Stay in school kids. When your connecting flight is delayed, and you’re gaming out alternate routes, all that algebra is going to be really helpful.

Every day, school is a surprise. Me: "Hey! Let's go! The bus will be here any minute" Child: "What are you talking about??!?"

The Prosecutors and Politics Project at UNC School of Law has released a study analyzing over 11,000 bills changing criminal law in all 50 states between 2015 and 2018. Please join me and a very distinguished panel today, October 1, at Noon EST to discuss the implications. lnkd.in/etzAqi3M

Without looking closely, I have twelve papers in there. Since authors are not paid for academic articles, the irony would be that this would be my first check.

I think 83% of my emails are this exchange. Them: What time can you meet on Wednesday? Me: Anytime but 10 to 11 Them: Great, I'll send an invite for 10.

Crime control is undergoing a massive shift in the US and around the world, with surveillance tech advancing much faster than privacy protections. Bottom-line: the tech does reduce crime, and, it will likely infringe on civil liberties without careful regulation. www.forbes.com/sites/thomas...

Polls show most Americans think crime is rising because 'crime' is a catch-all term. But, there are dozens of evidence-based ways to reduce disorder and fight crime, and many of the most effective approaches do not involve the police. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

The Abundance agenda has real promise, but it does require a much more serious approach to crime. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

Spot on. I would note that there are 43 law enforcement agencies operating in Washington, the majority of which are federal. The Capitol Hill police alone have a force about the size of Cleveland's municipal police.

The president wants to “take back” DC, but the federal government never really let it go. It touches nearly every aspect of life in the city, making it harder for local officials to manage even the things Trump cares most about. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/u...

Such a bad take from the @nytimes.com. It ignores decades of evidence from police research, criminology, economics, etc. It's a barstool conversation based on a hazy recollection of college sociology. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/o...

It is hard to think of an idea with more staying power, and one with less empirical support, than the idea that the way to be tough on crime is to lock lots of people up. What I want to propose here is a much more effective way to be tough on crime. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

Gun violence continues to declining rapidly. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

Disorder has declined a lot since 2020. And it appears that a big increase in the size of local governments around the country is driving the change. This upends the long-held idea that disorder is driven almost exclusively by local policy. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

Philadelphia homicides leapt from 13 victims in April to 30 last month, according to new Philly Stat 360 update today: philly-stat-360.phila.gov/pages/homici...

Rehabs are full of young men who got hurt playing sports and end up down the rabbit hole. A young man whose sense of self-worth is tied to their athletic performance will find the quick fix unless those around them support a better path. They often don't. www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/brian...

I definitely did not have spending my whole day watching the men’s tennis finals on my to do list today.

Such a great essay. I'm not going to extract any great meta lessons, except I get why they wanted to give this a try, and I get why they gave up. www.washingtonpost.com/home/2025/06...

I really appreciate this as a compelling way to test for causality. Instead of a single outcome with a well identified model, multiple (as many as possible!!) tests of a simple pre-post. If you reject the null in every vector, then it is pretty well rejected.

Love this. The missing camper had fought through a blizzard and found shelter in an unlocked cabin. Resort owner Christopher Gutierrez had "left a cabin unlocked as a precaution for this exact situation where someone who is lost could seek shelter." abcnews.go.com/US/georgia-w...

It's really important to share good news right now. According to the Real-Time Crime Index and @jeffasher.bsky.social, murders are down nearly 22% across the country. That's a big deal and we should continue fighting to keep progress going.

When people say they don't like pie charts, I say, that's because you haven't seen the criminal justice system's greatest pie chart. Below, why people are incarcerated, the whole pie.

👉 This is an important issue of The Criminologist. It contains five pieces about academic publishing in our field, three of which involve #Criminology. The final essays by @SJacques83 on #OpenAccess and by Deena Isom on the #PeerReview crisis are also terrific. 👏 asc41.org/wp-content/u...

Crime in America spiked with the COVID-19 pandemic, then plummeted. Here are four reasons why. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

There's a nice symmetry to the murder decline as we approach the record low murder rate of 2014. We don't know what the causal mechanism is for today's decline, and we didn't have much grasp on the 2014 decline either!

Join me and colleagues for a webinar on tips and tricks on how to write a stellar submission for the 2025 National Research Conference for the Prevention of Firearm-Related Harms Wed May 21 12-1 MT / 2-3 ET "PICK ME! How to write a winning abstract" Register: ucdenver.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

There were 5 homicides in April in Baltimore. This is a new record for fewest homicides in a month in the city's modern history (since 1970). The previous low was 7, which happened in June of 1983, and April of 2014...

Need some travel advice. Would you base your travel plans on something Bill Bryson wrote? Specifically, would you not go somewhere because Bill Bryson, who hates many things, hated it? Thanks. I'll hang up and listen.

@jeffasher.bsky.social has a Substack today documenting huge ongoing declines in crime and violence across the US in early 2025. My new essay explores what we can learn from the ongoing crime drop. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

Theres a school if thought that the only macroeconomic factor that broadly effects crine is inflation. Crime is down everywhere, suggesting the main forces at work are national. This is also a warning if inflation spikes… open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

I wrote about the incredible variety of local explanations for the ongoing crime decline, and why that suggests a broader, national explanation. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

I’m sorry, the company is called what?

Guy in the hotel lobby mansplaining double bottoms and resistance levels to eye rolling colleagues. We’ve reached peak tariff.

Mackenzie Gore has 9 strikeouts through 4 innings. Nats are definitely going to the World Series.

New! on Substack. Love it or hate it, Klein and Thompson's Abundance provides a compelling model for criminal justice system reformers. johnkroman.substack.com/p/abundance-...

In case folks are interested in reading something that is not about politics. open.substack.com/pub/johnkrom...

This week marks 5 yrs since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. It upended all aspects of our lives, incl. the largest single-year increase in U.S. homicide rate ever recorded. New @americanprogress.bsky.social research explores theories for why homicides increased & then decreased🧵

In case you missed it, last week was a big one for us:

Arrows at the end of a trend line are a prediction. On what basis does FT make these predictions? Surely not the whole time series.

Sitting on a commuter plane like the one that flipped last night. The flight attendants talking loudly about the crash and how it could just happen on these planes is not helping morale.

While crimes are concentrated in a small number of places where local dynamics matter, overall crime is subject to big, national forces. And there isn't much research on these forces or policies. This from @brendenbeck.bsky.social is what we need more of...

In this essay, I argue that there is a huge gap in criminology--there is no macro field of inquiry. We need macro studies to identify broad policy levers equivalent to monetary and fiscal policy to respond to secular, cyclical crime problems. www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/tow...

Lots of bad news right now, but here's one bright spot. In 2024, Camden, NJ saw a 40 year low in homicides. In 2012, the city was dubbed the "Murder Capital of the World." Remarkable case of the police and the community working together to create lasting change. www.tapinto.net/towns/camden...

My cultural relevance is empirically affirmed. With the TikTok shutdown and an influx of news Bluesky users, I received: <opens envelope> <wipes at a single tear> No new followers. To those already on board, my hand-crafted, typewritten essays are still available at JohnKRoman.Substack.com

This article made me incandescently happy. Thank you @williamfleitch.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

Crime dropped in 2024. How much? Record-breaking amounts in several categories. www.norc.org/research/lib...

New paper in @JAMA Network Open (w/ Chandler Hall & Nick Wilson) looks at gun violence trends in US cities during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find variation in both the timing & surge of gun violence between cities. Read it Open Access here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Should I point out that cargo theft and other supply chain theft plus employee fraud and theft is a much bigger threat to the bottom line than shoplifting or nah.

Americans bought more guns overall during the pandemic, NORC polling found. One in 20 American adults bought a gun for the first time between March 2020– March 2022. Explore how this finding fits into the larger patterns of gun ownership in America.

My forecast for crime and violence in 2025. After two exceptional years of rapidly declining violence, I expect a much smaller decline in 2025. Overall, modestly good news. johnkroman.substack.com/p/a-forecast...