the opposite. There is an effort to foment antisemitism. forward.com/fast-forward...

University leaders need to understand: they are holding INCREDIBLY good cards. It is so rare in today's polarized era to have the support of 70+ percent of the public against the Trump admiministration on anything. Universities have that—AND winning legal arguments.