Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference. #HSF25

"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime." Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social

Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for IISS 👇 www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...

An exceptionally fluid moment in international relations. I am more cautiously optimistic than many. 🧵👇 /1 www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Personal news, which I rarely share here. My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others". My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.

Becky Anderson asked me about Trump's latest outburst against Putin. "As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."

If you need a bit of a primer on this electronic war stuff, I've got you covered: www.wired.com/story/electr...

Never thought I'd see a potato shortage in Belarus.

Personal news, which I rarely share here. Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.

"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate." @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender" www.iiss.org/online-analy...

What is stopping Europe from taking Russian Central Bank assets, frozen since February 2022?

Who is doing research on prospects for more US LNG exports to Europe? Technical/econ/pol etc dimensions.

Europe fears US will withdraw commitments and resources from Ukraine, and perhaps the continent. But it can craft a diplomatic strategy to avert this. What would it look like? /1 www.iiss.org/online-analy...

EU importing (now record levels of) LNG from Russia. More important still, importing plenty of Russian oil, via Indian refineries, despite its Russian oil embargo. US can replace this.

Spot on. The costs of permanent insecurity, or worse, will be far greater.

Anyone here in Bucharest this weekend?

New investigation with my @financialtimes.com colleagues: Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine on.ft.com/3CIJP6p

"Whatever it takes." Europe's population: c. 500m Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn = EUR 100 per citizen Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0 => Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month. We can do more.

There has been a concerted, systematic effort at mapping and sometimes sabotaging water infra in West Sweden, local police have shown. It is suspected to be going on nation-wide. Follows pattern of no thefts though there are expensive stuff, always manage to evade CCTV, usually professional.